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Post by lancastrian on Apr 15, 2017 20:51:32 GMT
Opinium's website still says they changed their methodology in February 2015. So does that mean they didn't change it after the election, in which case, unlike the other pollsters, they haven't skewed them towards the Conservatives to 'fix' the election mishap?
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 15, 2017 21:01:44 GMT
Opinium is rubbish. ComRes is rubbish. Who pays these people?
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Apr 15, 2017 21:07:18 GMT
"My party is low in this poll. This poll is rubbish!"
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Post by marksenior on Apr 15, 2017 21:12:16 GMT
"My party is low in this poll. This poll is rubbish!" Any poll that has UKIP higher than at the last GE has clearly got a major problem . It is patently obvious that they are losing members , councillors , MEPS and voters at almost every election at a massive rate .
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 15, 2017 21:18:27 GMT
Opinium's website still says they changed their methodology in February 2015. So does that mean they didn't change it after the election, in which case, unlike the other pollsters, they haven't skewed them towards the Conservatives to 'fix' the election mishap? Which may actually be a point in their favour (especially since some pollsters seem to think the problem then was "shy Tories" - even though this is largely a myth)
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 15, 2017 21:18:44 GMT
ComRes may well be a bit out but anyone can see this is complete rubbish for all four parties. One would have thought they would have been too embarrassed to offer it out?
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 15, 2017 21:32:43 GMT
ComRes may well be a bit out but anyone can see this is complete rubbish for all four parties. One would have thought they would have been too embarrassed to offer it out? Wouldn't that be an example of "herding"?
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 15, 2017 23:02:47 GMT
ComRes may well be a bit out but anyone can see this is complete rubbish for all four parties. One would have thought they would have been too embarrassed to offer it out? Wouldn't that be an example of "herding"? No. It would be an example of not publishing. If all polls continued to sample and then failed to publish because they did not like the results......That would be herding.
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 16, 2017 13:49:30 GMT
Does Opinium still do their polls for the Observer? Nothing I can find in today's paper about it.
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Post by marksenior on Apr 22, 2017 16:29:29 GMT
New Opinium poll out
Con 45 Lab 26 LDem 11 UKIP 9
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Apr 22, 2017 16:29:53 GMT
Latest Opinium for the Observer has: Conservatives - 45% (+7) Labour - 26% (-3) Lib Dem - 11% (+4) UKIP - 9% (-5) According to this article on the Guardian website.
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Post by BossMan on Apr 22, 2017 16:32:14 GMT
I think they may have finally changed their methodology.
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 22, 2017 16:33:54 GMT
I think they may have finally changed their methodology. If so, about time! If not, bodes well for us. I await a poll from a serious company.
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Post by marksenior on Apr 22, 2017 16:36:45 GMT
I think they may have finally changed their methodology. I think they do not want to carry on looking silly and are just copying other pollsters
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 22, 2017 16:41:42 GMT
The opinium website does not seem to mention any methodology change.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Apr 22, 2017 16:44:11 GMT
The opinium website does not seem to mention any methodology change. Neither does the Guardian writeup, which compares directly to last week's numbers. Whether you trust that as an indication of the methodology being consistent is, I suppose, debatable.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 22, 2017 17:38:39 GMT
roflmao; slightly too blatant at the herding.
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 22, 2017 18:30:45 GMT
I think they may have finally changed their methodology. I think they do not want to carry on looking silly and are just copying other pollsters They will look extremely silly if the gap between Conservative and Labour ends up being 10 points smaller than the polls suggest.
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hedgehog
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Post by hedgehog on Apr 22, 2017 19:21:17 GMT
I think they do not want to carry on looking silly and are just copying other pollsters They will look extremely silly if the gap between Conservative and Labour ends up being 10 points smaller than the polls suggest. Isn't an opinion poll a snapshot of opinion at a set moment of time, opinion will naturally change on a day to day basis.
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Post by lancastrian on Apr 22, 2017 20:30:42 GMT
They will look extremely silly if the gap between Conservative and Labour ends up being 10 points smaller than the polls suggest. Isn't an opinion poll a snapshot of opinion at a set moment of time, opinion will naturally change on a day to day basis. I meant if, say, the last opinium poll before the election shows a 20 point lead and it's actually 10, they would have called the election much better without the methodology change (assuming there is one, but I don't believe the Lib Dems and UKIP have just swapped places like that without it). Everyone else would probably be wrong as well, but they committed to the new methodology after the error in 2015, whereas Opinium just chickened out/herded now. (apologies to them if this isn't methodology change)
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