Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2017 20:57:14 GMT
will be interesting to see if these recent polls showing a creeping movement from Can to Lab are outliers, just reflecting the Labour end of MoE or if there really is a hint of the Big Mo? All the polls post-manifestos have shown a decent move to Labour which makes me think it's real. Of course it could stall or reverse and if security continues to dominate the news (as it will at least for a few days) that can change the dynamic. Poll mostly pre Manchester. Lets wait and see
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,306
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Post by Tony Otim on May 25, 2017 21:01:57 GMT
I'd guess this is a case of delayed publication of a poll from before the Manchester attack that they've then sat on for a few days. Their last poll came out the following day to the fieldwork, this one is a few days later.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on May 25, 2017 22:16:27 GMT
will be interesting to see if these recent polls showing a creeping movement from Can to Lab are outliers, just reflecting the Labour end of MoE or if there really is a hint of the Big Mo? Can't see how a trend reflected by most if not all pollsters since the manifesto release can be classed as outliers or MoE. They're still showing Labour behind, remember. It's just Labour are no longer getting crushed now we've moved away from personality onto policy.
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Post by manchesterman on May 25, 2017 23:19:57 GMT
I agree but I would like to see another week or polls showing Labour trailing by single-digit figures (or better) before I am convinced there's a sea change
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,715
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Post by iain on May 31, 2017 14:40:45 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2017 14:47:38 GMT
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,123
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Post by Jack on May 31, 2017 14:49:34 GMT
#LibDemFightback
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Post by Andrew_S on May 31, 2017 15:16:26 GMT
I've always thought the LDs would get at least 12% and possibly as much as 14% when the votes are counted.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,077
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Post by cogload on May 31, 2017 19:29:55 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,579
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on May 31, 2017 21:54:51 GMT
Some methodology changes for this one apparently (though not as radical as Panelbase)
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on Jun 2, 2017 1:33:31 GMT
When did they become Kantar? Who are they?
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,985
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Post by maxque on Jun 2, 2017 20:16:48 GMT
When did they become Kantar? Who are they? 2009, when WPP bought them. WPP is an FSTE 100 company.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,123
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Post by Jack on Jun 7, 2017 20:09:59 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,077
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Post by cogload on Jun 7, 2017 20:12:59 GMT
Booo! Not the new gold standard.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,123
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Post by Jack on Nov 21, 2017 16:33:19 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 21, 2017 18:18:18 GMT
A basic swing calculator gives Tory 313 Lab 300 LD 11 Slack water
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Post by No Offence Alan on Nov 21, 2017 19:15:33 GMT
A basic swing calculator gives Tory 313 Lab 300 LD 11 Slack water How do the LDs lose a seat when they are up, and Con, Lab and SNP all down?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 21, 2017 19:20:01 GMT
A basic swing calculator gives Tory 313 Lab 300 LD 11 Slack water How can that be? Labour are down more than any other party so how are they gaining seats? On those swings they would lose about 15 seats to the Conservatives and 3 to the SNP and Hallam. The Conservatives would lose a couple of seats to the Lib Dems as well but would probably have a majority fwiw
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 21, 2017 21:12:37 GMT
I used the calculator.
I didn't create it.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 21, 2017 21:19:50 GMT
Electoral Calculus gives a perhaps more credible:
Tory 326 +8 Lab 246 -16 LD 17 +5 SNP 39 +4
We would wave goodbye to Emma Dent Coad, Jared O'Mara, Zac Goldsmith and Gloria de Piero.
And my own MP.
Perhaps not so slack.
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