Deleted
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Opinium
Sept 19, 2018 20:47:12 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Sept 19, 2018 20:47:12 GMT
Though the last ICM, DeltaPoll & Kantar all have the Lib Dems in single figures Kantar have now joined the 10% club. that sounds dirty
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 19, 2018 21:27:49 GMT
And aren't most of the recent polls putting the LibDems in double figures from YouGov? FWIW the pollsters giving them lower scores got it right last year. Catmanjeff on UKpolling report does stats occasionally on YouGov polls, and the Lib Dems are up about 3% since the start of the year. That ought to be significant independent of the actual level of support. The Britain Elects poll of polls shows something a bit similar, but less. Opinium don't seem to capture this although they look to be a bit higher. They do not do as many polls as YouGov though so stats on them are not very significant.
Similar trends were seen before the 2017 GE so it can all change anyway..
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 23, 2018 14:54:42 GMT
Latest Opinium: Con 37% -2 Lab 38% +1 LDem 9% +2 UKIP 8% +2
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 24, 2018 13:07:16 GMT
Heavens - if Opinium says we are on 9% we must be getting (if not quite a bounce) a bit of a flutter at the moment.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,199
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 24, 2018 13:34:26 GMT
Heavens - if Opinium says we are on 9% we must be getting (if not quite a bounce) a bit of a flutter at the moment. It's a quick correction of a poll from a week ago giving us 7%, and brings them closer to the pack who are reporting 10%+. But the UKIP figure of 8% must be an outlier, as, in fairness, must the Ipsos-Mori poll recently that gave them 2%. 5% seems to be about average for them right now.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Sept 24, 2018 15:29:26 GMT
The real test is in the number of seats. Can they exceed 20?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 26, 2018 10:45:29 GMT
Latest Opinium: Con 37% -2 Lab 38% +1 LDem 9% +2 UKIP 8% +2 According to Britain Elects the Labour figure is 39%?
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Post by tonygreaves on Sept 26, 2018 15:47:19 GMT
That is within the margin of error.
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Post by archaeologist on Sept 27, 2018 7:55:01 GMT
Looking at the raw data in the data tables on the Opinium website the figures are
Con 37.0 Lab 38.6 LDm 8.6 UKIP 8.0 Grn 2.3 Oth 5.6
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Post by bigfatron on Sept 29, 2018 14:39:28 GMT
Apologies if it is slightly inaccurate - I took it from a report on UK Polling Report
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Post by archaeologist on Oct 7, 2018 8:37:02 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,636
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2018 9:01:27 GMT
Which is actually Labour up three points from their last poll (which did not get posted on here) and the LibDems down two.
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Post by archaeologist on Oct 15, 2018 13:39:42 GMT
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 15, 2018 14:03:16 GMT
Oh well that Lib Dem bounce is dead isn't it?
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,783
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Opinium
Oct 15, 2018 15:30:13 GMT
via mobile
Post by iain on Oct 15, 2018 15:30:13 GMT
Oh well that Lib Dem bounce is dead isn't it? We always do shit with Opinium, so this isn’t the poll I’d choose to confirm that opinion.
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Deleted
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Opinium
Oct 15, 2018 15:35:00 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2018 15:35:00 GMT
Oh well that Lib Dem bounce is dead isn't it? We always do shit with Opinium, so this isn’t the poll I’d choose to confirm that opinion. generally I tend to look at movement accross the polls
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 15, 2018 16:14:59 GMT
Oh well that Lib Dem bounce is dead isn't it? That's a bit hard- if you are comparing like for like, the 8% quoted here compares with last time's ...7%
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Oct 15, 2018 19:59:33 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 15, 2018 21:10:16 GMT
But two of those are Opinium (see iain's comment above) and over those two the most recent is up one point. The other is YouGov (which is flat since previous poll). But if you go back a bit further you can see us falling back from 11% on the previous YouGov, and the last two BMGs had us drop from 12% to 10%.
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Post by archaeologist on Nov 17, 2018 17:08:00 GMT
The latest Opinium poll - some big shifts going on or is it an outlier?
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