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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 21, 2017 21:28:30 GMT
I used the calculator. I didn't create it. You entered the figures incorrectly then - it's clear that there is a swing from Labour to all other parties so they cannot gain seats on any UNS calculation
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Nov 21, 2017 23:37:57 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 22, 2017 3:30:29 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 22, 2017 9:01:59 GMT
Apropos of this, I thought this was an interesting quote (within Behr's op-ed piece in today's Guardian): I think the big question is "likelihood to vote" and right now I'd expect those opting for Labour to be more inclined to do so than those opting for the Conservatives - it is possible that Conservative internal polling is making some gloomy assumptions on the latter point and it is possible that they know what they are talking about since it is about accurately assessing the mood of their own voters rather than a big difference in the raw data (which would be suspect). 12 points seems a hell of a gap though. Also Labour need to be wary of waning enthusiasm in their own ranks - not that I'm detecting any, more that it is a hard thing to sustain.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 9:04:47 GMT
Not sure how the snp gain 4 seats when they are down in the poll
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 22, 2017 9:14:56 GMT
Are the swing calculators people are using still calibrated to the 2015 results, rather than the 2017 ones? That's the only explanation for the bizarre seat results that I can think of.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 22, 2017 9:19:09 GMT
Not sure how the snp gain 4 seats when they are down in the poll They are down 1% in the poll but the Conservatives are down 2% and Labour down 3%. Therefore there is a swing of 0.5% from Conservative to SNP (which would see Stirling fall) and a swing of 1% from Lab to SNP (which would see four seats change hands). They would however lose Fife NE to the Lib Dems hence a net gain of four Of course if they are down 1% from 3% to 2% nationally then they are losing a third of their vote so gains would be unlikely on that basis, but this is not how swing is calculated
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 22, 2017 11:06:38 GMT
Not only does this survey apparently suggest a ridiculously low youth poll, but its headline figures are based on an overall turnout of just 60% - 9 points down on the GE.
And any pollster still not using a 2017 turnout model can basically get in the sea.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 22, 2017 11:30:58 GMT
Well, despite the hype another GE in the near future seems unlikely.
And of course what goes up can come down, but there is no reason to think the underlying factors behind the rise in youth turnout are going away any time soon.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 11:34:07 GMT
Most people thought 2017 would see a drop in turnout being the 3rd national vote in 3 years
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Nov 22, 2017 11:39:23 GMT
Is it time to pull out that Jeff Stelling quotation?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 22, 2017 12:23:49 GMT
Is it time to pull out that Jeff Stelling quotation? Go on, then......
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 22, 2017 12:33:03 GMT
Polls picking up in our favour, leading to a small but stable majority in the next election
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 22, 2017 12:35:52 GMT
Not only does this survey apparently suggest a ridiculously low youth poll, but its headline figures are based on an overall turnout of just 60% - 9 points down on the GE. And any pollster still not using a 2017 turnout model can basically get in the sea. It's perfectly possible that another snap election could see a sharp drop in turnout; there may well be a degree of 'election fatigue' with so many important votes having taken place over the last few years. As for the big increase in youth turnout in 2017, it remains to be seen whether that is the start of a trend, or just a short term bubble inflated by social media. How exactly you think we can create a positive environment when you remain so unremittingly negative. Still, you want us to lose anyway.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 12:39:45 GMT
I think you mean picking this poll in your favour. No one likes people to are selective about polls mate
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 22, 2017 12:41:26 GMT
It's perfectly possible that another snap election could see a sharp drop in turnout; there may well be a degree of 'election fatigue' with so many important votes having taken place over the last few years. As for the big increase in youth turnout in 2017, it remains to be seen whether that is the start of a trend, or just a short term bubble inflated by social media. How exactly you think we can create a positive environment when you remain so unremittingly negative. Still, you want us to lose anyway. You have to accept that many people in your party don't like or want corbynism. This is proof that your internal divisions are at least as bad if not worse than ours.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 22, 2017 12:42:36 GMT
I think you mean picking this poll in your favour. No one likes people to are selective about polls mate I shall await future polls which shall confirm my suspicions.
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Post by ccoleman on Nov 22, 2017 13:56:34 GMT
Perhaps most importantly, this poll assumes a turnout rate of 19% for 18-24 year olds. That is absolute rubbish - and I have no idea how they came to that figure when turnout for that age group has never been anywhere near that low in any general election.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 22, 2017 14:00:34 GMT
Perhaps most importantly, this poll assumes a turnout rate of 19% for 18-24 year olds. That is absolute rubbish - and I have no idea how they came to that figure when turnout for that age group has never been anywhere near that low in any general election. Polls have a number of biases that can affect both sides. The best way to analyse this is by looking at the net effect of those biases.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 22, 2017 14:18:09 GMT
Not sure how the snp gain 4 seats when they are down in the poll Because Labour are down more? (I think the calculator struggles with the current Scottish circumstances.)
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