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Post by listener on Oct 5, 2019 10:02:03 GMT
I am a "statto" and I have gone through the results in this municipal year, dating back to 2 May 2019, looking at the change in Labour's vote share. I use the "top vote" method for calculating percentage shares.
There have been 75 by-elections since and including 2 May 2019, but excluding the double vacancies on 2 May and the Northumbria PCC by-election on 18 July (which incidentally saw a 17.4% drop in the Labour vote).
Of these 75 by-elections, there were 15 which were not contested by Labour either previously or in the by-election, resulting in inevitable increases or decreases in the Labour vote. Bishop's Castle on 12 September saw a Labour increase of 9.1%, because they did not field a candidate in 2017. Yesterday's by-election in Norton Fitzwarren and Staplegrove is another example, where the 31 votes achieved by Labour represents a 2.4% increase in the Labour vote.
This leaves 60 comparable by-elections, of which 52 show a reduction in the Labour vote and 8 show an increase. The 8 include 5 by-elections on 2 May 2019, last contested in 2017.
The other 3 by-elections where Labour has increased its vote are Isle of Wight (Whippingham and Osborne) (20 June) - last contested in 2017 - up by 3.6% Hartlepool (Hart) (25 July) - last contested in 2016 - up by 1.3% East Northamptonshire (Irthlingborough Waterloo) (8 August) - last contested in 2015 - up by 11.7%
The largest falls in vote share are usually caused by the intervention of new parties, particularly community and independent candidates. Amongst the 52 by-elections, where the Labour vote share has dropped, the largest drops were in Gloucester (Podsmead) (25 July) - last contested in 2016 - down by 34.0% Bury (Radcliffe West) (29 August) - last contested in 2018 - down by 24.7% East Riding of Yorkshire (Bridlington North) (11 July) - last contested on 2 May - down by 24.5% Craven (Upper Wharfedale) (2 May) - last contested in 2016 - down by 21.4% Kingston upon Hull (St. Andrew's and Docklands) (5 September) - last contested in 2018 - down by 20.1%
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Post by meurig on Oct 6, 2019 15:51:04 GMT
What the billy oh is happening to Powys? They were only elected two and half years ago and yet they've had more by-elections in that timeframe than Ceredigion has had in its entire existence (I am aware of Ceredigion having at least four by-elections since 1995 and I am sure that this is Powys' fifth since 2017) Ceredigion has had lots more than that Harry. Particularly in the early days. There was definitely a byelection in Llanfihangel Ystrad in the late 90s, and two on the same day in Aberporth and Borth after to replace Rev. Varney and Tom Raw Rees. In Aberystwyth I think the current incumbent of Bronglais won his seat in a byelection (though possibly on the old Aber East boundaries) and Rheidol saw one just after the regular set of elections in 2008. There was one in Cardigan I’m pretty sure (again on old boundaries) when the independent (Wilson?) replaced Trevor Griffiths, likewise in Llanbadarn. Definitely Ciliau Aeron after Maskell’s resignation (I campaigned in that one in temperatures of minus 8). Plus sadly the more recent one in Sulien. That’s 9 already!
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Post by robbienicoll on Oct 6, 2019 17:38:45 GMT
Keith and Cullen scheduled for 21st November.
Edit: I see this is already on the list, P&J well behind the announcement.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Oct 7, 2019 16:36:41 GMT
Sheltie: Nominations closed for Shetland by-elections. Interestingly it isn't a completely Independent field, as is the norm in Shetland. There's an SNP candidate standing in Shetland Central. Eagle-eyed followers may also recall Johan Adamson was the Labour candidate for MSP in Aug. t.co/4G4ZSnokFY
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Post by timrollpickering on Oct 9, 2019 20:08:42 GMT
7 November -6 Croydon LBC - Fairfield- Lab resignation The Conservative candidate is Jayde Edwards: The ward covers the centre of Croydon itself, with the Brighton main line as its eastern boundary. East Croydon and West Croydon are both in the ward along with the central loop of Tramlink that connects them. It contains both shopping centres, Whitgift and Centrale, various local and national government offices and Croydon College. "Fair Field" was the historic site of a fair; the name is now used by both Fairfield Halls theatre & concert hall and the adjacent Fairfield Gardens I remember being in A Place in Space one Thursday in the summer of 1999 (then on the other side of Church Street) when a tram on a test run shot past the front door. For once there was more science fiction outside the shop than inside.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2019 18:35:01 GMT
This weeks by election summary
There are 15 by elections in the rest of October and 18 already scheduled in November. There are a further 11 known or impending vacancies where there is currently no date for the by-election.
17 October - 4 Gravesham DC, Westcourt- Labour died- 4 candidates- Con, Lab, Green, UKIP Liverpool MBC, Princes Park- Labour resignation- 4 candidates- Con, Lab, LD, Green North Yorkshire CC, Upper Dales - Independent died- 3 candidates- Con, Green, Ind Richmondshire DC, Hawes, High Abbotside & Upper Swaledale - Independent died- 4 candidates- Con, LD, Green, Ind
24 October- 8 Daventry DC, Abbey North- Labour resignation-3 candidates, Con, Lab, LD Devon CC, Heavitree and Whipton- Labour resignation- 5 candidates- Con, Lab, LD, Green,For Britain Flintshire UA- Bagillt West- Labour resignation- 2 candidates- Lab, Ind Powys UA- Llandrindod North- Independent resignation- 3 candidates- Con, Lab, LD Powys UA- Newtown South- Conservative resignation- 3 candidates- Con, LD, PC South Ribble DC- Coupe Green and Gregson Lane- Conseravtive resignation- 3 candidates- Con, LD, Ind West Lindsey DC- Torksey- Conservative resignation- 4 candidates- Con, Lab, LD, Brexit Wiltshire UA - Melksham Without South- Conservative resignation- 2 candidates- Con, LD
29 October -1 Warwick DC, Lillington, Lib Dem resignation- 3 candidates- Con, Lab, LD
30 October -1 Windsor and Maidenhead UA- Riverside- Conservative resignation- 6 candidates- Con, Lab, LD, Green, WEP, The Borough First
31 October -1 Worcestershire CC- Bromsgrove South- Labour resignation- 4 candidates- Con, Lab, LD, Ind
7 November -6 Chelmsford DC- Marconi- Lib Dem resignation Cornwall UA- Wadebridge West- Lib Dem resignation - 5 candidates- Con, LD, Green, Ind, No description Croydon LBC - Fairfield- Lab resignation Pembrokeshire UA- Hundleton- Independent died- 9 candidates- Con, LD, Ind, Ind, Ind, Ind, ND, ND,ND Shetland UA- Lerwick South- Independent resignation- 5 Candidates- Ind, Ind, Ind, Ind, ND Shetland UA- Shetland Central- Independent resignation- 5 Candidates- SNP, Ind, Ind, ND, ND
14 November- 8 Eden DC- Shap- Conservative resignation Fife UA- Dunfermline Central- Conservative resignation Fife UA- Rosyth- SNP resignation Highland UA- Inverness Central, SNP resignation Neath Port Talbot UA- Rhos- Labour resignation Powys UA St Marys- Conservative resignation Torbay UA- Goodrinton and Roselands, Lib Dem resignation Tunbridge Wells DC, Culverden, Conservative died
21 November- 4 Aberdeen UA, Torry and Ferryhill, SNP resignation Chichester DC, Loxwood, Green elected as Lib Dem resignation Moray UA- Keith and Cullen- Independent resignation West Sussex CC, Bourne- Conservative sitting as Brexit Party resignation
Not yet called - 11
Bury MBC, Church, Conservative died 3 September Cardiff UA, Llanishen - Labour resignation 10 October Chorley DC, Chorley North West, Independent died 15 September Hounslow LB, Feltham North- Labour died 27 August Hounslow LB, Heston West - Labour died 2 June Leeds MBC, Wetherby- Conservative died- 4 October Leicestershire CC, Cosby and Countesthorpe- Conservative died 30 August Liverpool CC, Picton- Labour resignation 24 September Oxfordshire CC, Wallingford- Independent resignation 10 September Salford MBC- Pendlebury- Labour died 4 October Test Valley DC, Andover St Mary- Andover alliance resignation pending
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 11, 2019 19:05:29 GMT
This weeks by election summary There are 14 by elections in the rest of October and 18 already scheduled in November. There are a further 11 known or impending vacancies where there is currently no date for the by-election. 24 October- 7 Daventry DC, Abbey North- Labour resignation-3 candidates, Con, Lab, LD Devon CC, Heavitree and Whipton- Labour resignation- 5 candidates- Con, Lab, LD, Green,For Britain Flintshire UA- Bagillt West- Labour resignation- 2 candidates- Lab, Ind Powys UA- Llandidrod North- Independent resignation- 3 candidates- Con, Lab, LD Powys UA- Newtown South- Conservative resignation- 3 candidates- Con, LD, PC South Ribble DC- Coupe Green and Gregson Lane- Conseravtive resignation- 3 candidates- Con, LD, Ind Wiltshire UA - Melksham Without South- Conservative resignation- 2 candidates- Con, LD Llandrindod I assume ?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 11, 2019 19:11:30 GMT
The Cardiff resignation has happened; the Test Valley one has not happened yet.
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Post by iainbhx on Oct 11, 2019 19:14:17 GMT
You do wonder how long that Hounslow vacancy will go on for. May 2020?
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2019 19:17:43 GMT
This weeks by election summary There are 14 by elections in the rest of October and 18 already scheduled in November. There are a further 11 known or impending vacancies where there is currently no date for the by-election. 24 October- 7 Daventry DC, Abbey North- Labour resignation-3 candidates, Con, Lab, LD Devon CC, Heavitree and Whipton- Labour resignation- 5 candidates- Con, Lab, LD, Green,For Britain Flintshire UA- Bagillt West- Labour resignation- 2 candidates- Lab, Ind Powys UA- Llandidrod North- Independent resignation- 3 candidates- Con, Lab, LD Powys UA- Newtown South- Conservative resignation- 3 candidates- Con, LD, PC South Ribble DC- Coupe Green and Gregson Lane- Conseravtive resignation- 3 candidates- Con, LD, Ind Wiltshire UA - Melksham Without South- Conservative resignation- 2 candidates- Con, LD Llandrindod I assume ? Thanks. Corrected.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2019 19:19:32 GMT
The Cardiff resignation has happened; the Test Valley one has not happened yet. Thanks. Corrected. Let me know any others that don’t tally with your list.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 11, 2019 19:22:59 GMT
Pembrokeshire Hundleton on 7 November has 9 candidates. When was the last single vacancy by election with as many candidates as that?
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greenhert
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Post by greenhert on Oct 11, 2019 20:06:52 GMT
Pembrokeshire Hundleton on 7 November has 9 candidates. When was the last single vacancy by election with as many candidates as that? Only last year. Moreover in the Hundleton by-election seven of the candidates are Independents or have no description. Why so many for such a small village?
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Post by lancastrian on Oct 11, 2019 23:40:32 GMT
Pembrokeshire Hundleton on 7 November has 9 candidates. When was the last single vacancy by election with as many candidates as that? Only last year. Moreover in the Hundleton by-election seven of the candidates are Independents or have no description. Why so many for such a small village? It's not one village - about half the electorate is in Hundleton, with the rest spread over an area ten times the size of some constituencies. Plus, this is Pembrokeshire we're talking about. Among the independent candidates, Daphne Bush represented a Pembroke ward as a member of the Independent Plus group until 2017, whilst Jonathan Nutting was a Pembrokeshire Alliance councillor, for a different ward in Pembroke. David Edwards apparently is, or was earlier this year, a member of the Labour Party. Good luck to everyone in the prediction competition!
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Post by listener on Oct 12, 2019 1:26:45 GMT
By-Elections on 24 October - the Torksey by-election in West Lindsey seems to have dropped off the list
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 12, 2019 6:38:43 GMT
By-Elections on 24 October - the Torksey by-election in West Lindsey seems to have dropped off the list Thanks- list amended
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 12, 2019 11:17:19 GMT
Only last year. Moreover in the Hundleton by-election seven of the candidates are Independents or have no description. Why so many for such a small village? It's not one village - about half the electorate is in Hundleton, with the rest spread over an area ten times the size of some constituencies. Plus, this is Pembrokeshire we're talking about. Among the independent candidates, Daphne Bush represented a Pembroke ward as a member of the Independent Plus group until 2017, whilst Jonathan Nutting was a Pembrokeshire Alliance councillor, for a different ward in Pembroke. David Edwards apparently is, or was earlier this year, a member of the Labour Party. Good luck to everyone in the prediction competition! But still no Ein Gwlad candidate?
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 12, 2019 12:46:51 GMT
It's not one village - about half the electorate is in Hundleton, with the rest spread over an area ten times the size of some constituencies. Plus, this is Pembrokeshire we're talking about. Among the independent candidates, Daphne Bush represented a Pembroke ward as a member of the Independent Plus group until 2017, whilst Jonathan Nutting was a Pembrokeshire Alliance councillor, for a different ward in Pembroke. David Edwards apparently is, or was earlier this year, a member of the Labour Party. Good luck to everyone in the prediction competition! But still no Ein Gwlad candidate? Maybe they're waiting for a ward where they can be elected unopposed?
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wallington
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Post by wallington on Oct 12, 2019 18:30:46 GMT
Ive heard there has been a whole lot of kerfuffle in the selection of the Labour candidate in Fairfield. From what I gather a candidate won the vote of local party members, but the Croydon Labour party announced someone else as being selected. I don't know the full ins and outs, but a friend of mine who attended the vote is rather confused and annoyed.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 13, 2019 12:06:13 GMT
Ive heard there has been a whole lot of kerfuffle in the selection of the Labour candidate in Fairfield. From what I gather a candidate won the vote of local party members, but the Croydon Labour party announced someone else as being selected. I don't know the full ins and outs, but a friend of mine who attended the vote is rather confused and annoyed. Equally I don't know the details, but it may be worth mentioning that the person selected by the membership vote is a Corbyn supporter (José Joseph, street market trader), and the official candidate imposed by the local leadership is not (Carragher Skipper). The leadership of Croydon Labour Party is essentially Blairite. The skullduggery and the contrafibularities were all done at the last minute, so presumably there wasn't time for Joseph to get nominated as a rival/independent candidate. The SOPN won't be published until tomorrow, but there probably won't be any big surprises in the list of candidates (four main parties and maybe insignificant independent or UKIP candidates). The Conservatives are campaigning hard in the ward, and the candidate (Jayde Edwards, age 20, single mum with a 4-year-old son) has the practical support of several people from a community group she's involved in. When we did the campaign launch last week, about 45 people turned out for the initial canvassing/leafleting session.
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