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Post by Arthur Figgis on Jun 28, 2019 16:40:57 GMT
Jeremy Corbyn satisfaction: 17% Satisfied 75% Unsatisfied Bloody Blairite electorate! Zionist electorate.
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Post by greenchristian on Jun 28, 2019 18:58:11 GMT
Apparently Ipsos Mori still do not prompt for the Brexit Party. That may be significant. That YouGov comparison from the other week showed that the Brexit Party benefit disproportionately from prompting. And there were issues with them polling too high compared to their vote in the Euros, so it's plausible that not prompting for them improves accuracy.
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0oh
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Post by 0oh on Jun 29, 2019 2:09:58 GMT
Apparently Ipsos Mori still do not prompt for the Brexit Party. That may be significant. No. They prompt C/L/LD/BXT/G/NAT. No such luck if you are a TIGger, UKIP, SSP or OMRLP.
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johng
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Post by johng on Jul 6, 2019 18:13:13 GMT
A Scottish friend of mine tells me that a leaked internal Tory party poll by IPSOS-Mori is showing 57% for Indy.
It's always been a case of when, not if. In the right circumstances, I could see a second successful referendum in the next few years. In the main, the Conservative party is not really a Unionist party. They would also benefit electorally from a split in the union.
A united Ireland is also probable rather than possible this century.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 6, 2019 19:23:34 GMT
A Scottish friend of mine tells me that a leaked internal Tory party poll by IPSOS-Mori is showing 57% for Indy. If your friend is going to make up figures then he should at least make up realistically optimistic figures rather than outright bollocks.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 6, 2019 20:19:35 GMT
The above figures comes from the poll itself which has not been made public. There is of course one way to check and that it to contact Ipsos-Mori and ask them if they are willing to publicise the details. But it does sound credible. No it doesn’t. Panelbase, who tend to produce somewhat better polls for independence, had No ahead of Yes by 2% a couple of weeks. I struggle to se anything but the most massive of outliers possibly showing Yes ahead by at least 14% (and that’s assuming no undecideds).
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2019 9:54:41 GMT
Its possible it is some sort of "hypothetical" question we are talking about here, especially with one of these fabled "private" polls?
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 18, 2019 8:11:11 GMT
I was polled on the doorstep by this company yesterday evening.
I said I would vote Labour
Along with answering some daft social attitudes questions about how hostile I was to veganism
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 18, 2019 8:20:03 GMT
I was polled on the doorstep by this company yesterday evening. I said I would vote Labour Along with answering some daft social attitudes questions about how hostile I was to veganism "I'm not going to be bloody kebabed by you".
A man ahead of his time.
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Post by polaris on Jul 18, 2019 10:16:16 GMT
I was polled on the doorstep by this company yesterday evening. I said I would vote Labour Along with answering some daft social attitudes questions about how hostile I was to veganism I must admit, I didn't realise that any companies still did face-to-face polling.
I thought it was all done by phone or online.
I've been polled twice by ICM over the phone.
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 18, 2019 12:38:33 GMT
I think companies are mixing and matching methods a lot more, as using one form of contact was given as one of the reasons why they were producing inaccurate polls.
Ipsos-MORI certainly do face to face polling though I've never been asked about voting intention on one of their past visits
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 1, 2019 11:53:13 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2019 12:08:45 GMT
This is more in line with other pollsters than YouGov.
Average polling for YouGov has Labour on about 20% and Tories about 28%. Average polling with other pollsters has Labour on about 25% and Conservative on 30%. Clearly not prompting Brexit is rightly or wrongly continuing to squash its ratings with Ipsos and perhaps giving Tories a larger share than others.
Lots of churn in this poll. Lib Dems down by 2? Greens down by 2. Brexit down by 3. Labour unchanged and Tories up by 8. Can't image Lib Dems and Greens are voting for Boris though Greens did pick up a few leavers surprisingly in May and June. Probably Lib Dems and Greens to Labour while Labour going to Tories
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 1, 2019 12:15:32 GMT
I should have been more explicit. I think it is closer to YouGov in having a 10 point lead for the Conservatives. ComRes, Opinium and Delta had a 2 - 5 point lead. Less strong - it also has the lowest Labour percentage 24% - agreed not near YG 20% but less than the 25-28% in the others.
I'd be surprised if the Brexit Party percentage was this low in reality.
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London Lad
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Post by London Lad on Aug 1, 2019 12:52:16 GMT
I'd be surprised if the Brexit Party percentage was this low in reality. I'm not - I know several Brexit Party supporters who have returned to the Tories to give Boris the benefit of the doubt. Of course the ball is now in Boris's court and he has to deliver.
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 1, 2019 12:54:18 GMT
Apparent churn has been a feature of Mori polls for a long time. I would not pay much attention to it.
However I note that they were pretty accurate in the Euro Election apart from having BXP 5% too high. perhaps we need to push them down a bit more while upping Lab, LD and Green to compensate?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 1, 2019 20:19:17 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Aug 1, 2019 20:44:58 GMT
Shouldn’t over read that because either the 31% or the 15% is/ was clearly wrong
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 1, 2019 20:51:31 GMT
Shouldn’t over read that because either the 31% or the 15% is/ was clearly wrong Or both could be wrong ...
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Aug 1, 2019 23:54:03 GMT
Shouldn’t over read that because either the 31% or the 15% is/ was clearly wrong Or both could be wrong ... Neither are they intended to be "right " The low BP doesn't surprise me, because at this stage what incentive is there to vote BP, especially as it is likely a wasted vote. Longer term(in politics terms) the BP could be anywhere.
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