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Post by yellowperil on Sept 28, 2019 20:04:44 GMT
Opinium gives the LDs 17%? Christmas is coming early. In that case , 3 weeks on, 3 more points and it really is Christmas?
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Opinium
Sept 28, 2019 20:04:50 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 28, 2019 20:04:50 GMT
I am not surprised. The most Boris is attacked and thwarted, the more sympathy he gathers. But the Tories are down according to this. Not by much yet still down. Within MOE.. Lib Dems are up 6% since July though. That is well outside MOE
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 28, 2019 20:13:43 GMT
I am not surprised. The most Boris is attacked and thwarted, the more sympathy he gathers. But the Tories are down according to this. Not by much yet still down. What is more , BxP was also down a bit and and Lab and LibDem up 5 points between them, which makes me wonder where that comment came from.
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 28, 2019 20:43:57 GMT
20% LD on Opinium is indeed remarkable. But of course one poll does not make a summer (or even an autumn). Compared with the early spring when I htinik Opinium was going us 6% or 7% it is certainly very significant. Where do the other 3% in the LD and Lab increases come from?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 28, 2019 20:50:50 GMT
Lib Dems benefit from surge in Remainers and Labour in leavers
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Post by carolus on Sept 28, 2019 20:58:05 GMT
20% LD on Opinium is indeed remarkable. But of course one poll does not make a summer (or even an autumn). Compared with the early spring when I htinik Opinium was going us 6% or 7% it is certainly very significant. Where do the other 3% in the LD and Lab increases come from? The last Opinium was the one that had UKIP on an unusually high 2%, so I suspect this one will see them falling back to 1%. The last poll also totalled 99% due to rounding, I think, so entirely possible another 1-2% change just from rounding. Or possibly Greens fall by a point or so from the 4% they were on last time.
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Vibe
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Opinium
Sept 28, 2019 22:17:07 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Sept 28, 2019 22:17:07 GMT
Brexit could really be a blessing in disguise for Swinson
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 29, 2019 10:12:40 GMT
Could be, as ever with FPTP it depends on where those vote changes actually are.
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Post by carolus on Sept 29, 2019 10:17:02 GMT
20% LD on Opinium is indeed remarkable. But of course one poll does not make a summer (or even an autumn). Compared with the early spring when I htinik Opinium was going us 6% or 7% it is certainly very significant. Where do the other 3% in the LD and Lab increases come from? The last Opinium was the one that had UKIP on an unusually high 2%, so I suspect this one will see them falling back to 1%. The last poll also totalled 99% due to rounding, I think, so entirely possible another 1-2% change just from rounding. Or possibly Greens fall by a point or so from the 4% they were on last time.
Con 36 (-1) Lab 24 (+2) LD 20 (+3) BXP 11 (-1) SNP 5 (+1) Grn 2 (-2) PC 1 (n/c) UKIP 0 (-2)
The opinium write-up suggests these changes are LDs taking the lead amongst remianers, but labour +5% amongst leavers.
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 29, 2019 16:21:55 GMT
Or zero! (plus or minus 2% of course).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2019 17:23:40 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 29, 2019 18:39:41 GMT
Does that mean Swinson is now officially the most popular Party leader? (apart from all the others)
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 29, 2019 20:45:26 GMT
Only net least unpopular. Silly stats anyway in my view.
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Post by curiousliberal on Sept 30, 2019 14:27:48 GMT
Does that mean Swinson is now officially the most popular Party leader? (apart from all the others) Yes, tied with Nigel Farage.
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Opinium
Oct 2, 2019 10:08:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2019 10:08:03 GMT
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 2, 2019 11:49:49 GMT
Conference bounce for JC? He was handed a free hit on BoJo, and even he couldn't miss that one in his speech.
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cogload
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Opinium
Oct 5, 2019 20:04:03 GMT
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Post by cogload on Oct 5, 2019 20:04:03 GMT
Rightyho
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 38% (+2) LAB: 23% (-1) LDEM: 15% (-5) BREX: 12% (+1) GRN: 4% (+2)
via @opiniumresearch, 03 - 04 Oct Chgs. w/ 27 Sep
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Vibe
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Opinium
Oct 5, 2019 20:21:07 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Oct 5, 2019 20:21:07 GMT
Rightyho Westminster voting intention: CON: 38% (+2) LAB: 23% (-1) LDEM: 15% (-5) BREX: 12% (+1) GRN: 4% (+2) via @opiniumresearch, 03 - 04 Oct Chgs. w/ 27 Sep -5 eh!?
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Oct 5, 2019 22:22:47 GMT
Rightyho Westminster voting intention: CON: 38% (+2) LAB: 23% (-1) LDEM: 15% (-5) BREX: 12% (+1) GRN: 4% (+2) via @opiniumresearch, 03 - 04 Oct Chgs. w/ 27 Sep I’m sure the media will give this poll the same amount of attention as a YouGov one showing the Lib Dems narrowly in 2nd place?
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Opinium
Oct 6, 2019 6:57:12 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 6, 2019 6:57:12 GMT
The dictum of polling experts has tended to look for a reason why something has happened. Logically, there's no reason why the Liberal Democrats would have gone down 5% since the last poll, and that the majority of these votes would have gone to either the Tories and the Brexit Party. If in the current circumstances the LDs lose support, it would only be logical for it to go to parties which are not pro-Brexit. Therefore such experts would probably hint that this poll be treated with considerable caution. Almost all polls now put the Leave vote under 50% so it would be a major surprise if the Tories, the BP & UKIP totalled over 50% now, especially as some Leave supporters will undoubtedly not budge from Labour, or even other parties. Yes, politics has actually dropped (relatively) off the media radar for a few days since the Tory conference and other post conference polls have not shown the Lib Dems down. Opinium are usually the worst poll for the Lib Dems so the last poll putting them on 20% was probably at the upper end of moe. In other words the "correct" LD % in Opinium may be 18% not 20%. Some other pollsters like Comres have had the Lib Dems bouncing up and down by 4% recently and weighting to the statistically small sample of 2017 Lib Dem voters combined with the regionality of the current Lib Dem vote (as seen in the EU election) may increase the error range beyond normal moe. Weird regional cross-breaks would be a sign of this. Basically I would expect the Lib Dem vote shares to be in the same order as the EU election, highest in London, lowest in the north and Scotland etc. Tabs are not out yet
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