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Post by thinwhiteduke on Sept 21, 2019 20:01:30 GMT
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Deleted
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Opinium
Sept 21, 2019 20:04:06 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2019 20:04:06 GMT
Wheres Labours vote going?
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 21, 2019 20:13:58 GMT
Wheres Labours vote going? Greens, SNP, Plaid and rounding errors?
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Deleted
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Opinium
Sept 21, 2019 20:15:20 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2019 20:15:20 GMT
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Sept 21, 2019 20:15:58 GMT
Wheres Labours vote going? Down the toilet!
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Deleted
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Opinium
Sept 21, 2019 20:20:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2019 20:20:12 GMT
While funny it doesn't answer the question
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Sept 21, 2019 20:22:12 GMT
Wheres Labours vote going? looking at the crossovers in rough numbers about 25% of the 2017 vote has gone lib dem, 10% to brexit party,5% green,5%nats,5%cons and there appears almost no flow back.
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Deleted
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Opinium
Sept 21, 2019 20:24:48 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2019 20:24:48 GMT
Wheres Labours vote going? looking at the crossovers in rough numbers about 25% of the 2017 vote has gone lib dem, 10% to brexit party,5% green,5%nats,5%cons and there appears almost no flow back. have you got the tables?
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Sept 21, 2019 20:31:17 GMT
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Opinium
Sept 21, 2019 20:40:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2019 20:40:03 GMT
ah got this but thanks no opinium though?
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Sept 21, 2019 20:49:09 GMT
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Opinium
Sept 21, 2019 20:57:09 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 21, 2019 20:57:09 GMT
these are the old ones but thanks anyway
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 21, 2019 21:03:58 GMT
Rounding changes are not "errors" they are just what they say. (It is theoretically possible that if you are rounding to the nearest whole number, just one respondent more or less can cause a change of 1%. Of course in practice it is always more complicated than that! But it shows how a change of 1% is not actually a significant change regardless of sampling errors).
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 21, 2019 23:08:59 GMT
While funny it doesn't answer the question Difficult to say, poll on poll. Could it be churn adjustment, especially from Labour to non voting, showing up in one poll? Then they could be a loss to SNP and PC trend showing up in just the one poll.
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Opinium
Sept 22, 2019 6:11:28 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 22, 2019 6:11:28 GMT
Rounding changes are not "errors" they are just what they say. (It is theoretically possible that if you are rounding to the nearest whole number, just one respondent more or less can cause a change of 1%. Of course in practice it is always more complicated than that! But it shows how a change of 1% is not actually a significant change regardless of sampling errors). Well, the "error" comes in the interpretation. For example in the apparently static Tory figure was 36.51 last time and 37.49 this time, then nearly 1% of the loss in Labour vote could have gone there. Add all these together and they can add up to a few %. However they do not make the Labour figure less reliable, only interpreting where it went from one poll to the next. All the changes in this poll are within m.o.e. anyway, but as highlighted in the article on the YouGov thread, Opinium gives higher Tory figures and lower LD and BXP than most of the others.
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 22, 2019 15:07:57 GMT
Indeed. Actual numbers have to be followed in a series of polls from the same organisation. But trends (who is up and who is down and who is static) can be compared across pollsters. But don't expect most of the media to worry about things like this or even understand them.
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 25, 2019 13:11:45 GMT
no-one posted much about the last Opinium poll. There was lots of stuff in it...
See table V500, preferred options for all voters: Split is 40% no deal, 18% renegotiate plus ref, 26% revoke, 16% d/k Among Labour voters it is 16/35/35/14, showing plenty of support for Revoke among Labour voters There are a bunch of tables that ask all voters what they think is the policy stance of each Party. Most voters seem to have figured out the Tories want to leave on Oct 31st, but a surprising 13% want another referendum and 4% think they want to revoke! lib Dem voters know the Tory position slightly better than Tory voters and significantly better than Labour. 21% of all voters think Labour want to Revoke, including 32% of Tory voters. Lib Dem voters understand the Labour policy significantly better than Labour voters. 58% of lab voters know the correct policy, 11% think their Party wants to Revoke, 20% to Leave with no deal, and 25% don’t know. (figures for LD voters regarding Lab policy 70/10/3/17). 84% of Lib Dem voters know the new Revoke policy, compared with only 45% of Lab voters.
I could go on. There are figures for 2017 lab Remainers vs leavers, EU ref vote showing 50% of all Remainers now want to Revoke, dnv want to revoke (plurality) etc etc.
I think these results are the main basis for the Lib Dem policy shift (I assume they got them from private polling). I suspect Blair may have seen them too which is why he is telling Lab not to have an election before Brexit has been resolved…
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 28, 2019 19:10:37 GMT
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middyman
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"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
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Post by middyman on Sept 28, 2019 19:21:49 GMT
I am not surprised. The most Boris is attacked and thwarted, the more sympathy he gathers.
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Post by lbarnes on Sept 28, 2019 19:58:50 GMT
I am not surprised. The most Boris is attacked and thwarted, the more sympathy he gathers. But the Tories are down according to this. Not by much yet still down.
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