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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 18, 2019 12:26:46 GMT
Shock as polarisation works in favour of the largest groups as opposed to the loudest groups.
I didn't expect #revoke would backfire quite this quickly, but it was always going to be a poor political calculus in the long run. We should have just fought on a wholly liberal platform. I don't suppose it would have stemmed all of the flow, but we might have kept some liberal Leavers/mild Remainers instead of swapping them for a thumbs-up from people who vote almost entirely on the basis of Brexit polarisation (and who, as a result, might end up voting for Labour anyway).
Edit: I should caveat all this by adding that my calculus could be wrong (in the short term, I hope it is) and that this is a temporary switch which reverts to the mean in the next few weeks. That should not be ruled out given the twists and turns of a GE campaign which occasionally don't seem entirely attached to supposedly important political events that occur within it. I reckoned at the start of the campaign period that if we wound up on 14% of the vote, we'd have done well (and have gained 20-30 seats), and I stand by that assessment.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 18, 2019 12:28:33 GMT
This is where Swinson spending all her time since becoming leader attacking Labour/Corbyn, and giving the Tories/Johnson a virtual free ride, has got you. Its not too late, just, to change tack. If we attach ourselves to Corbyn Which is something that nobody is suggesting. Just a bit of balance. One reason why the Tories have improved in recent polls is "remainers" going back to them from the LibDems, its not just the Brexit Party pseudo-pact. An indication in itself that your strategy thus far has failed.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Survation
Nov 18, 2019 13:06:30 GMT
via mobile
Post by Vibe on Nov 18, 2019 13:06:30 GMT
This is where Swinson spending all her time since becoming leader attacking Labour/Corbyn, and giving the Tories/Johnson a virtual free ride, has got you. Its not too late, just, to change tack. She could just be the wrong leader and not liked by the public in her recent media appearances. Personally I think tactical voting has a lot to do with it.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 18, 2019 13:08:38 GMT
This is where Swinson spending all her time since becoming leader attacking Labour/Corbyn, and giving the Tories/Johnson a virtual free ride, has got you. Its not too late, just, to change tack. She could just be the wrong leader and not liked by the public in her recent media appearances. Personally I think tactical voting has a lot to do with it. "But....b-but.....sHe'S gOiNg To Be PrImE mInIsTeR"!!!!??!!!!! !!!!111!!!!!
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Post by pepperminttea on Nov 18, 2019 13:10:52 GMT
This is where Swinson spending all her time since becoming leader attacking Labour/Corbyn, and giving the Tories/Johnson a virtual free ride, has got you. Its not too late, just, to change tack. If we attach ourselves to Corbyn, we will absolutely screw ourselves in the LD/Con seats, which are most of our targets. Corbyn is the problem. While he is leader, the number of people who will vote to stop him becoming PM is just too high and the relationship between our two parties makes absolutely zero difference whatsoever to that fact. This, I think, hits the nail on the head. Tory Remain voters absolutely despise Corbyn and for the majority of them stopping him becoming PM trumps anything they may think about Brexit (Labour Remainers are significantly more animated by Brexit than their Tory counterparts, see article linked below). In my home constituency of Hitchin and Harpenden (over 60% Remain) for example there are a lot of voters like this and thus this is a seat the Lib Dems could potentially win if the stars aligned. However the 'Red Scare' factor is pushing wavering Con-LD voters towards the Tories. This could obviously change if Johnson and co. make blunder after blunder (possible) or if Labour collapses to the extent that they are no longer deemed a threat (unlikely). Also the elephant in the room is what exactly the Lib Dems would do in the event of a hung parliament, will they for example vote down any Labour Queen's Speech that would see Corbyn as PM even at the potential sacrifice of a second referendum which is what most Tory Remainers will want them to do? If Labour had a more palatable leader this wouldn't be an issue as most Tory Remainers would reluctantly tolerate a minority Labour government for a year to facilitate another Referendum. Though for them Corbyn is beyond the pale, and therein lies the Lib Dem's dilemma. Interestingly (and perhaps unsurprisingly) as per this Guardian article Tory Remain voters are the most economically right wing in the entire country ( www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/15/tory-remainers-labour-leavers-election-voters-lib-dems ). So unless the Lib Dems are planning on moving in a very 'Orange Booker' direction post the election (i.e.by electing Sam Gyimah leader) these voters *may* be a challenge for them to hold on to, dependent of course on whether the Tories moderate on the culture war stuff or go full-throttle Bill Cash.
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Post by justin124 on Nov 18, 2019 13:12:18 GMT
It is already becoming apparent that the LDs made the wrong call by agreeing to give Johnson his pre-Christmas election. Far better to have allowed the paralysis and chaos to have continued into the New Year and forced an election to be held in late February. Yet another example of acting as the Tories' Little Helpers coming back to bite them!
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Survation
Nov 18, 2019 13:19:10 GMT
via mobile
Post by Merseymike on Nov 18, 2019 13:19:10 GMT
If we attach ourselves to Corbyn, we will absolutely screw ourselves in the LD/Con seats, which are most of our targets. Corbyn is the problem. While he is leader, the number of people who will vote to stop him becoming PM is just too high and the relationship between our two parties makes absolutely zero difference whatsoever to that fact. This, I think, hits the nail on the head. Tory Remain voters absolutely despise Corbyn and for the majority of them stopping him becoming PM trumps anything they may think about Brexit (Labour Remainers are significantly more animated by Brexit than their Tory counterparts, see article linked below). In my home constituency of Hitchin and Harpenden (over 60% Remain) for example there are a lot of voters like this and thus this is a seat the Lib Dems could potentially win if the stars aligned. However the 'Red Scare' factor is pushing wavering Con-LD voters towards the Tories. This could obviously change if Johnson and co. make blunder after blunder (possible) or if Labour collapses to the extent that they are no longer deemed a threat (unlikely). Also the elephant in the room is what exactly the Lib Dems would do in the event of a hung parliament, will they for example vote down any Labour Queen's Speech that would see Corbyn as PM even at the potential sacrifice of a second referendum which is what most Tory Remainers will want them to do? If Labour had a more palatable leader this wouldn't be an issue as most Tory Remainers would reluctantly tolerate a minority Labour government for a year to facilitate another Referendum. Though for them Corbyn is beyond the pale, and therein lies the Lib Dem's dilemma. Interestingly (and perhaps unsurprisingly) as per this Guardian article Tory Remain voters are the most economically right wing in the entire country ( www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/nov/15/tory-remainers-labour-leavers-election-voters-lib-dems ). So unless the Lib Dems are planning on moving in a very 'Orange Booker' direction post the election (i.e.by electing Sam Gyimah leader) these voters *may* be a challenge for them to hold on to, dependent of course on whether the Tories moderate on the culture war stuff or go full-throttle Bill Cash. This is a reasonable point. Tory Remainers are free market globalisers- and so not the sort of people Labour could consider compromise with unless we wanted another Not Labour government like 1997.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,458
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Post by mboy on Nov 18, 2019 13:24:03 GMT
It is already becoming apparent that the LDs made the wrong call by agreeing to give Johnson his pre-Christmas election. Far better to have allowed the paralysis and chaos to have continued into the New Year and forced an election to be held in late February. Yet another example of acting as the Tories' Little Helpers coming back to bite them! The Labour party voted for the election in far greater numbers than Lib Dems, you muppet.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 18, 2019 13:25:27 GMT
LibDems and SNP deciding to back a December GE (for their own self-interested reasons) forced Labour's hand there.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on Nov 18, 2019 13:30:40 GMT
LibDems and SNP deciding to back a December GE (for their own self-interested reasons) forced Labour's hand there. Lol. Corbyn has been chuntering on about being ready for an election for 18mths.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,458
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Post by mboy on Nov 18, 2019 13:45:43 GMT
LibDems and SNP deciding to back a December GE (for their own self-interested reasons) forced Labour's hand there. LOL, Corbyn literally saying "We can have an election as soon as No Deal is ruled out" and then Boris accepting that No Deal was legally ruled out had nothing to do with it then?
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Post by tonygreaves on Nov 18, 2019 13:52:48 GMT
Johnson is now saying he does not rule out a No Deal of course. The LD MPs certainly made a wrong call in pressing for a 9th December GE and then being unable to stop one on the 12th. It's called digging a hole and falling into it. Meanwhile the Labour/Corbyn con-trick on Brexit rides again. Perhaps.
But the real problem now is that the LD national campaign is so feeble. Blame the party managers and advisers for that.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 18, 2019 13:55:02 GMT
LibDems and SNP deciding to back a December GE (for their own self-interested reasons) forced Labour's hand there. LOL, Corbyn literally saying "We can have an election as soon as No Deal is ruled out" and then Boris accepting that No Deal was legally ruled out had nothing to do with it then? It's not legally ruled out. Could easily still happen
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Post by justin124 on Nov 18, 2019 13:59:24 GMT
LibDems and SNP deciding to back a December GE (for their own self-interested reasons) forced Labour's hand there. LOL, Corbyn literally saying "We can have an election as soon as No Deal is ruled out" and then Boris accepting that No Deal was legally ruled out had nothing to do with it then? Labour was no longer in a position to block an election once it became clear that the Tories were likely to be backed by the LDs and SNP. An election was clearly on the way anyway over a period of months - but late February/early March would have suited Labour and the LDs much better.The shine and novelty would have come off Johnson by that time. Instead the LDs naively assumed that voters shared their Brexit obsession with Remainers flocking en masse to their banner. It hasn't happened - and it won't.
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Post by justin124 on Nov 18, 2019 14:04:30 GMT
ITV has just said it will pull tomorrow's Debate if it loses the Court case.
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Post by finsobruce on Nov 18, 2019 14:15:56 GMT
ITV has just said it will pull tomorrow's Debate if it loses the Court case. Oh dear.
How sad.
Never Mind.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,166
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Post by Jack on Nov 24, 2019 16:05:43 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 27, 2019 14:30:29 GMT
Survation have published more regional figures for the Daily Mail (sample dates 21-22 Nov), albeit some with poor (in NE's case, terrible) sample sizes. Here they are:
NW England (n=681) LAB 39% (-14 from GE, +9 from YouGov regionals) CON 38% (+0.7 from GE, +4 from YouGov regionals) LD 11% (+5.6 from GE, -6 from YouGov regionals) BxP 8% (+6.1 from GE, -6 from YouGov regionals) GRN 3% (+1.9 from GE, -2 from YouGov regionals) OTH 1% (+0.7 from GE, +1 from YouGov regionals)
West Midlands (n=507) CON 41% (-8.1 from GE, -2 from YouGov regionals) LAB 34% (-8.6 from GE, +11 from YouGov regionals) LD 15% (+10.6 from GE, +1 from YouGov regionals) BxP 5% (+3.2 from GE, -7 from YouGov regionals) GRN 4% (+2.4 from GE, -3 from YouGov regionals) OTH 2% (+1.5 from GE, 1 from YouGov regionals)
East Midlands (n=464) CON 49% (-1.8 from GE, +4 from YouGov regionals) LAB 31% (-9.5 from GE, +9 from YouGov regionals) LD 13% (+8.7 from GE, -2 from YouGov regionals) BxP 3% (+9.6 from GE, -9 from YouGov regionals) GRN 3% (+1.5 from GE, -3 from YouGov regionals) OTH 1% (+0.4 from GE, n/c from YouGov regionals)
Yorkshire (n=434) LAB 39% (-10.1 from GE, +10 from YouGov regionals) CON 38% (-2.6 from GE, +4 from YouGov regionals) LD 13% (+8 from GE, -3 from YouGov regionals) BxP 7% (+4.4 from GE, -7 from YouGov regionals) GRN 3% (+1.7 from GE, -4 from YouGov regionals) OTH 1% (-0.4 from GE, n/c from YouGov regionals)
NE England (n=248) LAB 42% (-13.6 from GE, +10 from YouGov regionals) CON 30% (-4.5 from GE, +4 from YouGov regionals) BxP 13% (+9.1 from GE, -6 from YouGov regionals) LD 11% (+6.4 from GE, -4 from YouGov regionals) GRN 4% (+2.7 from GE, -3 from YouGov regionals)
Edit: I've added % changes comparing these results to the earlier YouGov regional figures and the 2017 GE result.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2019 0:04:29 GMT
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Post by lancastrian on Dec 2, 2019 0:15:11 GMT
Joint lowest Lib Dem share so far (Deltapoll randomly had then at 11% two weeks ago)
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