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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 16:41:39 GMT
A Lib Dem activist in my area posted today: "My son who is a journalist reckons there's a whole bunch of weird middle-aged men who basically sit and fill in the YouGov polling forms to boost what was UKIP and is now the BP. So he thinks they won’t do as well as the polling suggests. Fingers crossed". An amusing thought, but I'm not sure that I believe it, much though I'd love to. this is a common theory and one that was floated in the GE too. Perfectly possible
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on May 23, 2019 17:21:40 GMT
Mori and YouGov have LD ahead of Lab BMG and Opinium and NCP have Lab ahead by 1, 2 and 3 points respectively Kantar, PanelBase, Survation and Opinium have large Labour leads Kantar, PanelBase, Survation and Opinium are older polls on a trend of LD increasing and Lab decreasing Mori, YouGov and BMG are the latest polls and follow the trend. Whether you prefer one house bias or another shouldn't influence your objectivity. The trend is that LD and BXP are on the up, Con and Lab are going down. Looking at the graph, you might wonder what would have happened if the election was delayed a few days. OTOH, it makes a change for the LDs not to peak a week before polling day. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_KingdomWhich I think was what our Noble Lord was saying a day or two back. Personally, still don't believe it. But I'm always the pessimist. Well the trend that Tony was referring to was of course completely correct. Unfortunately some on this site can't see the trends for the numbers... Incidentally, this isn't exactly a condition refined to this site, plenty of self confessed data geeks in all parties get completely obsessed by data and forget that humans are actually involved. 🙂
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Post by Zardoz on May 23, 2019 20:42:55 GMT
A Lib Dem activist in my area posted today: "My son who is a journalist reckons there's a whole bunch of weird middle-aged men who basically sit and fill in the YouGov polling forms to boost what was UKIP and is now the BP. So he thinks they won’t do as well as the polling suggests. Fingers crossed". An amusing thought, but I'm not sure that I believe it, much though I'd love to. Well, I'm a weird middle-aged man, but I always tick 'Lib Dem' when asked by YouGov!
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 23, 2019 22:00:23 GMT
A Lib Dem activist in my area posted today: "My son who is a journalist reckons there's a whole bunch of weird middle-aged men who basically sit and fill in the YouGov polling forms to boost what was UKIP and is now the BP. So he thinks they won’t do as well as the polling suggests. Fingers crossed". An amusing thought, but I'm not sure that I believe it, much though I'd love to. Well, I'm a weird middle-aged man, but I always tick 'Lib Dem' when asked by YouGov! Ditto.
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Post by carolus on Jun 27, 2019 10:55:45 GMT
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 27, 2019 11:08:57 GMT
Still very early days but perhaps a bit of a trend to us in the post May climate is appearing with a desired consequential decline in the BP vote. Once we get Johnson in place I think our ratings will improve and perhaps the dislike of him will also improve the Labour numbers? The 'big one' will be an actual Brexit where our numbers will really take off. What a waste it has been under May. What a total waste.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 27, 2019 11:18:20 GMT
Still very early days but perhaps a bit of a trend to us in the post May climate is appearing with a desired consequential decline in the BP vote. Once we get Johnson in place I think our ratings will improve and perhaps the dislike of him will also improve the Labour numbers? The 'big one' will be an actual Brexit where our numbers will really take off. What a waste it has been under May. What a total waste. The gains and losses don't seem to make much sense with 8 plays 8 and half of those posted as BP losses? So where to? Surely not to LDs who are the only main line Remainer party? These are either quite wrong or masking amazing levels of inter-party churn (eg. 4 to Con and 3 away from Conservative)?
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jun 27, 2019 11:36:30 GMT
Still very early days but perhaps a bit of a trend to us in the post May climate is appearing with a desired consequential decline in the BP vote. Once we get Johnson in place I think our ratings will improve and perhaps the dislike of him will also improve the Labour numbers? The 'big one' will be an actual Brexit where our numbers will really take off. What a waste it has been under May. What a total waste. The gains and losses don't seem to make much sense with 8 plays 8 and half of those posted as BP losses? So where to? Surely not to LDs who are the only main line Remainer party? These are either quite wrong or masking amazing levels of inter-party churn (eg. 4 to Con and 3 away from Conservative)? I suspect some of the bigger swings we are seeing are due to corrections and that here the previous LD figure was too low at just 15% when other polls put us on a point to two either side of 20% But I don't think the inter-party churn needed to produce the figs is improbable either. May goes and the front-runner to replace her stresses need to get out without further delay. Result: 4 point swing from BxP to Tory but also 3 point swing from Remainer-y Tories to LD. Meanwhile Labour havers, leading to 3 point loss to LDs from Remainer-y Lab voters. I wouldn't be shocked by either of those trends.
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Post by carolus on Jun 27, 2019 11:40:23 GMT
Still very early days but perhaps a bit of a trend to us in the post May climate is appearing with a desired consequential decline in the BP vote. Once we get Johnson in place I think our ratings will improve and perhaps the dislike of him will also improve the Labour numbers? The 'big one' will be an actual Brexit where our numbers will really take off. What a waste it has been under May. What a total waste. The gains and losses don't seem to make much sense with 8 plays 8 and half of those posted as BP losses? So where to? Surely not to LDs who are the only main line Remainer party? These are either quite wrong or masking amazing levels of inter-party churn (eg. 4 to Con and 3 away from Conservative)? I think that's the most plausible solution - that Cons are regaining some of the BXP voters, but in appealing to those voters are losing voters to the Lib Dems, either directly through swinging to a harder Brexit, or due to the prospect of a Johnson Leadership. I seem to recall this effect also appeared in some of the comparative polling of the different leadership candidates a few weeks ago, with a Johnson leadership appearing to result in a BXP to LD swing, but presumably via Con churn.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 27, 2019 11:56:27 GMT
The Brexit Party looks oddly low given what other pollsters are finding!
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 27, 2019 12:50:22 GMT
The Brexit Party looks oddly low given what other pollsters are finding! I don't think so as it is really a political toadstool feeding on the decay under the canopy and needing a certain symbiosis between Conservative broad leaf and Labour conifer trees. Sunlight, truth, policies and thought are all inclined to cause it serious damage. As the Conservative party recovers from its absolute low point and puts May's nonsense years behind it and embraces real Brexit and some actual broad-beam conservative policy, the BP will tend to wither and decay in a sticky mess. If Labour gets its act together over Brexit as well then the BP will be as small as UKIP and for the same reasons of vacuity, paucity of intellect and total irrelevance.
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Post by justin124 on Jun 27, 2019 14:27:30 GMT
The Brexit Party looks oddly low given what other pollsters are finding! I don't think so as it is really a political toadstool feeding on the decay under the canopy and needing a certain symbiosis between Conservative broad leaf and Labour conifer trees. Sunlight, truth, policies and thought are all inclined to cause it serious damage. As the Conservative party recovers from its absolute low point and puts May's nonsense years behind it and embraces real Brexit and some actual broad-beam conservative policy, the BP will tend to wither and decay in a sticky mess. If Labour gets its act together over Brexit as well then the BP will be as small as UKIP and for the same reasons of vacuity, paucity of intellect and total irrelevance. But the other polls conducted over the same period have the Brexit Party above 20%. I fully expect that to fall back to 14%/15% at a GE - but not yet. The LD figure also looks a bit high.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jun 27, 2019 14:29:58 GMT
I don't think so as it is really a political toadstool feeding on the decay under the canopy and needing a certain symbiosis between Conservative broad leaf and Labour conifer trees. Sunlight, truth, policies and thought are all inclined to cause it serious damage. As the Conservative party recovers from its absolute low point and puts May's nonsense years behind it and embraces real Brexit and some actual broad-beam conservative policy, the BP will tend to wither and decay in a sticky mess. If Labour gets its act together over Brexit as well then the BP will be as small as UKIP and for the same reasons of vacuity, paucity of intellect and total irrelevance. But the other polls conducted over the same period have the Brexit Party above 20%. I fully expect that to fall back to 14%/15% at a GE - but not yet. The LD figure also looks a bit high. Ipsos-MORI also seemed to have the Lib Dems a bit high for the EU elections - but it turned out to be almost spot on.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 27, 2019 14:48:52 GMT
I don't think so as it is really a political toadstool feeding on the decay under the canopy and needing a certain symbiosis between Conservative broad leaf and Labour conifer trees. Sunlight, truth, policies and thought are all inclined to cause it serious damage. As the Conservative party recovers from its absolute low point and puts May's nonsense years behind it and embraces real Brexit and some actual broad-beam conservative policy, the BP will tend to wither and decay in a sticky mess. If Labour gets its act together over Brexit as well then the BP will be as small as UKIP and for the same reasons of vacuity, paucity of intellect and total irrelevance. But the other polls conducted over the same period have the Brexit Party above 20%. I fully expect that to fall back to 14%/15% at a GE - but not yet. The LD figure also looks a bit high. But at its core the BP is a Farage vehicle and a one theme pseudo party based around Brexit Deficit. Frankly there is nothing else to it as far as I can deduce. There could well be a place for a more identitarian, harder right, English nationalist anti immigration party that is distinctly 'not-Labour' and perhaps a little less distinctly 'not-Conservative'; but this decidedly is not it at present. It is alive and prospering because of chronic impasse syndrome in the two majors who are each too gutless to make the big decisions for fear of breaking up their existing large tent coalitions of disparate elements that cannot be reconciled within the Brexit ambit. And whilst the BP may gloat and feast on the gutless major parties, it shows exactly the same tendencies for the same reasons itself. It dare not define a raft of core policies for fear of shedding support. It is caught in a bind of not appealing to prospects like me because it has no policy at all, or of losing people on every piece of developed policy as supporters see it not to be quite (or a lot) of what they want. So the BP pretends to be a party whilst only being a dustbin for the Brexiter disaffected. The Labour party pretends it has a Brexit policy whilst actually having and simultaneously denying three quite different positions held at the same time. And the Conservatives rush about madly asserting they are the only true and sincere Brexiter party whilst being majority sour-faced Remainers and determined not to leave on No Deal even though they know it is that or no Brexit at all. Three parties based entirely on implausible fictions and a raft of easy to digest lies. What is not to like?
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Post by justin124 on Jun 27, 2019 14:56:27 GMT
But the other polls conducted over the same period have the Brexit Party above 20%. I fully expect that to fall back to 14%/15% at a GE - but not yet. The LD figure also looks a bit high. Ipsos-MORI also seemed to have the Lib Dems a bit high for the EU elections - but it turned out to be almost spot on. Ipsos Mori has tended to be pretty volatile re- LD vote share and has often been out of line with other pollsters. On this occasion, it is the Brexit Party figure which stands out - no other pollster this month has them lower than 18% whilst Yougov has had them as high as 26%. . I suspect that they are currently in the range of 20% - 23%.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jun 27, 2019 15:40:54 GMT
Cracking poll When are those changes compared from?
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Post by carolus on Jun 27, 2019 15:52:03 GMT
Cracking poll When are those changes compared from? 10-14 May
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 27, 2019 17:16:57 GMT
Jeremy Corbyn satisfaction:
17% Satisfied 75% Unsatisfied
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Post by justin124 on Jun 27, 2019 18:06:06 GMT
Apparently Ipsos Mori still do not prompt for the Brexit Party. That may be significant.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 28, 2019 16:13:54 GMT
Jeremy Corbyn satisfaction: 17% Satisfied 75% Unsatisfied Bloody Blairite electorate!
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