Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,117
|
Post by Jack on Feb 10, 2018 20:36:01 GMT
|
|
Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
|
Post by Izzyeviel on Feb 10, 2018 21:31:00 GMT
This time next year we'll be on 10% woot!
|
|
|
Opinium
Feb 10, 2018 21:31:37 GMT
via mobile
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Feb 10, 2018 21:31:37 GMT
Keep 'em coming
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Feb 10, 2018 21:35:52 GMT
The next Survation will be interesting. They were most accurate at the election IIRC.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Opinium
Feb 11, 2018 0:06:12 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2018 0:06:12 GMT
Though theyre methodology was off.
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,069
|
Opinium
Feb 11, 2018 0:12:51 GMT
via mobile
Post by cogload on Feb 11, 2018 0:12:51 GMT
UKIP waaaay too high.
Its 41/42. 3 chords and the truth.
|
|
carlton43
Non-Aligned
Posts: 48,387
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 11, 2018 1:22:32 GMT
I think LD may be a shade low and that UKIP is probably about right, at present. We see, feel and acknowledge the chaos and collapse of UKIP. We note the lack of candidates, the loss of members, the disintegration of the party structure and the dismay of those active and formerly active. The casual voter does not. He has his reasons for being a Kipper and they are still fully valid for him. The UKIP officers, politicians, activists and members are continually fraying away at a frightening rate; but the casual voters go up and down in occasional large step changes.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Opinium
Feb 11, 2018 8:51:41 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Feb 11, 2018 8:51:41 GMT
This is very true. Never have voters been enthused by a party that doesnt exist. The question is what do they do when UKIP dont stand. Survation asked a follow up question 'if UKIP aren't standing who will you vote for'.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,540
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 11, 2018 10:49:04 GMT
And what was the response to that?
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Feb 11, 2018 10:57:47 GMT
I think LD may be a shade low and that UKIP is probably about right, at present. We see, feel and acknowledge the chaos and collapse of UKIP. We note the lack of candidates, the loss of members, the disintegration of the party structure and the dismay of those active and formerly active. The casual voter does not. He has his reasons for being a Kipper and they are still fully valid for him. The UKIP officers, politicians, activists and members are continually fraying away at a frightening rate; but the casual voters go up and down in occasional large step changes. Not sure I buy that. Apart from opinion polls the other evidence is where UKIP stands in local by-elections in areas where they were previously very strong, and my impression (admittedly haven't been interested enough to do an in depth examination) is that the results have been every bit as poor as one might expect. Even if the hypothetical Casual Voter behaved as you say, he would have to find a candidate to vote for. If you are right about step changes, I would say your "large step change" will come at the GE with UKIP then close to zero, and what use is an opinion poll if it can't see that coming?
|
|
carlton43
Non-Aligned
Posts: 48,387
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 11, 2018 12:54:58 GMT
I think LD may be a shade low and that UKIP is probably about right, at present. We see, feel and acknowledge the chaos and collapse of UKIP. We note the lack of candidates, the loss of members, the disintegration of the party structure and the dismay of those active and formerly active. The casual voter does not. He has his reasons for being a Kipper and they are still fully valid for him. The UKIP officers, politicians, activists and members are continually fraying away at a frightening rate; but the casual voters go up and down in occasional large step changes. Not sure I buy that. Apart from opinion polls the other evidence is where UKIP stands in local by-elections in areas where they were previously very strong, and my impression (admittedly haven't been interested enough to do an in depth examination) is that the results have been every bit as poor as one might expect. Even if the hypothetical Casual Voter behaved as you say, he would have to find a candidate to vote for. If you are right about step changes, I would say your "large step change" will come at the GE with UKIP then close to zero, and what use is an opinion poll if it can't see that coming? Ah!! The good old 'Opinion Polls As predictor' theory gets an airing? Opinion Polls are an historic snapshot of a sampling event and nothing more. That event has possible errors in small sample size, poor sample structure, ineffective modelling and then the massive imponderables of 'adjustments' or what I call tinkering about to 'achieve certain ends'! Polls serve a purpose if sensibly based and well structured, and then taken together with all others over a period to try and deduce a trend that has some meaning. For my part, the febrile nature of contemporary politics means they have little value as I even doubt the veracity of many responses given in the churn of the average person's mind. I have been polled and i always answer Labour and always have, so as to distort and to keep my side on its toes.
|
|
|
Post by yellowperil on Feb 11, 2018 13:38:13 GMT
Polls serve a purpose if sensibly based and well structured, and then taken together with all others over a period to try and deduce a trend that has some meaning. For my part, the febrile nature of contemporary politics means they have little value as I even doubt the veracity of many responses given in the churn of the average person's mind. I have been polled and i always answer Labour and always have, so as to distort and to keep my side on its toes. I am all in favour of your side trying to deceive the pollsters - if enough of you would do it perhaps your lot with pack up in despair
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,540
|
Post by The Bishop on Feb 11, 2018 13:45:04 GMT
Opinion Polls are an historic snapshot of a sampling event and nothing more. That event has possible errors in small sample size, poor sample structure, ineffective modelling and then the massive imponderables of 'adjustments' or what I call tinkering about to 'achieve certain ends'! Part of the problem with polling in recent years is that they have tried - in many cases - to become quasi-predictions.
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,984
|
Post by maxque on Feb 11, 2018 13:50:16 GMT
Opinion Polls are an historic snapshot of a sampling event and nothing more. That event has possible errors in small sample size, poor sample structure, ineffective modelling and then the massive imponderables of 'adjustments' or what I call tinkering about to 'achieve certain ends'! Part of the problem with polling in recent years is that they have tried - in many cases - to become quasi-predictions. The issue is than it's what their customers want (the companies that commissions the polls).
|
|
carlton43
Non-Aligned
Posts: 48,387
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Feb 11, 2018 13:56:32 GMT
Polls serve a purpose if sensibly based and well structured, and then taken together with all others over a period to try and deduce a trend that has some meaning. For my part, the febrile nature of contemporary politics means they have little value as I even doubt the veracity of many responses given in the churn of the average person's mind. I have been polled and i always answer Labour and always have, so as to distort and to keep my side on its toes. I am all in favour of your side trying to deceive the pollsters - if enough of you would do it perhaps your lot with pack up in despair I don't think that it will become a trend in the Blues YP! I don't think that sensible activists place anything like as much faith or even interest in polls in the current climate.
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Mar 17, 2018 17:44:34 GMT
Opinium/Observer:
CON 42 (=) LAB 40 (+1) LD 6 (-1) UKIP 4 (-1) SNP 4 (=)
|
|
Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,117
|
Post by Jack on Apr 14, 2018 20:44:39 GMT
|
|
|
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Apr 14, 2018 20:47:00 GMT
A 2nd, 40-40 within a couple of days.
|
|
Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,117
|
Post by Jack on Apr 14, 2018 20:47:53 GMT
A 2nd, 40-40 within a couple of days. Who will be the first to get Advantage?
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on May 19, 2018 20:07:04 GMT
|
|