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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 22, 2017 14:19:42 GMT
I used the calculator. I didn't create it. You entered the figures incorrectly then - it's clear that there is a swing from Labour to all other parties so they cannot gain seats on any UNS calculation No. I think (for some bizarre reason) the calculator's starting point was 2015. Or possibly even 2010!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 14:24:05 GMT
And if they dont i will laugh at your arrogance
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 22, 2017 14:27:16 GMT
And if they dont i will laugh at your arrogance Can't win without arrogance.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,483
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 22, 2017 14:31:47 GMT
But you can certainly lose with an excess of it.....
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 22, 2017 14:45:49 GMT
It's perfectly possible that another snap election could see a sharp drop in turnout; there may well be a degree of 'election fatigue' with so many important votes having taken place over the last few years. As for the big increase in youth turnout in 2017, it remains to be seen whether that is the start of a trend, or just a short term bubble inflated by social media. How exactly you think we can create a positive environment when you remain so unremittingly negative. Still, you want us to lose anyway. This seems like a very odd post to pick this particular fight over. Trident is simply pointing out that it is possible that turnout could drop and that it's too soon to know whether the increased youth turnout in 2017 is here to stay or was just a one-off. It reads to me like a simple statement of the uncertainty around elections. This poll indicates that in the event of a new election Labour is vulnerable if it can't turn out the people who don't normally turn out. Obviously this might well change with events (and a massive event is currently scheduled for 2019...) but right now, pointing that out should be seen by those on your side as an encouragement not to slack off, rather than as gloomy negativity.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 22, 2017 14:49:24 GMT
How exactly you think we can create a positive environment when you remain so unremittingly negative. Still, you want us to lose anyway. This seems like a very odd post to pick this particular fight over. Trident is simply pointing out that it is possible that turnout could drop and that it's too soon to know whether the increased youth turnout in 2017 is here to stay or was just a one-off. It reads to me like a simple statement of the uncertainty around elections. This poll indicates that in the event of a new election Labour is vulnerable if it can't turn out the people who don't normally turn out. Obviously this might well change with events (and a massive event is currently scheduled for 2019...) but right now, pointing that out should be seen by those on your side as an encouragement not to slack off, rather than as gloomy negativity. Its something most of us are very aware of, but coming from @trident , it has to be read in the context of past contributions.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,022
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Post by cogload on Nov 22, 2017 14:59:02 GMT
Its pish. Ignore it.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 15:00:35 GMT
You can if a 25% poll lead turns into a 2% one
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Post by ccoleman on Nov 22, 2017 16:41:12 GMT
How exactly you think we can create a positive environment when you remain so unremittingly negative. Still, you want us to lose anyway. This seems like a very odd post to pick this particular fight over. Trident is simply pointing out that it is possible that turnout could drop and that it's too soon to know whether the increased youth turnout in 2017 is here to stay or was just a one-off. It reads to me like a simple statement of the uncertainty around elections. This poll indicates that in the event of a new election Labour is vulnerable if it can't turn out the people who don't normally turn out. Obviously this might well change with events (and a massive event is currently scheduled for 2019...) but right now, pointing that out should be seen by those on your side as an encouragement not to slack off, rather than as gloomy negativity. Whether youth turnout falls or not isn't the issue per se, but the notion that it would fall to 19% is so utterly ludicrous that it isn't even worth serious consideration.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 17:14:22 GMT
It very difficult to understand how they reached that number. TNS use a mixture of 2015 turnout model and self identified turnout. In theory this should be more accurate as the the 2015 turnout model was too low and the self identified turnout model too high. The only possible way I can think they reached this number is an incredibly low number of 18-25 respondents saying they were certain to turnout. Less than 1/10 18-25 year olds must have said they were certain to vote.
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Nov 23, 2017 16:33:44 GMT
Can't see it being Labour's voters being hit by fatigue if there were another election.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 23, 2017 17:00:58 GMT
How exactly you think we can create a positive environment when you remain so unremittingly negative. Still, you want us to lose anyway. Yet another aggressive-defensive response from you to a perfectly reasonable point..... When you post something positive which indicates that you want a Labour victory and Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister, then I may think differently!
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 10, 2018 13:56:27 GMT
"Europe Elects β @europeelects 1h1 hour ago
GB, Kantar poll:
CON-ECR: 40% (-4) LAB-S&D: 38% (-3) LDEM-ALDE: 9% (+1) SNP-G/EFA: 4% (+1) UKIP-EFDD: 3% (+1) Greens-G/EFA: 3% (+1)
+/- vs. #GE2017 in GB
Field work: 5/07/18 β 9/07/18 Sample size: 1,086 2 replies 10 retweets 8 likes"
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 17, 2018 19:06:14 GMT
The latest Kantar poll is out.
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Post by BucksDucks on Sept 19, 2018 15:43:19 GMT
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Post by archaeologist on Oct 21, 2018 19:18:56 GMT
Another Kantar poll -
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 21, 2018 19:37:02 GMT
Given all that's going on this really isn't very good for Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is it?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2018 20:17:38 GMT
Given all that's going on this really isn't very good for Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is it? changes are wrong
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Oct 21, 2018 20:44:56 GMT
Given all that's going on this really isn't very good for Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is it? Is rather better than the 24% Labour were at a month before the 2017 election. π
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,108
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Post by Jack on Oct 21, 2018 21:16:21 GMT
Given all that's going on this really isn't very good for Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is it? Is rather better than the 24% Labour were at a month before the 2017 election. π Being five points behind in a poll when you're against the government we have currently is really nothing to celebrate. In more normal times, Labour would probably be around ten points ahead right now. At least.
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