jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 2, 2019 10:08:00 GMT
During the euro elections a poll (can’t remmember which one) had Labour on about 25% nationally while over 50% in the East Midlands of all places. Nuff said...
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 2, 2019 10:09:49 GMT
The low BP doesn't surprise me, because at this stage what incentive is there to vote BP, especially as it is likely a wasted vote. Longer term(in politics terms) the BP could be anywhere. A decent number of leave voters would never vote Conservative while many others will be wary of a party which until a few months ago was pushing May’s very unpopular deal and delaying our departure from the EU.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 2, 2019 11:10:34 GMT
Not mentioned yet, perhaps surprisingly, is that the "all voters" poll here had the Tories ahead by a rather smaller 3%.
Normally the "certain to vote" numbers are the more reliable (which is why Ipsos-MORI have used them as their headline figure since c2003) but in this case it may be slightly different and the "old style" figure is telling us something useful (ie that the "Boris bounce", while real, is also potentially pretty soft)
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 3, 2019 15:31:35 GMT
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Sept 19, 2019 10:35:40 GMT
Not clear exactly when fieldwork was done.
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 19, 2019 13:52:00 GMT
Perhaps in the South outside London it gives the LDs as 5%. Or 95%. Still, no obvious Anti-Revoke Slump as predicted by lots of Angry and Worried Labour Hacks. The crunch will come this coming weekend. Will the Labour Conference cause a Labour Bounce, a further Labour Slump, or a "Nobody has Noticed"?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 19, 2019 14:23:55 GMT
I fear that what you will see is a big Lib Dem surge, similar to in 2005/10 in safe Labour London (and other Metro) seats like the Hackneys, Islingtons, Lewishams etc but this will yield very few seats and that the increase in Lib Dem support will be very much lower in areas of traditional support in the West country etc. I say I 'fear' it but that is a bad choice of words because I expect it and I welcome it. There will be seats like St Albans, Guildford, Winchester etc where there will be gains but they won't be many and I think we will be looking at something akin to the 1980s with how poorly the Lib Dems are rewarded by their vote distribution
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Post by polaris on Sept 19, 2019 14:51:50 GMT
Perhaps in the South outside London it gives the LDs as 5%. Or 95%. Still, no obvious Anti-Revoke Slump as predicted by lots of Angry and Worried Labour Hacks. The crunch will come this coming weekend. Will the Labour Conference cause a Labour Bounce, a further Labour Slump, or a "Nobody has Noticed"? Last year, Labour's poll rating actually went down following their conference. I'd expect the same again if this year's conference is anything like last year's, with frontbenchers praising Derek Hatton and calling for a general strike, and delegates waving Palestinian flags en masse in the hall. 'Angry and worried' seems a good description of the mood in Labour, from what I can tell. It's striking how all their attacks are directed against your party and leader - they have barely laid a finger on Boris Johnson.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2019 14:53:21 GMT
nobody has noticed because nobody ever does
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 19, 2019 15:54:13 GMT
Perhaps in the South outside London it gives the LDs as 5%. Or 95%. Still, no obvious Anti-Revoke Slump as predicted by lots of Angry and Worried Labour Hacks. The crunch will come this coming weekend. Will the Labour Conference cause a Labour Bounce, a further Labour Slump, or a "Nobody has Noticed"? Last year, Labour's poll rating actually went down following their conference. I'd expect the same again if this year's conference is anything like last year's, with frontbenchers praising Derek Hatton and calling for a general strike, and delegates waving Palestinian flags en masse in the hall. 'Angry and worried' seems a good description of the mood in Labour, from what I can tell. It's striking how all their attacks are directed against your party and leader - they have barely laid a finger on Boris Johnson. Do you mean Labour, or the remnant right of the party?
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Post by polaris on Sept 19, 2019 15:59:00 GMT
Last year, Labour's poll rating actually went down following their conference. I'd expect the same again if this year's conference is anything like last year's, with frontbenchers praising Derek Hatton and calling for a general strike, and delegates waving Palestinian flags en masse in the hall. 'Angry and worried' seems a good description of the mood in Labour, from what I can tell. It's striking how all their attacks are directed against your party and leader - they have barely laid a finger on Boris Johnson. Do you mean Labour, or the remnant right of the party? I think that anyone in the Labour Party who has a brain must be angry and worried at the moment. Even committed left-wingers must look at recent election results and opinion polls, and realise that they are in deep shit.
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Post by polaris on Sept 19, 2019 16:00:31 GMT
nobody has noticed because nobody ever does Wrong - political parties always get a boost during their conference week (with Labour being the exception that proved the rule last year).
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Post by lbarnes on Sept 19, 2019 16:03:32 GMT
nobody has noticed because nobody ever does Wrong - political parties always get a boost during their conference week (with Labour being the exception that proved the rule last year). The phrase "exception that proves the rule" means the exact opposite of that. It's proof as in 'the proof of the pudding' and really means 'test'. If an exception is found then the rule is disproved.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2019 16:31:20 GMT
Actually parties don't always get a boost in the polls after party conference. There was an article by Anthony Wells on this i think
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2019 16:31:48 GMT
Do you mean Labour, or the remnant right of the party? I think that anyone in the Labour Party who has a brain must be angry and worried at the moment. Even committed left-wingers must look at recent election results and opinion polls, and realise that they are in deep shit. you're being unkind
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 19, 2019 16:45:17 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 19, 2019 18:34:23 GMT
nobody has noticed because nobody ever does Wrong - political parties always get a boost during their conference week (with Labour being the exception that proved the rule last year). Well, not the Lib Dems usually. This is the first conference anyone outside the Lib Dems has noticed since at least 2015
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2019 16:17:01 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2019 16:17:53 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2019 16:39:41 GMT
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