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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 22, 2017 21:05:20 GMT
Opinium is rubbish. (even when it puts us 4% up!)
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iain
Lib Dem
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Opinium
Apr 29, 2017 16:22:02 GMT
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Post by iain on Apr 29, 2017 16:22:02 GMT
Con - 47% (+2) Lab - 30% (+4) LD - 8% (-3) UKIP - 7% (-2)
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 29, 2017 16:29:44 GMT
Hmm. Another poll showing a swing to Labour, and Corbyn's Labour matching Miliband.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Opinium
Apr 29, 2017 16:33:29 GMT
via mobile
Post by iain on Apr 29, 2017 16:33:29 GMT
The poll has basically returned the Lib Dems and Labour to the positions Opinium has been showing them for ages. The last poll was the outlier in this regard.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
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Post by Vibe on Apr 29, 2017 17:02:45 GMT
Hmm. Another poll showing a swing to Labour, and Corbyn's Labour matching Miliband. Plenty of recent polls have been showing the Conservatives 20-23 points ahead. I would take polls with a pinch of salt, the GE campaign hasn't even kicked off yet. We also don't know if they have correctly adjusted their models since getting it wrong 2 years ago.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2017 17:10:41 GMT
Hmm. Another poll showing a swing to Labour, and Corbyn's Labour matching Miliband. I suspect the election announcement has motivated some Labour supporters unhappy with the Corbyn leadership to cling back to daddy. If Labour can't be pushed below 30% with Corbyn as leader, then its hard to imagine circumstances where they could be. However, the 17% lead is still much larger than before the election announcement, as is the Conservative rating. I'm not sure the Lib Dems are quite as low as 8%.
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on Apr 29, 2017 17:16:35 GMT
Lib Dems aren't gaining much traction so far. I think most people just want to get on with Brexit and make the best of it.
I can't see Labour polling 30%. That would be higher than Brown in 2010 and Foot in 1983 and the party is clearly in a worse state now than then. And if Labour we're getting 30% it would imply the party is doing better in England now than they were in 2010, due to support in Scotland having collapsed. I just don't think that's the case.
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Post by justin124 on Apr 29, 2017 17:19:44 GMT
Hmm. Another poll showing a swing to Labour, and Corbyn's Labour matching Miliband. Not quite. Labour polled 31.2% under Miliband in 2015.
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Post by marksenior on Apr 29, 2017 17:24:02 GMT
Opinium have changed their methodology for this and future polls so giving changes from the previous poll are meaningless . They have introduced past vote weighting .
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 29, 2017 17:36:37 GMT
Opinium are...
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Post by brianj on Apr 30, 2017 3:44:29 GMT
Looking at the internals, the main reason for the LibDem dropoff is that Opinium saw a much lower share of their supporters as 10/10 to vote this week, falling from 80% (slightly above the big two) to 65% (fifteen points behind the big two).
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,660
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 30, 2017 9:09:09 GMT
......still better than ComedyResults?
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 30, 2017 9:52:43 GMT
Looking at the internals, the main reason for the LibDem dropoff is that Opinium saw a much lower share of their supporters as 10/10 to vote this week, falling from 80% (slightly above the big two) to 65% (fifteen points behind the big two). Thankyou for spotting that. I wonder why they changed so radically? This issue of likelihood to vote seems to be the single biggest problem for pollsters. The broad trend of Con 1st Lab 2nd LD 3rd UKIP 4th seems consistent and plausible and too strong to be affected by methodology. Likelihood to vote seems to me trickier to assess and also more changeable through campaigning than basic VI. I think the (over?) enthusiasm of LD activists is down to reasonably positive doorstep response, leading me to query Opinium's approach, but that may be wishful thinking on my part. It is a shame the discussion sections of UKPR has gone so downhill, this is exactly the sort of thing that used to be discussed intelligently on there, and maybe still is, but I struggle to wade through the inchoate mass of partisan discussion to find the nuggets of psephology. Anthony Wells' own stuff is still excellent of course.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2017 17:32:13 GMT
Fieldwork was three to four days ago:
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Opinium
May 6, 2017 18:47:26 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 6, 2017 18:47:26 GMT
That Green score is appalling.
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Tom
Unionist
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Post by Tom on May 13, 2017 16:28:11 GMT
I just can't see Labour polling above 30% myself.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
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Post by Vibe on May 13, 2017 16:28:27 GMT
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 47% (+1) LAB: 32% (+2) LDEM: 8% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-2) GRN: 2% (-)
(via @opiniumresearch / 09 - 12 May)
Another poll has Labour up vs 2015.
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Deleted
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Opinium
May 13, 2017 16:35:42 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 16:35:42 GMT
Westminster voting intention: CON: 47% (+1) LAB: 32% (+2) LDEM: 8% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-2) GRN: 2% (-) (via @opiniumresearch / 09 - 12 May) Another poll has Labour up vs 2015. I have to say that im sceptical of the 31 and 32s. Where are there new votes coming from? Then again, don't understand how we could be any higher than we are now.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
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Post by Vibe on May 13, 2017 17:06:59 GMT
Westminster voting intention: CON: 47% (+1) LAB: 32% (+2) LDEM: 8% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-2) GRN: 2% (-) (via @opiniumresearch / 09 - 12 May) Another poll has Labour up vs 2015. 3 polls now have Labour up
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 13, 2017 17:17:26 GMT
On these figures it would be the second election in a row that we'll have gained votes while suffering a net loss of seats.
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