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Post by MacShimidh on Jun 30, 2020 17:11:49 GMT
Let's be clear, there will be no IndyRef before 2024. Whatever happens next year in the SP elections, Boris will rule it out, and Sir Keir won't dissent in any meaningful way. Ian Murray, the Labour Shadow Scottish Secretary, is pretty outspoken on the subject. There are numerous reasons why Boris won't agree, chief among them is that it could finish off his premiership. Better to hand the hot potato over to his successor. I think, FWIW, that although Scottish Labour will struggle to make much headway in May next year, partly due to having such a poor leader as Richard Leonard, they could actually do pretty well in 2024 and set the SNP back, as happened in 2017. I do not think there is any inevitable about IndyRef2 never mind actual independence. If Leonard were deposed (or at least sidelined as far as possible), and Jackie Baillie led the campaign with Starmer making regular visits, I think Labour could do better than expected next year. A narrative seems to have taken hold that "Scottish Labour are dead" but it seems very overblown to me - they will have to play their cards very well indeed between now and next May, but I think there's life in the old thing yet.
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Post by afleitch on Jul 5, 2020 9:27:32 GMT
Support for independence stable at 54% in new Panelbase poll.
Scottish Parliament constituency:
SNP 55% (+2) Conservatives 20% (-1) Labour 15% (-1) Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c) Greens 3% (n/c)
Scottish Parliament regional list:
SNP 50% (+2) Conservatives 18% (-1) Labour 15% (-1) Greens 8% (+1) Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,072
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Post by cogload on Jul 5, 2020 10:28:56 GMT
The Conservative and formerly Unionist Party...
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 5, 2020 10:51:15 GMT
The media kowtows to the feted "Nicola", STV facilitates a personality cult perpetrated by children that the DPRK would be embarrassed about, they've corrupted the civil service to be used for political vendettas and to attack their opponents in public, they've used hyper politicised foreign academics to call all Scots who oppose the SNP "anti Scottish" and used the COVID crisis as cover to reintroduce the anti English racism, I suffered from it as a child, which had largely died. Niall Ferguson was bang on when he called Scotland "The Belarus of the West". I'm just shocked it's only at 54%.
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Post by afleitch on Jul 5, 2020 11:32:28 GMT
The media kowtows to the feted "Nicola", STV facilitates a personality cult perpetrated by children that the DPRK would be embarrassed about, they've corrupted the civil service to be used for political vendettas and to attack their opponents in public, they've used hyper politicised foreign academics to call all Scots who oppose the SNP "anti Scottish" and used the COVID crisis as cover to reintroduce the anti English racism, I suffered from it as a child, which had largely died. Niall Ferguson was bang on when he called Scotland "The Belarus of the West". I'm just shocked it's only at 54%. Wee lamb.
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myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,736
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Post by myth11 on Jul 5, 2020 11:45:17 GMT
The Conservative and formerly Unionist Party... Lib dem localism and the need for a seat at the top EU table as Scotland would get more mep,s plus power to veto/opt out due to the in balance towards small countries has not helped.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jul 5, 2020 11:50:25 GMT
Support for independence stable at 54% in new Panelbase poll. Scottish Parliament constituency: SNP 55% (+2) Conservatives 20% (-1) Labour 15% (-1) Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c) Greens 3% (n/c) Scottish Parliament regional list: SNP 50% (+2) Conservatives 18% (-1) Labour 15% (-1) Greens 8% (+1) Liberal Democrats 6% (-2) Labour still PASOKed even while polling near 40% in the UK polls.
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Post by MacShimidh on Jul 5, 2020 12:30:35 GMT
The media kowtows to the feted "Nicola", STV facilitates a personality cult perpetrated by children that the DPRK would be embarrassed about, they've corrupted the civil service to be used for political vendettas and to attack their opponents in public, they've used hyper politicised foreign academics to call all Scots who oppose the SNP "anti Scottish" and used the COVID crisis as cover to reintroduce the anti English racism, I suffered from it as a child, which had largely died. Niall Ferguson was bang on when he called Scotland "The Belarus of the West". I'm just shocked it's only at 54%. I'm sure the efforts of the Conservative Party to repel as many Scottish voters as possible over the last couple of years has nothing to do with it.
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Post by afleitch on Jul 5, 2020 12:30:38 GMT
Support for independence stable at 54% in new Panelbase poll. Scottish Parliament constituency: SNP 55% (+2) Conservatives 20% (-1) Labour 15% (-1) Liberal Democrats 6% (n/c) Greens 3% (n/c) Scottish Parliament regional list: SNP 50% (+2) Conservatives 18% (-1) Labour 15% (-1) Greens 8% (+1) Liberal Democrats 6% (-2) Labour still PASOKed even while polling near 40% in the UK polls. Scotland has a labour party. It's just not Labour.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 5, 2020 13:12:12 GMT
The media kowtows to the feted "Nicola", STV facilitates a personality cult perpetrated by children that the DPRK would be embarrassed about, they've corrupted the civil service to be used for political vendettas and to attack their opponents in public, they've used hyper politicised foreign academics to call all Scots who oppose the SNP "anti Scottish" and used the COVID crisis as cover to reintroduce the anti English racism, I suffered from it as a child, which had largely died. Niall Ferguson was bang on when he called Scotland "The Belarus of the West". I'm just shocked it's only at 54%. I'm sure the efforts of the Conservative Party to repel as many Scottish voters as possible over the last couple of years has nothing to do with it. If I may be frank, my fellow party members and I have put up with a lot of shit to attract voters. We have sat silently as our party has jettisoned personal responsibility, jettisoned fiscal prudence, jettisoned a commitment to the free market and sat and watched as we've turned woke. We even have Jackson publically distancing himself from Boris and the national party down south and adopting policies on immigration directly contrary to London, all in the aid of attracting voters. What more could we Scottish Conservatives have done?
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bore
Labour
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Post by bore on Jul 5, 2020 14:50:36 GMT
I'm sure the efforts of the Conservative Party to repel as many Scottish voters as possible over the last couple of years has nothing to do with it. If I may be frank, my fellow party members and I have put up with a lot of shit to attract voters. We have sat silently as our party has jettisoned personal responsibility, jettisoned fiscal prudence, jettisoned a commitment to the free market and sat and watched as we've turned woke. We even have Jackson publically distancing himself from Boris and the national party down south and adopting policies on immigration directly contrary to London, all in the aid of attracting voters. What more could we Scottish Conservatives have done? Would it not be simpler for the Conservatives to dissolve the Scottish people and elect another?
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,072
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Post by cogload on Jul 5, 2020 15:02:00 GMT
I said after Brexit that the choice would be whether to save the Union. It seems the answer is to see it dissolve.
There will then have to be a post UK break up realignment of any EU deal.
It would be ironic and deeply funny if the fastest way for the ex constituent parts of the UK to reenter the EU would be via a UK dissolution.
It would also see the end of the Conservative Party in it's current form but I am sure we could all live with that.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 5, 2020 15:26:32 GMT
If I may be frank, my fellow party members and I have put up with a lot of shit to attract voters. We have sat silently as our party has jettisoned personal responsibility, jettisoned fiscal prudence, jettisoned a commitment to the free market and sat and watched as we've turned woke. We even have Jackson publically distancing himself from Boris and the national party down south and adopting policies on immigration directly contrary to London, all in the aid of attracting voters. What more could we Scottish Conservatives have done? Would it not be simpler for the Conservatives to dissolve the Scottish people and elect another? No, that's a lefty Labour attitude. If the electorate wants this, that's their decision.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 5, 2020 15:53:26 GMT
It is quite impressive that after over twenty years of more proportional voting, Scotland has had increasingly less choice, distilled into a small selection of completely repellent options.
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jul 5, 2020 16:40:37 GMT
I said after Brexit that the choice would be whether to save the Union. It seems the answer is to see it dissolve. There will then have to be a post UK break up realignment of any EU deal. It would be ironic and deeply funny if the fastest way for the ex constituent parts of the UK to reenter the EU would be via a UK dissolution. It would also see the end of the Conservative Party in it's current form but I am sure we could all live with that. The rise in independence and the SNP and fuck all to do with Brexit and everything to do with the current pandemic and the perception that Nicola has done a "nay bad" job. Whether that's true or not is up for serious debate. I'm sure the Nats on here would agree. If they want to sustain this momentum and level of support they need to have a serious look at there failings in government and address them ASAP.
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Post by MacShimidh on Jul 5, 2020 16:44:57 GMT
I'm sure the efforts of the Conservative Party to repel as many Scottish voters as possible over the last couple of years has nothing to do with it. If I may be frank, my fellow party members and I have put up with a lot of shit to attract voters. We have sat silently as our party has jettisoned personal responsibility, jettisoned fiscal prudence, jettisoned a commitment to the free market and sat and watched as we've turned woke. We even have Jackson publically distancing himself from Boris and the national party down south and adopting policies on immigration directly contrary to London, all in the aid of attracting voters. What more could we Scottish Conservatives have done? Despite the cheekiness of my previous post, I actually have a lot of sympathy for your position at the moment. I would love a centre right party to vote for, I may even vote for the Tories on the regional list next year, but the Scottish party is moribund whilst you have such an absolute chancer as Johnson as UK leader. For the party to elect someone who so clearly couldn't give a damn about the union certainly caused me to re-assess why I voted for them in the previous couple of elections, and even why I voted No in 2014. Clearly Ruth Davidson had a similar sort of "crisis of faith" to me. I think that sort of problem of perception is a far more salient problem for the party than the policy changes you mention. They are significant, but other than the "wokeness" which I suppose started under Davidson, they are all relatively new things which have been accelerated by Johnson and Sunak. Carlaw is untested but may well benefit from low expectations - I highly doubt the SNP will be on 55% in May for various reasons. Distancing himself from the national party seems like a wise move to me at the moment - it would do the party some good to be shown "standing up to Westminster" and even to Johnson specifically.
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Post by MacShimidh on Jul 5, 2020 17:13:35 GMT
It is quite impressive that after over twenty years of more proportional voting, Scotland has had increasingly less choice, distilled into a small selection of completely repellent options. 2003 was the high water mark for choice - who could forget the seismic breakthrough of the Senior Citizens Party? It's just sad how crap Scottish politics is.
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spqr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,775
Member is Online
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Post by spqr on Jul 5, 2020 17:59:05 GMT
I said after Brexit that the choice would be whether to save the Union. It seems the answer is to see it dissolve. There will then have to be a post UK break up realignment of any EU deal. It would be ironic and deeply funny if the fastest way for the ex constituent parts of the UK to reenter the EU would be via a UK dissolution. It would also see the end of the Conservative Party in it's current form but I am sure we could all live with that. Your sense of humour has always been an odd one. You and David Schneider should tour the country and see how well you do. But there's nothing inevitable about independence, even if it suits you to think otherwise. A few polls from Panelbase showing a marginal lead (which I suspect are Coronavirus-related, rather than anything to do with Brexit) doesn't change that.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jul 5, 2020 18:20:50 GMT
If I may be frank, my fellow party members and I have put up with a lot of shit to attract voters. We have sat silently as our party has jettisoned personal responsibility, jettisoned fiscal prudence, jettisoned a commitment to the free market and sat and watched as we've turned woke. We even have Jackson publically distancing himself from Boris and the national party down south and adopting policies on immigration directly contrary to London, all in the aid of attracting voters. What more could we Scottish Conservatives have done? Despite the cheekiness of my previous post, I actually have a lot of sympathy for your position at the moment. I would love a centre right party to vote for, I may even vote for the Tories on the regional list next year, but the Scottish party is moribund whilst you have such an absolute chancer as Johnson as UK leader. For the party to elect someone who so clearly couldn't give a damn about the union certainly caused me to re-assess why I voted for them in the previous couple of elections, and even why I voted No in 2014. Clearly Ruth Davidson had a similar sort of "crisis of faith" to me. I think that sort of problem of perception is a far more salient problem for the party than the policy changes you mention. They are significant, but other than the "wokeness" which I suppose started under Davidson, they are all relatively new things which have been accelerated by Johnson and Sunak. Carlaw is untested but may well benefit from low expectations - I highly doubt the SNP will be on 55% in May for various reasons. Distancing himself from the national party seems like a wise move to me at the moment - it would do the party some good to be shown "standing up to Westminster" and even to Johnson specifically. Do you think the party would benefit from more independence from the UK one or even setting up a new party akin to the CSU/CDU union?
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jul 5, 2020 18:53:53 GMT
Despite the cheekiness of my previous post, I actually have a lot of sympathy for your position at the moment. I would love a centre right party to vote for, I may even vote for the Tories on the regional list next year, but the Scottish party is moribund whilst you have such an absolute chancer as Johnson as UK leader. For the party to elect someone who so clearly couldn't give a damn about the union certainly caused me to re-assess why I voted for them in the previous couple of elections, and even why I voted No in 2014. Clearly Ruth Davidson had a similar sort of "crisis of faith" to me. I think that sort of problem of perception is a far more salient problem for the party than the policy changes you mention. They are significant, but other than the "wokeness" which I suppose started under Davidson, they are all relatively new things which have been accelerated by Johnson and Sunak. Carlaw is untested but may well benefit from low expectations - I highly doubt the SNP will be on 55% in May for various reasons. Distancing himself from the national party seems like a wise move to me at the moment - it would do the party some good to be shown "standing up to Westminster" and even to Johnson specifically. Do you think the party would benefit from more independence from the UK one or even setting up a new party akin to the CSU/CDU union? 100% David, in my view, the Scottish conservatives contest Westminster seats and only Westminster seats, while a new party a sister party if you like contests Scottish and local elections only.
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