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ICM
Nov 27, 2017 23:57:59 GMT
Post by finsobruce on Nov 27, 2017 23:57:59 GMT
UKIP on 5% doesn't seem very likely to reflect what would actually happen at an election. They only got 1.9% last time and didn't contest 42% of the seats. In order to get 5% they'd probably have to contest virtually all the seats and that seems unlikely at this stage. slightly misleading slack water.....
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ICM
Nov 30, 2017 15:47:31 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Nov 30, 2017 15:47:31 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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ICM
Nov 30, 2017 16:09:07 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 30, 2017 16:09:07 GMT
But ukip didnt stand in a number of seats
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ICM
Nov 30, 2017 16:50:54 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Nov 30, 2017 16:50:54 GMT
But ukip didnt stand in a number of seats Yes, it may be that the only significant movement in the polls since the elections, which appears to be a small swing from Tory to UKIP, wouldn't actually materialise for the reason you highlight.
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ICM
Nov 30, 2017 18:58:17 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 30, 2017 18:58:17 GMT
All this "slack water"is starting to make me twitchy. Obviously it is especially crap for my party but looking at the bigger picture it suggests that the lack of any decisive majority for anything would continue even if there was another GE. What a bloody mess. (Incidentally I note Owen Jones getting twitchy about lack of movement in the polls too, with some justification I'd have thought.)
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ICM
Dec 2, 2017 19:48:10 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Dec 2, 2017 19:48:10 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,327
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 2, 2017 19:57:35 GMT
We're literally only a few months into the new Parliament. Eat the book again. Eat it. Eat it. Eat it.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 2, 2017 20:04:05 GMT
Leading Labour activist threatens to forcefeed book to distinguished academic
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ICM
Dec 3, 2017 3:52:40 GMT
Post by tamar on Dec 3, 2017 3:52:40 GMT
We're literally only a few months into the new Parliament. Eat the book again. Eat it. Eat it. Eat it. Oh no, we're only leading by... er, basically the same amount we were leading by at this stage in the 1992-97 parliament.
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ICM
Dec 3, 2017 9:12:37 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Dec 3, 2017 9:12:37 GMT
Leading Labour activist threatens to forcefeed book to distinguished academic 'Activist'
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,681
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ICM
Dec 3, 2017 10:36:02 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Dec 3, 2017 10:36:02 GMT
Its one of our little running jokes, M'Lud.
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ICM
Dec 4, 2017 16:08:35 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Dec 4, 2017 16:08:35 GMT
It often takes a year or so for polls to move much after a General Election. Though the current circumstances are not exactly typical.
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ICM
Dec 4, 2017 17:41:11 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Dec 4, 2017 17:41:11 GMT
ICM / Guardian:
LAB 41 (=) CON 40 (-1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 4 (-1) GRN 3 (=) SNP 3 (=)
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ICM
Dec 4, 2017 17:59:07 GMT
via mobile
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 4, 2017 17:59:07 GMT
ICM / Guardian: LAB 41 (=) CON 40 (-1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 4 (-1) GRN 3 (=) SNP 3 (=) This feels about right when it comes to where the 2 main parties are now
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ICM
Dec 4, 2017 18:03:48 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Dec 4, 2017 18:03:48 GMT
ICM / Guardian: LAB 41 (=) CON 40 (-1) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 4 (-1) GRN 3 (=) SNP 3 (=) This feels about right when it comes to where the 2 main parties are now 41% is of course precisely what Labour got at the general election. It looks like not much has changed except a slight drop in the Tory share going to the minor parties.
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will
Non-Aligned
Posts: 211
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ICM
Dec 5, 2017 6:45:16 GMT
Post by will on Dec 5, 2017 6:45:16 GMT
Yawn. Forget the polls, Brexit, Corbyn, or anything but this: the economic record of the Conservative government has more holes in it than Swiss cheese. Labour will demolish it in a general election campaign. Keep calm and carry on.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,681
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ICM
Dec 5, 2017 11:34:07 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Dec 5, 2017 11:34:07 GMT
That was posted hours before the latest Survation poll was released - I've seen better timing Btw the latest ICM breaks a run of six successive ties I think, can't remember anything like that in polling before (even with YouGov's late lamented "daily tracker")
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ICM
Dec 12, 2017 12:28:27 GMT
Post by archaeologist on Dec 12, 2017 12:28:27 GMT
The latest from ICM.
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ICM
Dec 12, 2017 14:11:56 GMT
via mobile
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 12, 2017 14:11:56 GMT
It's happening IT'S HAPPENING
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,681
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 12, 2017 14:41:12 GMT
What has "happened" is a minuscule shift in your favour immediately after acres of uncritical media hype.
To put it into past context, the first YouGov after May's much heralded Brexit speech at the start of the year showed a 3 point swing from Labour to Tory (when, of course, your party was already well ahead) Or to go a bit further back, polls immediately after Dave's EU "veto" in late 2011 showed a 3-4 point Tory gain.
What this actually confirms is that public opinion is basically stuck on Con40/Lab40/Oth20, as it has been since the GE (though the exact proportions will vary)
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