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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 20, 2017 16:22:57 GMT
Latest Poll, 16/17 May - little change!
Con 46 (-) Lab 33 (+1) LD 8 (-) UKIP 5 (-) Green 2 (-)
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Post by curiousliberal on May 20, 2017 16:41:20 GMT
Latest Poll, 16/17 May - little change! Con 46 (-) Lab 33 (+1) LD 8 (-) UKIP 5 (-) Green 2 (-) I'm not surprised there's little change - the polling would have been conducted prior to the Tory manifesto launch. We're much more likely to see changes after knowledge of its details have set in with the general public.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 20, 2017 16:48:39 GMT
Westminster voting intention: CON: 47% (+1) LAB: 32% (+2) LDEM: 8% (-1) UKIP: 5% (-2) GRN: 2% (-) (via @opiniumresearch / 09 - 12 May) Another poll has Labour up vs 2015. I have to say that im sceptical of the 31 and 32s. Where are there new votes coming from? The Greens are getting murdered. That vote must be going to Labour.
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myth11
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too busy at work!
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Post by myth11 on May 20, 2017 17:05:11 GMT
I have to say that im sceptical of the 31 and 32s. Where are there new votes coming from? The Greens are getting murdered. That vote must be going to Labour. red kippers are starting to flow back partly due to lack of ukip cans plus they like the left wing take back ownership stuff.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 20, 2017 17:51:03 GMT
The Greens are getting murdered. That vote must be going to Labour. red kippers are starting to flow back partly due to lack of ukip cans plus they like the left wing take back ownership stuff. I've no idea if this is true - the mindsets of UKIP and Labour voters are not my special subject - but this hypothesis does have the merit of fitting the observable data (i.e. the polls) rather than just discounting them. More subjectively, I don't think any of the parties are running good campaigns and Labour's is in some ways a lot better than I'd expected. It is punctuated by extraordinary blunders but Corbyn himself is, I think, making a decent enough pitch to the sort of people who haven't already deserted Labour - the Corbynites are getting what they wanted and the gritted-teeth Labour loyalists have no reason to give up now. If we (LDs) had made a really good pitch to Labour the red vote might have collapsed, but we haven't. Further, the idea that all the red kippers would go blue is certainly not implausible but it can't be regarded as a certainty.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 20, 2017 17:56:55 GMT
Of course the Conservatives haven;t really started going for Corbyn yet
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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Post by The Bishop on May 20, 2017 23:12:42 GMT
Latest Poll, 16/17 May - little change! Con 46 (-) Lab 33 (+1) LD 8 (-) UKIP 5 (-) Green 2 (-) I think the Tories are actually down a point in this one?
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Post by thirdchill on May 20, 2017 23:54:41 GMT
More subjectively, I don't think any of the parties are running good campaigns and Labour's is in some ways a lot better than I'd expected. It is punctuated by extraordinary blunders but Corbyn himself is, I think, making a decent enough pitch to the sort of people who haven't already deserted Labour - the Corbynites are getting what they wanted and the gritted-teeth Labour loyalists have no reason to give up now. By and large Corbyn is having a relatively reasonable campaign (i.e. not terrible). The leaking of the manifesto actually benefited them, although there's plenty of people who love free stuff if someone else pays for it, which basically sums up their manifesto. It's good politics for them but they better hope that all it does is simply make sure the conservative majority isn't excssive rather than them getting into government and actually implementing all of this stuff (or trying to). The ideal scenario for labour and corbyn in reality is keeping the conservative majority at the level it is now.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 27, 2017 17:13:35 GMT
Con 45% (-1) Lab 35% (+2) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 5% (nc)
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Deleted
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Opinium
May 27, 2017 17:23:24 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2017 17:23:24 GMT
Con 45% (-1) Lab 35% (+2) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 5% (nc) Funny isnt it, sort of bad for us but 45 is still phenomenonly high. Shows what a mess LD and UKIP are in. I thpught we should be getting 46 to 48, so given the recent palava 45 is understandable. I just dont understand why the liberals are doing quite so badly compared to labour. Given the recent headlines id expect Lab at 30, LD at 11, but the liberals are melting away seemingly without reason.
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Tom
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Post by Tom on May 27, 2017 17:55:34 GMT
Tory campaign has been terrible. But if they do poll 45% on polling day that would be a phenomenal achievement, would be higher than Blair and Thatcher ever got.
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Tom
Unionist
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Post by Tom on May 27, 2017 17:56:24 GMT
Con 45% (-1) Lab 35% (+2) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 5% (nc) Funny isnt it, sort of bad for us but 45 is still phenomenonly high. Shows what a mess LD and UKIP are in. I thpught we should be getting 46 to 48, so given the recent palava 45 is understandable. I just dont understand why the liberals are doing quite so badly compared to labour. Given the recent headlines id expect Lab at 30, LD at 11, but the liberals are melting away seemingly without reason. I agree the Lib Dems have completely melted away, I really do think them wining 10 seats or under is plausible.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2017 18:12:42 GMT
Like most pollsters, Opinium are still weighting the Tories upwards "because 2015".
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Tom
Unionist
Posts: 1,998
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Post by Tom on May 27, 2017 18:17:43 GMT
Like most pollsters, Opinium are still weighting the Tories upwards "because 2015". And why not? The point about non voters is that they are non voters. If that changes in this election than pollsters should change their methodology, but not before.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2017 18:18:45 GMT
Well, they could be right to do so of course - we will soon find out. But 2015 was an unusual GE in a few respects.
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 27, 2017 18:25:50 GMT
Con 45% (-1) Lab 35% (+2) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 5% (nc) Funny isnt it, sort of bad for us but 45 is still phenomenonly high. Shows what a mess LD and UKIP are in. I thpught we should be getting 46 to 48, so given the recent palava 45 is understandable. I just dont understand why the liberals are doing quite so badly compared to labour. Given the recent headlines id expect Lab at 30, LD at 11, but the liberals are melting away seemingly without reason. I think we have failed to set out a clear position. Apart from "trying to reverse Brexit" (niche) and "cannabis" (even more niche) has any LD proposal achieved any significant public attention. A penny on IT for Health & Social Care should have been our centrepiece. It isn't.
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Tom
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Post by Tom on May 27, 2017 18:34:03 GMT
Well, they could be right to do so of course - we will soon find out. But 2015 was an unusual GE in a few respects. Every General Election is unusual in its own way, at least 2015 ran the full term.
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Deleted
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Opinium
May 27, 2017 18:34:34 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2017 18:34:34 GMT
Funny isnt it, sort of bad for us but 45 is still phenomenonly high. Shows what a mess LD and UKIP are in. I thpught we should be getting 46 to 48, so given the recent palava 45 is understandable. I just dont understand why the liberals are doing quite so badly compared to labour. Given the recent headlines id expect Lab at 30, LD at 11, but the liberals are melting away seemingly without reason. I think we have failed to set out a clear position. Apart from "trying to reverse Brexit" (niche) and "cannabis" (even more niche) has any LD proposal achieved any significant public attention. A penny on IT for Health & Social Care should have been our centrepiece. It isn't. Surely not the tories and not Corbyn should get you more than 7%.
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Post by mrpastelito on May 27, 2017 18:38:15 GMT
I think we have failed to set out a clear position. Apart from "trying to reverse Brexit" (niche) and "cannabis" (even more niche) has any LD proposal achieved any significant public attention. A penny on IT for Health & Social Care should have been our centrepiece. It isn't. Surely not the tories and not Corbyn should get you more than 7%. LD figures are completely irrelevant. They're vaguely competitive in about 50 seats or so at best, and all that matters is how well they do in those seats. The rest might just be lots of deposits lost.
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Tom
Unionist
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Post by Tom on May 27, 2017 19:13:48 GMT
Surely not the tories and not Corbyn should get you more than 7%. LD figures are completely irrelevant. They're vaguely competitive in about 50 seats or so at best, and all that matters is how well they do in those seats. The rest might just be lots of deposits lost. Not true. That was the line they were spinning in 2015 and it turned out to be bullshit. Parties can defy the national picture to some extent, but not that much.
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