The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 11, 2019 12:39:43 GMT
One interesting thing is that May is continually tracking well ahead of the government as a whole... And ahead of many of her mooted successors too, given all the (often justified) flak she has received that has to be of interest. (it also perhaps suggests that a new leader/PM might not solve all the Tories problems)
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 21, 2019 15:13:37 GMT
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 21, 2019 15:21:54 GMT
The state of politics right now:
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on May 16, 2019 10:50:13 GMT
No sign of a european poll, though.
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Post by woollyliberal on May 23, 2019 11:09:45 GMT
European Parliament voting intention:
BREX: 35% LDEM: 20% LAB: 15% GRN: 10% CON: 9% CHUK: 3% UKIP: 3%
via @ipsosmori, 20 - 22 May
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 23, 2019 11:11:09 GMT
European Parliament voting intention: BREX: 35% LDEM: 20% LAB: 15% GRN: 10% CON: 9% CHUK: 3% UKIP: 3% via @ipsosmori, 20 - 22 May In the words of my old Maths teacher. Hell's bells and buckets of blood!
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 23, 2019 11:12:33 GMT
Do these satisfaction ratings indicate that Jeremy Corbyn is only interested in what's happening in his own bubble. Have similar polls been run by other polling companies recently?
Also, dissatisfaction with Theresa May is still high; only the core Conservative/strong Brexiteer base is still loyal.
Observations overtaken by events. No. 863
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,673
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 23, 2019 11:16:17 GMT
European Parliament voting intention: BREX: 35% LDEM: 20% LAB: 15% GRN: 10% CON: 9% CHUK: 3% UKIP: 3% via @ipsosmori, 20 - 22 May In the words of my old Maths teacher. Hell's bells and buckets of blood! I've been trying to keep track of the polls, and this is what I've got:
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,673
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 23, 2019 11:18:03 GMT
I can't work out how to enter a table without having to manually type in every entry, and can't work out how to get an image to display larger than that ^^^.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 11:37:43 GMT
Interesting but not surprising data.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 23, 2019 13:30:46 GMT
There's some good news for Change UK. Maybe.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on May 23, 2019 14:34:26 GMT
What an absolute cracker. What the predicted seats on that? Lib Dems must be close to the "getting 2 seats in each region" line there...
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,206
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 23, 2019 15:19:25 GMT
European Parliament voting intention: BREX: 35% LDEM: 20% LAB: 15% GRN: 10% CON: 9% CHUK: 3% UKIP: 3% via @ipsosmori, 20 - 22 May So it's not just YouGov, then.
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Post by woollyliberal on May 23, 2019 15:40:19 GMT
So it's not just YouGov, then. Mori and YouGov have LD ahead of Lab BMG and Opinium and NCP have Lab ahead by 1, 2 and 3 points respectively Kantar, PanelBase, Survation and Opinium have large Labour leads Kantar, PanelBase, Survation and Opinium are older polls on a trend of LD increasing and Lab decreasing Mori, YouGov and BMG are the latest polls and follow the trend. Whether you prefer one house bias or another shouldn't influence your objectivity. The trend is that LD and BXP are on the up, Con and Lab are going down. Looking at the graph, you might wonder what would have happened if the election was delayed a few days. OTOH, it makes a change for the LDs not to peak a week before polling day. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
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Post by Toylyyev on May 23, 2019 15:43:51 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 23, 2019 16:01:22 GMT
So it's not just YouGov, then. Mori and YouGov have LD ahead of Lab BMG and Opinium and NCP have Lab ahead by 1, 2 and 3 points respectively Kantar, PanelBase, Survation and Opinium have large Labour leads Kantar, PanelBase, Survation and Opinium are older polls on a trend of LD increasing and Lab decreasing Mori, YouGov and BMG are the latest polls and follow the trend. Whether you prefer one house bias or another shouldn't influence your objectivity. The trend is that LD and BXP are on the up, Con and Lab are going down. Looking at the graph, you might wonder what would have happened if the election was delayed a few days. OTOH, it makes a change for the LDs not to peak a week before polling day. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_KingdomWhich I think was what our Noble Lord was saying a day or two back. Personally, still don't believe it. But I'm always the pessimist.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,206
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 23, 2019 16:06:00 GMT
A Lib Dem activist in my area posted today: "My son who is a journalist reckons there's a whole bunch of weird middle-aged men who basically sit and fill in the YouGov polling forms to boost what was UKIP and is now the BP. So he thinks they won’t do as well as the polling suggests. Fingers crossed". An amusing thought, but I'm not sure that I believe it, much though I'd love to.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on May 23, 2019 16:14:15 GMT
A Lib Dem activist in my area posted today: "My son who is a journalist reckons there's a whole bunch of weird middle-aged men who basically sit and fill in the YouGov polling forms to boost what was UKIP and is now the BP. So he thinks they won’t do as well as the polling suggests. Fingers crossed". An amusing thought, but I'm not sure that I believe it, much though I'd love to. They must do that for every pollster then. If not, it must be the Russians.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,206
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 23, 2019 16:21:08 GMT
A Lib Dem activist in my area posted today: "My son who is a journalist reckons there's a whole bunch of weird middle-aged men who basically sit and fill in the YouGov polling forms to boost what was UKIP and is now the BP. So he thinks they won’t do as well as the polling suggests. Fingers crossed". An amusing thought, but I'm not sure that I believe it, much though I'd love to. They must do that for every pollster then. If not, it must be the Russians. The Russians is perhaps more likely.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 23, 2019 16:26:09 GMT
A Lib Dem activist in my area posted today: "My son who is a journalist reckons there's a whole bunch of weird middle-aged men who basically sit and fill in the YouGov polling forms to boost what was UKIP and is now the BP. So he thinks they won’t do as well as the polling suggests. Fingers crossed". An amusing thought, but I'm not sure that I believe it, much though I'd love to. It sounds absurd, but it's possible that the pollsters are over-weighting the usual 2014 cohort and assuming turnout will be similar. If this doesn't hold - i.e. if we seethe more regular GE voters turning up - then the overall result will be a less Eurosceptic one. Technically, that would actually be a more middle-aged cohort, if only because younger voters turning out would actually weight it more to the average age.
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