|
Post by Andrew_S on Nov 24, 2019 3:04:08 GMT
Changes since the 2017 GE: SNP +3.1% Con -0.6% Lab -7.1% LD +4.2%
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,859
Member is Online
|
Post by jamie on Nov 24, 2019 12:54:39 GMT
The early ramping of a Tory wipeout/SNP surge in Scotland looks to have been a tad presumptuous. Tories back to 2017 election support while the SNP have barely advanced. Hope for Labour that they might win more than 1 Scottish seat?
|
|
|
Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 24, 2019 13:02:25 GMT
The early ramping of a Tory wipeout/SNP surge in Scotland looks to have been a tad presumptuous. Tories back to 2017 election support while the SNP have barely advanced. Hope for Labour that they might win more than 1 Scottish seat? Much of the London-based media still doesn't grasp how much the nationalist/unionist cleavage dominates in Scotland.
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Nov 24, 2019 13:50:08 GMT
It is perhaps worth recalling that the final Panelbase poll carried out in the closing days of the 2017 campaign came up with SNP 41 Con 30 Lab 22. The outcome was SNP 37 Con 28.5 Lab 27.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 24, 2019 14:30:20 GMT
The early ramping of a Tory wipeout/SNP surge in Scotland looks to have been a tad presumptuous. Tories back to 2017 election support while the SNP have barely advanced. Hope for Labour that they might win more than 1 Scottish seat? Much of the London-based media still doesn't grasp how much the nationalist/unionist cleavage dominates in Scotland. A few people on here seem to ignore it as a factor too. fwiw i think the result in Scotland at least, may end up being not too dissimilar to 2017.
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 24, 2019 15:29:44 GMT
Scottish Panelbase Poll for Sunday Times SNP - 40% Con - 28% Lab - 20% LD - 11% BXP - <1% Tories have a decent chance of making gains on these numbers. I'd expect a tactical squeeze on the other unionist parties in Perth, Argyll and Lanark. Their support will probably fall a bit across the central belt. Firstly that is a swing from Tory to SNP since 2017, and secondly in an election dominated by Brexit the tactical squeeze within the unionist vote will be much less than in 2017, since strong Remainers will not vote Tory and strong Leavers will not vote Lab or LD. It will not be the Tory wipeout predicted a few weeks ago on these figures though.
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 24, 2019 15:32:13 GMT
It is perhaps worth recalling that the final Panelbase poll carried out in the closing days of the 2017 campaign came up with SNP 41 Con 30 Lab 22. The outcome was SNP 37 Con 28.5 Lab 27. Yes, there was a late swing to Lab in 2017. It might happen again although I note Leicester have only won the Premier League once
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 24, 2019 15:49:35 GMT
It is perhaps worth recalling that the final Panelbase poll carried out in the closing days of the 2017 campaign came up with SNP 41 Con 30 Lab 22. The outcome was SNP 37 Con 28.5 Lab 27. Yes, there was a late swing to Lab in 2017. It might happen again although I note Leicester have only won the Premier League onceBut are currently second, having won their last five games - the best form of any team in the Premiership and joint best form in the whole top four divisions of the English League (along with Swindon Town).
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Nov 24, 2019 16:01:04 GMT
It is perhaps worth recalling that the final Panelbase poll carried out in the closing days of the 2017 campaign came up with SNP 41 Con 30 Lab 22. The outcome was SNP 37 Con 28.5 Lab 27. Yes, there was a late swing to Lab in 2017. It might happen again although I note Leicester have only won the Premier League once Fieldwork for the final Panelbase poll was completed on 7th June 2017 - ie the eve of poll - which should have captured any late swing.
|
|
|
Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 24, 2019 16:05:59 GMT
Yes, there was a late swing to Lab in 2017. It might happen again although I note Leicester have only won the Premier League once Fieldwork for the final Panelbase poll was completed on 7th June 2017 - ie the eve of poll - which should have captured any late swing. It might have been the opposite of a late swing - postal votes already cast.
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Nov 24, 2019 16:09:00 GMT
Fieldwork for the final Panelbase poll was completed on 7th June 2017 - ie the eve of poll - which should have captured any late swing. It might have been the opposite of a late swing - postal votes already cast. But earlier polls in 2017 had Labour below 20%.
|
|
|
Post by lancastrian on Nov 24, 2019 19:35:18 GMT
It is perhaps worth recalling that the final Panelbase poll carried out in the closing days of the 2017 campaign came up with SNP 41 Con 30 Lab 22. The outcome was SNP 37 Con 28.5 Lab 27. So basically this poll shows no change from 2017, just everyone very slightly down.
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Nov 24, 2019 19:44:22 GMT
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 24, 2019 21:13:37 GMT
Yes, there was a late swing to Lab in 2017. It might happen again although I note Leicester have only won the Premier League onceBut are currently second, having won their last five games - the best form of any team in the Premiership and joint best form in the whole top four divisions of the English League (along with Swindon Town). Are you saying second would be a good result for the Labour Party?
|
|
|
Post by andrew111 on Nov 24, 2019 21:14:33 GMT
It is perhaps worth recalling that the final Panelbase poll carried out in the closing days of the 2017 campaign came up with SNP 41 Con 30 Lab 22. The outcome was SNP 37 Con 28.5 Lab 27. So basically this poll shows no change from 2017, just everyone very slightly down. Everyone except the Lib Dems, you mean
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Nov 24, 2019 21:25:00 GMT
But are currently second, having won their last five games - the best form of any team in the Premiership and joint best form in the whole top four divisions of the English League (along with Swindon Town). Are you saying second would be a good result for the Labour Party? it could be. If we only finished one seat behind the Tories, for instance.
|
|
|
Post by robbienicoll on Nov 28, 2019 12:11:17 GMT
|
|
jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,859
Member is Online
|
Post by jamie on Nov 28, 2019 12:41:31 GMT
FWIW Ipsos have generally been a bit better for the Tories/worse for Labour at the national level. Very good poll for the SNP.
|
|
Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
|
Post by Tom on Nov 28, 2019 12:51:35 GMT
Will probs end up with egg on my face but that poll is bollocks.
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,192
|
Post by cogload on Nov 28, 2019 12:52:07 GMT
50/50 split on independence.
|
|