cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jun 6, 2016 7:38:34 GMT
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,558
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Post by cibwr on Jun 7, 2016 8:30:20 GMT
Latest on the Leaders blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/06/06/the-latest-on-the-leaders/As well as asking about support for the parties, the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll included our standard question asking respondents to rate the party leaders on a 0-10 scale (where 0 means ‘strongly dislike’ and 10 means ‘strongly like). Respondents to our poll were asked to rate all the main UK and Welsh party leaders – including, for the first time, Neil Hamilton of UKIP. (An explanatory note. We decided to ask about Neil Hamilton this time although technically he is currently only leader of UKIP in the Welsh Assembly, and not of UKIP across Wales as a whole. We therefore also asked about Kirsty Williams, rather than Mark Williams, in relation to the Welsh Liberal Democrats.) So what did we find? First, as I have done in the past, I’d like to display the percentage of our sample who simply chose ‘Don’t Know’ for each leader. As I have mentioned before, while some people may do this because they are genuinely undecided about a leader, overall the percentage of Don’t Knows functions pretty well as a measure of the public visibility of a leader. Of course, a poll conducted soon after an Assembly election should see visibility of the leaders who took part in that election near its height. So here are the percentage of our sample who chose Don’t Know for each leader: David Cameron: 11% Jeremy Corbyn: 15% Tim Farron: 49% Nigel Farage: 14% Natalie Bennett: 45% Carwyn Jones: 25% Andrew RT Davies: 47% Kirsty Williams: 44% Leanne Wood: 30% Alice Hooker-Stroud: 67% Neil Hamilton: 35% As we can see, the vast majority of people have views about the Prime Minster, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage. The most well-known Welsh politicians, First Minister Carwyn Jones and Leanne Wood, lag some way behind these major UK-level politicians in public visibility, even in the immediate aftermath of a Welsh Assembly election. Other politicians lag much further behind – not only long-term Welsh leaders Andrew RT Davies and Kirsty Williams, but also Tim Farron and Natalie Bennett. For the future of the Liberal Democrats, the failure of their UK leader to achieve much recognition with the public must be a concern. Indeed, it is striking that Neil Hamilton appears to have greater public visibility than Davies, Williams, Farron or Bennett, and far greater recognition levels than were ever managed by Nathan Gill. Of course recognition is only generally a good thing if it is accompanied by a fair level of popularity. Here is the full list of the average scores out of ten given to each leader from those respondents who had a view about each one (and, in brackets, the change since our last Barometer poll, conducted immediately prior to the Assembly election.) David Cameron: 3.1 (+0.2) Jeremy Corbyn: 4.1 (-0.1) Tim Farron: 3.7 (-0.1) Nigel Farage: 3.4 (+0.2) Natalie Bennett: 3.9 (-0.1) Carwyn Jones: 4.7 (unchanged) Andrew RT Davies: 3.6 (+0.2) Kirsty Williams: 4.4 (+0.1) Leanne Wood: 4.8 (+0.2) Alice Hooker-Stroud: 3.4 (+0.1) Neil Hamilton: 2.1 For all of the leaders asked about in our previous poll we see only small changes since last time. None has moved up or down by more than 0.2 points on the 0-10 scale. The relative positions therefore remain barely altered, with Prime Minister Cameron continuing to be the most unpopular UK-level leader. Meanwhile, although the gap between her and Carwyn Jones is very small (and well within any statistical margin of error), it is interesting that this is the second poll done since the Assembly election – the other one being the Welsh Election Study post-election survey – to have ranked Leanne Wood as marginally the most popular political leader in Wales. The most interesting results here, though, are surely those concerning Neil Hamilton. Put simply, his rating are quite extraordinarily poor. I’ve looked back through the full run of past YouGov polls in Wales that have asked this form of question (and also asked my colleagues at YouGov to double-check), and cannot find any other leader ever scoring as low as an average of 2.1 out of 10. Indeed, no-one has ever scored nearly as badly as Mr Hamilton. Nor have I yet been able to find any other example anywhere in the world where, on this form of question, a political leader has been so poorly rated. Of course, 2.1 out of 10 is his average rating across everyone in our sample who offered a view on Mr Hamilton. Some people have suggested that what matters for parties like UKIP what matters is less the views of the whole public as those of the 20-25% or so of people who might consider voting for their party. This is rather true of Nigel Farage – loathed by many, but pretty popular among current and some potential UKIP supporters. (Nigel Farage averages 7.8 out of 10 amongst current UKIP supporters on the Assembly constituency vote, for instance). But for Mr Hamilton, even when you narrow things down the picture scarcely gets much better. Among current UKIP supporters on the Assembly constituency vote, Mr Hamilton averages only 3.4 out of 10 with them, and literally 0% of them score him as a 9 or 10 out of 10. It is difficult to place a positive interpretation on these findings. Probably the worst combination a political leader can manage it to be both visible and disliked. This, however, is what Neil Hamilton appears to have managed. The best thing I can say is that at least he hasn’t peaked too early in public popularity.
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jul 5, 2016 8:45:30 GMT
Two more Welsh polls today Welsh Political Barometer Poll blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/07/04/the-new-welsh-political-barometer-poll-3/Westminster voting intentions Labour 34% (-5) Conservative 23% (+1) Plaid Cymru 16% (+2) UKIP 16% (-2) Liberal Democrats 8% (+2) Others 3% (+1) which gives on a uniform swing Labour: 26 seats (gaining Gower and Vale of Clwyd, but losing Ynys Môn) Conservative: 9 seats (losing Gower and Vale of Clwyd) Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (gaining Ynys Môn) Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change) National Assembly Constituency voting intentions Labour 32% (-2) Plaid Cymru 23% (no change) Conservative 19% (+1) UKIP 16% (+1) Liberal Democrats 7% (no change) Others 3% (no change) National Assembly Regional List voting intentions Labour 29% (-3) Plaid Cymru 24% (+3) Conservative 18% (no change) UKIP 15% (+1) Liberal Democrats 6% (no change) Others 8% (+10) Which gives on a uniform swing Labour 26 seats (24 constituency, 2 regional) Plaid Cymru 15 seats (10 constituency, 5 regional) Conservative 10 seats (5 constituency, 5 regional) UKIP 8 seats (8 regional) Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency) North Wales: 2 Conservative, 2 UKIP Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 UKIP South Wales West: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP South Wales East: 2 UKIP, 2 Plaid Four constituency seats are projected to change hands, all gained by Plaid Cymru: Blaenau Gwent, Cardiff West and Llanelli from Labour, and Aberconwy from the Conservatives. Ratio Swing projects Plaid Cymru to gain Aberconwy from the Conservatives, as well as Blaenau Gwent, Cardiff West and Llanelli from Labour. But in addition, Ratio Swing also projects Plaid to pick up Caerphilly, again from Labour. Taking these constituency ‘results’ into account, Ratio Swing then projects the following outcome for the regional list seats. North Wales: 2 Conservative, 2 UKIP Mid & West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 UKIP South Wales West: 2 Plaid, 1 Conservative, 1 UKIP South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 1 Plaid, 1 UKIP South Wales East: 2 UKIP, 1 Conservative, 1 Plaid These are exactly the same regional results as projected by uniform swing, except in South Wales East. Labour 25 seats (23 constituency, 2 regional) Plaid Cymru 15 seats (11 constituency, 4 regional) Conservative 11 seats (5 constituency, 6 regional) UKIP 8 seats (8 regional) Liberal Democrats 1 seat (1 constituency)
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Jul 5, 2016 8:49:27 GMT
Poll on How People would vote now in an EU referendum and some additional interesting questions on independence.... blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/07/05/the-eu-referendum-afterthoughts-and-consequences/Headline is that the people in the sample voted 53:47 to leave and they now would vote 53:47 to remain. also if Wales could remain in the EU and became independent while the rest of the UK leaves the EU support for independence rises Yes: 28% No: 53% Would Not Vote/Don’t Know: 20%
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robert1
Conservative
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Post by robert1 on Sept 23, 2016 8:13:42 GMT
Latest poll
Labour 35 (+1) Con 29 (+6) UKIP 14 (-2) PC 13 (-3) LD 7 (-1) Other 2 (-1)
Changes since July
Not seen any Assembly figures yet.
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Lord Twaddleford
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Sept 23, 2016 8:22:35 GMT
Latest poll Labour 35 (+1) Con 29 (+6) UKIP 14 (-2) PC 13 (-3) LD 7 (-1) Other 2 (-1) Changes since July Not seen any Assembly figures yet. Polling company? Source?
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Sept 23, 2016 8:26:59 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 23, 2016 8:27:49 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 9, 2017 19:29:15 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 9, 2017 19:45:20 GMT
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Lord Twaddleford
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jan 10, 2017 11:45:24 GMT
It seems as if it may actually be worthwhile voting Labour on the List up here in North Wales, though I do honestly believe that the Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham look much better in red than they do in blue... Yet more predictably dire polling. I could honestly see the Tories overtaking us in Westminster voting intention in Wales at this rate.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 10, 2017 11:47:59 GMT
Even in their present strong position generally, Tories are only a point up on their 2015 GE score. Just saying.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 10, 2017 13:16:46 GMT
If you mean polls, I think they have in the 2008-09 period at least.
If you mean actual elections, the 2009 European elections had the Tories ahead ("first time since 1918" or something)
And, maybe even more embarrassingly, Labour only just edged out UKIP in 2014.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jan 10, 2017 13:23:22 GMT
Correct, but I think it'll be unlikely to happen again anytime soon at least.
Euro elections are always on a derisory turnout and won't occur in the UK again.
I was searching for an old post the other day and came across posts admiring the resilience and momentum the Welsh Conservatives had up until May 2015 and people wondering if the Scottish Conservatives could ever match that. 12 months later, Welsh Conservatives suffer a disappointing election, while their Scottish cousins outperform even their wildest expectations. Just showing how quickly things can change in politics.
The odds are Labour will have a new leader in Wales come 2020 and unless polls improve I would wager that Plaid may well do to.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 10, 2017 16:07:07 GMT
As already said, not since 1918 have Labour failed to be the biggest party in Wales at a GE.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jan 10, 2017 16:12:08 GMT
If you mean polls, I think they have in the 2008-09 period at least. If you mean actual elections, the 2009 European elections had the Tories ahead ("first time since 1918" or something) And, maybe even more embarrassingly, Labour only just edged out UKIP in 2014. I meant in terms of a general election. In terms of general elections I have a feeling the Conservatives have never 'won' a general election in Wales, but I could well be wrong. Certainly since 1885, according to Wikipedia.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jan 10, 2017 16:14:15 GMT
As already said, not since 1918 have Labour failed to be the biggest party in Wales at a GE. Labour still beat the Conservatives though. I believe the Conservatives only beat Labour in 1900.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2017 16:23:43 GMT
The Conservatives tended to be the largest party in Wales up until about the 1870s
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Post by Penddu on Apr 20, 2017 5:04:48 GMT
There is a Welsh Political Barometer poll out next week, but I think the fieldwork was done before the election call. But at least it will be soemthing to use as a baseleine.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 22, 2017 2:48:48 GMT
Roger Scully has confirmed that poll will be published on Monday - and includes some 'dramatic' figures.
Watch this space
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