Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2016 20:10:07 GMT
Worth remembering too that these are just the list vote figures. I've already seen Plaid members on Twitter celebrating getting the Labour lead down to 7% on the list and saying somewhat optimistically that they only need a 4% swing to elect Leanne Wood as First Minister. What we need now is some sort of visual design to show "Only Plaid can beat Labour here"
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 26, 2016 7:55:47 GMT
Yeah Plaid are just the Lib Dems with a funny accent.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Apr 27, 2016 8:45:07 GMT
www.itv.com/news/wales/2016-04-25/labour-ahead-as-battle-hots-up-for-second-place/Constituency (with change on last month): Labour: 33% (-2%) Plaid Cymru: 21% (no change) Conservatives: 19% (no change) UKIP: 15% (-2%) Liberal Democrats: 8% (+2%) Others: 3% (no change) List/Region: Labour: 29% (-2%) Plaid Cymru: 22% (+2%) Conservatives: 19% (-1%) UKIP: 15% (-1%) Liberal Democrats: 8% (+3%) Greens: 4% (no change) Others: 4% (+1%) www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/poll-projections-reveal-tiniest-margins-11247457#ICID=sharebar_twitterA story has emerged from this poll, not sure how the calculations have come about, but anyway... AberconwayThere, just 0.1% separates Tory Janet-Finch-Saunders, who has held the seat for the last five years, from her Plaid Cymru rival Trystan Lewis. According to YouGov’s most recent poll for ITV Wales and Cardiff University, the Conservatives are on 28.0% of the vote, against 27.9% for Plaid Cymru. Labour is a fairly distant third on 16.4% Cardiff NorthIn Cardiff North, which Labour’s Julie Morgan is defending against a strong challenge from local Tory councillor Jayne Cowan, Labour is on 38.3% against 36.4% for the Conservatives. Carmarthen West and South PembrokeshireCarmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire is currently held by the Conservatives’ Angela Burns. But according to the poll she is trailing to Plaid Cymru’s Simon Thomas. He is said to be on 31.4%, with Ms Burns on 29.9%. Labour is trailing on 21.2%. Brecon and RadnorshireThe constituency was won comfortably by the Conservatives in last year’s general election. Welsh Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams is on 40.4% with Tory Gary Price on 27.4%. Cardiff CentralIn Cardiff Central, where Labour took the seat from the Liberal Democrats in last year’s general election with a comfortable majority, the party’s Jenny Rathbone, who narrowly won it in 2011, is said to be trailing the Lib Dems’ Eluned Parrott by 35.1% to 28.6%. GowerIn Gower, Deputy Farming Minister Rebecca Evans, who has migrated from her previous regional seat in Mid and West Wales, leads former Welsh Conservative Party chairman Lyndon Jones by 38.8% to 23.9%. Vale of GlamorganLabour’s long-serving Cabinet Minister Jane Hutt leads Tory Ross England by 38.1% to 30.0% in Vale of Glamorgan Vale of ClwydVale of Clwyd was lost by Labour to the Tories at last year’s general election. The poll puts Labour’s incumbent Ann Jones ahead of the Conservatives’ Sam Rowlands by 41.4% to 27.3%. I am some what sceptical about both the figures and the methodology, but anyway.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Apr 27, 2016 13:29:55 GMT
Vale of ClwydVale of Clwyd was lost by Labour to the Tories at last year’s general election. The poll puts Labour’s incumbent Ann Jones ahead of the Conservatives’ Sam Rowlands by 41.4% to 27.3%. Ah, Vale of Clwyd, a seat I've been watching with great interest. Now, looking at the 2011 results for the Assembly seat it was: LAB: 11,691 votes - 50.7% CON: 7,680 votes - 33.3% Quite a substantial margin I think we can all agree. But, in the 2015 General for the Westminster seat it was: CON: 13,760 votes - 39.0% LAB: 13,523 votes - 38.4% A 237 vote difference, one of the more (but not most) marginal seats of that election. So, where am I going with this? The Wales Online polling figures show quite the gap between Labour and the Conservatives, but in my (untrained) view, personally I think the seat is going to be much closer. Now I am still cautiously confident that Labour will just manage to hold the seat, I also recognise that the Conservatives have a realistic chance of picking it up too. Now I don't know about anyone else, but I think that this seat will be as close this year as its Westminster counterpart was in 2015. Also, LAB-CON results for Vale of Clwyd from the 2007 Assembly election: LAB: 8,104 votes - 36.4% CON: 8,012 votes - 36.0% A 92 vote difference. 2016 will probably more like that, methinks.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 27, 2016 15:45:30 GMT
Maybe it was just Ashcroft's methodology but wasnt some of the constituency polling at the General wildly inaccurate?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 27, 2016 15:48:50 GMT
Constituency polling is, World over, sh!te.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 27, 2016 16:45:54 GMT
What is the methodology for those constituency figures? Indeed, is there a methodology? Personally I find some of them plausible; some of them wildly implausible. (Though a LD gain in Cardiff would be nice!)
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Apr 27, 2016 17:13:15 GMT
Accurate or not, I know that the Plaid Cymru candidate for Aberconwy has taken those numbers and is running with them. Don't know if he's genuinely swallowed it or is using it as a means of rallying the anti-Tory crowd to his side...
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 27, 2016 18:10:05 GMT
The projections are based on UNS. The website has tended to quote the 2015 GE results for dramatic effect.
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Post by Penddu on Apr 27, 2016 22:36:18 GMT
Accurate or not, I know that the Plaid Cymru candidate for Aberconwy has taken those numbers and is running with them. Don't know if he's genuinely swallowed it or is using it as a means of rallying the anti-Tory crowd to his side... classic LD tactics....only xxx can win here..usually very succesful....dont know if it will work here this time though but every little helps
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Apr 30, 2016 11:37:37 GMT
Labour are using this in Cardiff West, as in "only Labour and Conservative have ever won in Cardiff West" - to try and lessen the threat from Plaid
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 30, 2016 11:41:18 GMT
Well it has the advantage - as you admit - of being historically correct. That isn't always the case with these things
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on Apr 30, 2016 15:40:02 GMT
Well apart from when it was won by Mr Speaker seeking reelection....
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Post by Penddu on May 2, 2016 11:30:50 GMT
Any idea if we are getting any more Welsh Polls before Thursday? There seems to be a big mood swing (i wont call it a surge yet) towards Plaid....and would like to see if this is reflected in polling..
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
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Post by cibwr on May 2, 2016 12:55:49 GMT
I am not aware of any more though I could well be wrong.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 2, 2016 19:26:14 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 2, 2016 19:46:07 GMT
Exit poll but not an exit poll then.
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on May 4, 2016 19:09:29 GMT
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Post by Penddu on May 7, 2016 2:35:08 GMT
Polls turned out to be fairly accurate in the end - at least in terms of overall votes and seat count - but not for specific seats
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on May 7, 2016 12:58:43 GMT
Polls turned out to be fairly accurate in the end - at least in terms of overall votes and seat count - but not for specific seats Llanelli & Cardiff Central were expected to change hands and they didn't, whilst I'm pretty sure Rhondda was expected to remain Labour and yet Plaid Picked it up (tainted incumbent vs. high profile challenger); saying this with hindsight, I'm pretty sure that Labour could have held on had they de-selected Leighton Andrews, but that's just conjecture.
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