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ICM
Sept 12, 2017 17:30:32 GMT
Post by jigger on Sept 12, 2017 17:30:32 GMT
But polls before the General election consistently overestimated UKIP - even those which removed the option of voting UKIP from respondents who lived in a constituency with no UKIP candidate - and I've seen no evidence that any (at least intentional) effort has been made to correct this overestimation. Obviously it doesn't really matter as UKIP are an irrelevant minor party - much more important is pollsters understanding why they underestimated support for the Labour Party - but I thought it was worth pointing it out. Do you really think it is likely that UKIP have doubled their support from the General election with no leader? Of course, it is possible that they have managed to do that but it would be very surprising. I accept your point about UKIP not standing candidates in every seat, but given how disastrously they performed even in seats where they did stand I don't think them standing in every seat would have made much difference - certainly not enough to get them to 4% in the popular vote. The point about UKIP missing nearly half the seats is not quite enough to account for a doubling of the UKIP vote since the GE, but it's not that far off it. Especially if the figures are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point. I'd say that effect on its own is enough to put them above 3%, assuming that their level of support hasn't significantly changed. I'm not sure that it would be. Remember that many (though I accept not all) of the seats that UKIP didn't stand in were constituencies where UKIP got a derisory support in 2015.
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ICM
Sept 12, 2017 18:07:26 GMT
jigger likes this
Post by Ben Walker on Sept 12, 2017 18:07:26 GMT
Fwiw, the average share of the UKIP 2015 vote in the seats they stood in this time round was 15.01%, slightly above their GB avg. share in the seats they stood in 2015: 13.10%
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ICM
Sept 12, 2017 21:28:40 GMT
Post by greenchristian on Sept 12, 2017 21:28:40 GMT
The point about UKIP missing nearly half the seats is not quite enough to account for a doubling of the UKIP vote since the GE, but it's not that far off it. Especially if the figures are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point. I'd say that effect on its own is enough to put them above 3%, assuming that their level of support hasn't significantly changed. I'm not sure that it would be. Remember that many (though I accept not all) of the seats that UKIP didn't stand in were constituencies where UKIP got a derisory support in 2015. And so were some of the seats they did stand in. If we assume that the average UKIP vote in said constituencies would have been about two thirds of the average vote in constituencies they did stand, we get a UK figure just under 3%, or a GB figure of a little bit more than that. So no, a UKIP polling figure of 4% does not mean that their support has doubled since the GE. Add in house effects and sample variation and a figure of 4% isn't necessarily a statistically significant change from the GE.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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ICM
Sept 25, 2017 21:57:36 GMT
jigger likes this
Post by thetop on Sept 25, 2017 21:57:36 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 9, 2017 17:03:16 GMT
Con 41% (+1) Lab 41% (-1) LD 7% (-1) UKIP 4% (nc)
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ICM
Oct 24, 2017 14:52:08 GMT
Post by jigger on Oct 24, 2017 14:52:08 GMT
New poll: Conservative Party: 42% Labour Party: 42% Liberal Democrat: 7% UKIP: 3% Green Party: 2%
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ICM
Oct 24, 2017 15:31:17 GMT
jigger likes this
Post by carlton43 on Oct 24, 2017 15:31:17 GMT
Possible 84% binary. Like it. Looking forward to 90%+.
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ICM
Oct 24, 2017 15:53:46 GMT
Post by jigger on Oct 24, 2017 15:53:46 GMT
Possible 84% binary. Like it. Looking forward to 90%+.It's only a matter of time - I give it 6 months.
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ICM
Oct 24, 2017 17:07:19 GMT
jigger likes this
Post by greenchristian on Oct 24, 2017 17:07:19 GMT
Possible 84% binary. Like it. Looking forward to 90%+. jigger appears to have taken over your account.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,167
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ICM
Oct 24, 2017 17:23:34 GMT
Post by Jack on Oct 24, 2017 17:23:34 GMT
Possible 84% binary. Like it. Looking forward to 90%+. jigger appears to have taken over your account. He's getting jiggy with it.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,371
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ICM
Oct 24, 2017 18:40:49 GMT
Post by Sibboleth on Oct 24, 2017 18:40:49 GMT
Is this joke firm still in operation?
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Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 13:28:52 GMT
New poll (27 October-1 November): Labour Party: 40% Conservative Party: 38% Liberal Democrat: 9% UKIP: 4% Green: 4%
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ICM
Nov 3, 2017 13:54:42 GMT
Post by froome on Nov 3, 2017 13:54:42 GMT
Possible 84% binary. Like it. Looking forward to 90%+.It's only a matter of time - I give it 6 months. Or maybe not.
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ICM
Nov 3, 2017 14:08:36 GMT
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 3, 2017 14:08:36 GMT
New poll (27 October-1 November): Labour Party: 40% Conservative Party: 38% Liberal Democrat: 9% UKIP: 4% Green: 4% I suspect that the net effects of this Westminster sex scandal will be zero (polling wise) on the 2 main parties when all is said and done.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,813
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ICM
Nov 3, 2017 14:12:27 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Nov 3, 2017 14:12:27 GMT
New poll (27 October-1 November): Labour Party: 40% Conservative Party: 38% Liberal Democrat: 9% UKIP: 4% Green: 4% Isn't this actually the latest Ipsos-MORI poll?
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ICM
Nov 3, 2017 14:14:04 GMT
Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 14:14:04 GMT
New poll (27 October-1 November): Labour Party: 40% Conservative Party: 38% Liberal Democrat: 9% UKIP: 4% Green: 4% Isn't this actually the latest Ipsos-MORI poll? Yes it is - sorry about that - entirely my fault. Can a mod move the post into the correct thread?
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ICM
Nov 15, 2017 12:25:17 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Nov 15, 2017 12:25:17 GMT
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,167
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ICM
Nov 27, 2017 16:45:42 GMT
Post by Jack on Nov 27, 2017 16:45:42 GMT
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ICM
Nov 27, 2017 19:18:30 GMT
Post by finsobruce on Nov 27, 2017 19:18:30 GMT
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ICM
Nov 27, 2017 23:50:48 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Nov 27, 2017 23:50:48 GMT
UKIP on 5% doesn't seem very likely to reflect what would actually happen at an election. They only got 1.9% last time and didn't contest 42% of the seats. In order to get 5% they'd probably have to contest virtually all the seats and that seems unlikely at this stage.
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