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Post by curiousliberal on Dec 2, 2019 0:18:44 GMT
I'm glad they don't appear to be herding re: the LDs.
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Post by curiousliberal on Dec 2, 2019 0:34:03 GMT
CON: 42.5% (-1.9% from where they were at this point in the last cycle, averaging the latest 10 polls released with sampling dates up to the 12th day before polls open) LAB: 33% (-2.3%) LD: 13% (+5.1%) BxP: 3.5% (-0.9% from where UKIP were) Grn (n.b. replaced a couple of 2017 polls where they weren't listed separately): 2.9% (+0.9%)
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Post by justin124 on Dec 2, 2019 1:12:22 GMT
Unlike other pollsters Survation gives us UK - rather than GB - data. Thus, on a GB basis we are really looking at Con 43% Lab 34%
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Post by curiousliberal on Dec 2, 2019 1:32:59 GMT
Unlike other pollsters Survation gives us UK - rather than GB - data. Thus, on a GB basis we are really looking at Con 43% Lab 34% Marginally less (probably not measurably so, tbh) for the Conservatives considering the NI Conservatives presumably have their score aggregated into the UK Party's figure. The rolling average above should remain correct as there was also a Survation poll of this variety in the 2017 lot up until this point, IIRC.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Survation
Dec 8, 2019 23:41:36 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Dec 8, 2019 23:41:36 GMT
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,326
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Survation
Dec 8, 2019 23:55:26 GMT
via mobile
Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 8, 2019 23:55:26 GMT
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Dec 9, 2019 0:03:07 GMT
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 9, 2019 0:03:47 GMT
You nearly gave me a fucking heart attack @priceofdawn
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 9, 2019 0:11:05 GMT
Survation say this is their final poll for GMB - any ideas if they're doing another for someone else or is this it?
Speaking of final polls, who do we expect to see this week - the usual weekly pattern suggests ICM, Kantar, YouGov and ComRes, but presumably there will be more.
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 9, 2019 0:24:32 GMT
I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but at the end of these Survation polls for GMB they've been asking best PM for Piers Morgan v Susanna Reid.
This week it's Piers 37 (+1) Susanna 42 (+4)
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Post by BossMan on Dec 9, 2019 0:47:29 GMT
Survation say this is their final poll for GMB - any ideas if they're doing another for someone else or is this it? Speaking of final polls, who do we expect to see this week - the usual weekly pattern suggests ICM, Kantar, YouGov and ComRes, but presumably there will be more. I imagine Survation will publish one more poll on Wednesday, as well as all (or most) of the members of the BPC.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,167
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Post by Jack on Dec 9, 2019 0:51:52 GMT
I don't know if anyone else has noticed, but at the end of these Survation polls for GMB they've been asking best PM for Piers Morgan v Susanna Reid. This week it's Piers 37 (+1) Susanna 42 (+4) Well, that's useful.
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Post by casualobserver on Dec 9, 2019 1:26:56 GMT
It’s only one poll. But it’s going in the right direction and we’ve just got three days to go.
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Post by Andrew_S on Dec 9, 2019 4:18:22 GMT
Survation say this is their final poll for GMB - any ideas if they're doing another for someone else or is this it? Speaking of final polls, who do we expect to see this week - the usual weekly pattern suggests ICM, Kantar, YouGov and ComRes, but presumably there will be more.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 9, 2019 10:25:16 GMT
I think they suspect themselves its not quite right.
For me the real tell isn't the much commented on London subsample (though that is surely way out, and the Scottish figures are pretty odd too) but that it has the Tories on 50% with male voters. Is that credible?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,371
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 9, 2019 13:42:52 GMT
I think they suspect themselves its not quite right. For me the real tell isn't the much commented on London subsample (though that is surely way out, and the Scottish figures are pretty odd too) but that it has the Tories on 50% with male voters. Is that credible? You can over-analyse these things, of course, but it does seem from their language (in the Tweet and also in the little summary piece they wrote) that they aren't particularly happy with the sample. It can happen - actually it is statistically guaranteed that it will happen from time to time.
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 11, 2019 22:50:02 GMT
A note on Survation's final, as yet unpublished, poll. The sample size is apparently around 2500, including 1000 Scottish voters who also form the sample for a poll of Scotland being released separately.
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Post by BossMan on Dec 11, 2019 23:16:48 GMT
Survation's twitter feed says their result will be known by midnight. Their fieldwork wasn't completed until 10 o'clock.
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Survation
Dec 11, 2019 23:23:51 GMT
via mobile
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 11, 2019 23:23:51 GMT
A note on Survation's final, as yet unpublished, poll. The sample size is apparently around 2500, including 1000 Scottish voters who also form the sample for a poll of Scotland being released separately. What a bizarre sample.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,326
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Post by CatholicLeft on Dec 11, 2019 23:59:39 GMT
This would be awful for the Lib Dems and, I reckon, too high for the Tories.
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