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Post by afleitch on Nov 28, 2019 12:53:38 GMT
I'll take that. Will need to dive into the crosstabs though.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 1, 2019 19:39:21 GMT
Panelbase. Indy - 51% No - 49% Yes. Constituency. SNP 43 (+1), Conservative 26 (+5), Labour 17 (-2), Lib Dem 9 (-1), Brexit Party 3 (-1) and Green 2 (-1). Regional List. SNP 39 (+1), Conservative 25 (+4), Labour 17 (-1), Lib Dem 9 (-2), Green 6 (N/C) and Brexit Party 3 (-1). John Curtice says this at an election would result in; SNP 60 (-4), Greens 4 (-2), Conservative 35 (+4), Labour 21 (-3), Lib Dem 9 (+4). Therefore the pro Indy forces lose their majority. www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indyref2-blow-as-snp-and-greens-poll-short-lnxd9mv80
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2019 11:46:24 GMT
Panelbase. Indy - 51% No - 49% Yes. Constituency. SNP 43 (+1), Conservative 26 (+5), Labour 17 (-2), Lib Dem 9 (-1), Brexit Party 3 (-1) and Green 2 (-1). Regional List. SNP 39 (+1), Conservative 25 (+4), Labour 17 (-1), Lib Dem 9 (-2), Green 6 (N/C) and Brexit Party 3 (-1). John Curtice says this at an election would result in; SNP 60 (-4), Greens 4 (-2), Conservative 35 (+4), Labour 21 (-3), Lib Dem 9 (+4). Therefore the pro Indy forces lose their majority. www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indyref2-blow-as-snp-and-greens-poll-short-lnxd9mv80That’ll do nicely. I hate those damn Scottish Greens.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2019 11:48:58 GMT
Both the Tory and Labour changes look counter-intuitive given the trend in GB-wide polls, but Scotland makes little sense to outsiders these days
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 2, 2019 12:40:55 GMT
Con Lab Lib coalition. Like the end of Weimar.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2019 12:55:21 GMT
The figures are from Panelbase poll 2 weeks ago not last week for anyone who was unsure like I was
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2019 13:04:44 GMT
Con Lab Lib coalition. Like the end of Weimar. Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me. I would not support a coalition with Labour under any circumstances. Better to allow a lame duck SNP government which can be tripped up at every opportunity.
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Dec 2, 2019 13:15:56 GMT
Con Lab Lib coalition. Like the end of Weimar. Sounds like a recipe for disaster to me. I would not support a coalition with Labour under any circumstances. Better to allow a lame duck SNP government which can be tripped up at every opportunity. Plenty of Labour supporters would feel the same way about working with the Conservatives, I'm one of them.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 2, 2019 14:21:06 GMT
Amen to that, and the lessons of 2014 won't be forgotten by us in a hurry.
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Eastwood
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Post by Eastwood on Dec 2, 2019 14:36:51 GMT
Any kind of polling with the Greens in the 5-8% range is inherently unstable once put into a seat predictor.
They go from 2 seats on 5% 4 seats on 6%, 6 seats on 7% 9 seats on 8%. Conservatives and Labour make strong gains from Green as soon as they dip down below that 6.6% level they got on the regional list in 2016.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Dec 2, 2019 15:10:05 GMT
Not a chance in hell that Labour would support a Conservative government at Holyrood. Very little the other way round either.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 2, 2019 15:35:20 GMT
Not a chance in hell that Labour would support a Conservative government at Holyrood. Very little the other way round either. Not this Labour Party. The more moderate one we probably would've if it meant no Indy ref.
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Dec 2, 2019 17:00:30 GMT
Not a chance in hell that Labour would support a Conservative government at Holyrood. Very little the other way round either. Not this Labour Party. The more moderate one we probably would've if it meant no Indy ref. Wouldn't happen in that instance either, see 2014 for more details.
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Post by curiousliberal on Dec 2, 2019 17:04:00 GMT
The most plausible path to the factions working together is the dissolution of the factions, presumably after a crushing defeat like a Yes vote - i.e. SLAB and SCON cease to exist, merging into a unionist party.
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pl
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Post by pl on Dec 2, 2019 17:11:23 GMT
The most plausible path to the factions working together is the dissolution of the factions, presumably after a crushing defeat like a Yes vote - i.e. SLAB and SCON cease to exist, merging into a unionist party. Judging by the experience in Southern Ireland, Unionism will be dead (barring any twitching) by the next election. The SNP morphs into turns into some sort of FF/FG party with no ideology at all, while the Conservative and Labour try and re-assert a left-right axis to politics.
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Post by curiousliberal on Dec 2, 2019 17:17:01 GMT
The most plausible path to the factions working together is the dissolution of the factions, presumably after a crushing defeat like a Yes vote - i.e. SLAB and SCON cease to exist, merging into a unionist party. Judging by the experience in Southern Ireland, Unionism will be dead (barring any twitching) by the next election. The SNP morphs into turns into some sort of FF/FG party with no ideology at all, while the Conservative and Labour try and re-assert a left-right axis to politics. A Yes vote wouldn't immediately be followed by independence. I'd expect a merger to happen, if at all, in the interim period.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 2, 2019 17:30:38 GMT
Not this Labour Party. The more moderate one we probably would've if it meant no Indy ref. Wouldn't happen in that instance either, see 2014 for more details. I meant us. We probably would've voted for SLAB's budget. I don't see how, or why, Labour could've/would've prevented that.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Dec 2, 2019 18:03:56 GMT
The most likely outcome of that distribution of seats is a minority SNP administration getting support on an issue by issue basis from the other parties, but no indyref2.
However, we're the wrong side of some fairly major events for these figures to have any real meaning at this stage.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 3, 2019 0:25:47 GMT
Not a chance in hell that Labour would support a Conservative government at Holyrood. Very little the other way round either. While I am totally opposed to any deal with Labour, I am not necessarily opposed to working with the SNP. While Sturgeon’s Buckfast Belt SNP obviously peddles the “Evil Torieeeeez” line relentlessly, an arrangement with a more centrist Salmond SNP would not be totally out of the question as far as I’m concerned.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 3, 2019 0:38:34 GMT
The Nats have tacitly dealt with the Tories before, of course.
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