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Post by lbarnes on Jul 28, 2019 12:06:46 GMT
Nevertheless, Vibe is essentially correct. In my view the "£350 million" was fraud because persisted with after the ONS said it was untrue, whereas (e.g.) Osborn's punishment budget threat was merely a prediction of what he believed would be needed if he was to stick to his borrowing limits (which were in fact junked, thereby making comparison with what actually happened hypothetical.) But I'm not a Leave voter. The Leave campaign was unashamedly based on emotions not facts so if the facts quoted were a bit dodgy that's not material, whereas the Remain Campaign was based on harsh realities of life outside the EU so any inaccuracy, for a Leave voter, went to the heart of the Remain case. Quite correct Adam. I agree with you. The contest was strange to observe because it was as if two armies were squaring up on different fields and facing in different directions to one another. They were seeking entirely different conflicts to one another. The propoganda on both sides was poor to bad but far more effective on the Leave side, because we understood our market so much better than Remain did. We inherently knew that our cause was all about mood management and enabling a crude heuristics to flood the minds of our putative audience. In short we bred up a very strong desire for a 'something' that was left largely unstated (and thus the construct of each man in his own head) and was therefore nearly impossible to rebut or to argue with. It was impervious to facts because it was not policy, economics or facts based. It was quite brilliant and it is one of the great sadnesses of my life that I was not involved in the planning as it was just so me. Once the core mood was implanted in the individual mind, that individual did all the rest himself and invented his own personal meta-truth of Leave. I think Johnson is now hoping to recreate this team to do the same thing for a Johnsonian take-over of the heads of a section of the right in Britain. It is to inculcate the seeds in each person that they tend and nuture into their own understanding of what Johnsonianism is. Then it doesn't matter much what he says or what the polices are, for each man will have his own paradigm and be hoping and working towards it. Eveyone will think it is all about them and in their own image. If we can pull this off.........?? The fraud wasn't in connection with claims made by either side in the campaign but with how it was conducted and funded.
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Post by andrew111 on Jul 28, 2019 12:08:18 GMT
Nevertheless, Vibe is essentially correct. In my view the "£350 million" was fraud because persisted with after the ONS said it was untrue, whereas (e.g.) Osborn's punishment budget threat was merely a prediction of what he believed would be needed if he was to stick to his borrowing limits (which were in fact junked, thereby making comparison with what actually happened hypothetical.) But I'm not a Leave voter. The Leave campaign was unashamedly based on emotions not facts so if the facts quoted were a bit dodgy that's not material, whereas the Remain Campaign was based on harsh realities of life outside the EU so any inaccuracy, for a Leave voter, went to the heart of the Remain case. Quite correct Adam. I agree with you. The contest was strange to observe because it was as if two armies were squaring up on different fields and facing in different directions to one another. They were seeking entirely different conflicts to one another. The propoganda on both sides was poor to bad but far more effective on the Leave side, because we understood our market so much better than Remain did. We inherently knew that our cause was all about mood management and enabling a crude heuristics to flood the minds of our putative audience. In short we bred up a very strong desire for a 'something' that was left largely unstated (and thus the construct of each man in his own head) and was therefore nearly impossible to rebut or to argue with. It was impervious to facts because it was not policy, economics or facts based. It was quite brilliant and it is one of the great sadnesses of my life that I was not involved in the planning as it was just so me. Once the core mood was implanted in the individual mind, that individual did all the rest himself and invented his own personal meta-truth of Leave. I think Johnson is now hoping to recreate this team to do the same thing for a Johnsonian take-over of the heads of a section of the right in Britain. It is to inculcate the seeds in each person that they tend and nuture into their own understanding of what Johnsonianism is. Then it doesn't matter much what he says or what the polices are, for each man will have his own paradigm and be hoping and working towards it. Eveyone will think it is all about them and in their own image. If we can pull this off.........?? No wonder you guys don't want a re-run! Such a house of cards....
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 28, 2019 13:21:20 GMT
Oh matureleft I do commend you on that brilliant choice for so many reasons. 'Dover Beach'! What better title for this subject! "..melancholy long withdrawing roar..." "..and naked shingles of the world.." Thank you. Sophocles long ago Heard it on the Aegean.....
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Deleted
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Opinium
Jul 28, 2019 16:30:42 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 28, 2019 16:30:42 GMT
Best PM
Boris 26 Corbyn 15 Swinson 12 Farage 11
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 28, 2019 18:00:04 GMT
Farage being below Swinson is surprising. At the very least he should be able to get Brexit Party + a decent number of Tory voters. Eliminating the 24% Don’t know/other would probably help.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 29, 2019 8:52:10 GMT
Part of the problem is that YouGov have a very efficient publicity machine.
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on Jul 29, 2019 9:54:53 GMT
YouGov are the best known polling firm and release polls a lot more often than others which helps. Agree that it paints an incorrect picture of the polling though (Fiona Bruce vs Diane Abbott comes to mind).
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Aug 10, 2019 20:01:33 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Member is Online
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Opinium
Aug 10, 2019 20:29:29 GMT
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Post by cogload on Aug 10, 2019 20:29:29 GMT
Err. Ok.
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Deleted
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Opinium
Aug 11, 2019 9:21:10 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2019 9:21:10 GMT
Best PM Boris 30 Corbyn 16 Swinson 11 Farage 10
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Deleted
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Opinium
Aug 24, 2019 21:30:55 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2019 21:30:55 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Aug 26, 2019 0:07:25 GMT
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 26, 2019 6:23:40 GMT
Average of polls since Johnson became PM. All except YouGov Con 32.3, Lab 28.2, LDm 16.2, Brx 13.3, Grn 4.1, UKIP1.4, Change 0.7, Oth 5.7 YouGov average Con 30.6, Lab 21.1, LDm 20.3, Brx 13.9, Grn 7.7, UKIP 0.2, Change 0.0, Oth 6.2
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 26, 2019 9:43:31 GMT
Hmmm, the Tories got a 10 seat majority with a lead of about 7 points in 2015. That they would do that well, and Labour drop to 200 seats, on those figures does stretch credulity somewhat. And no SNP advance on 2017 either?
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iain
Lib Dem
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Opinium
Aug 26, 2019 10:40:12 GMT
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Post by iain on Aug 26, 2019 10:40:12 GMT
Hmmm, the Tories got a 10 seat majority with a lead of about 7 points in 2015. That they would do that well, and Labour drop to 200 seats, on those figures does stretch credulity somewhat. And no SNP advance on 2017 either? Flavible (which I believe just uses universal swing) gives: Con - 331 Lab - 201 SNP - 50 LD - 44 Grn - 1
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 7, 2019 17:16:16 GMT
"Michael Savage @michaelsavage
NEW: Tories secure a 10-point lead in the latest @opiniumresearch poll for @observeruk :
CON 35 (+3) LAB 25 (-1) LD 17 (+2) BREX 13 (-3)"
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 7, 2019 21:11:08 GMT
Opinium gives the LDs 17%? Christmas is coming early.
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Opinium
Sept 9, 2019 22:00:52 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 9, 2019 22:00:52 GMT
Same poll shows Swinson polling higher than The Absolute Boy.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Sept 14, 2019 19:05:00 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 15, 2019 9:10:18 GMT
Tories and BxP on half the vote combined?
OK, then.
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