johng
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Post by johng on Sept 25, 2019 11:47:35 GMT
That's a real possibility.
The majority of people get their news from TV news headlines and few other sources.
Many people aren't as focused on Brexit as the right-wing political elite in this country.
Though, for those who do follow politics closely, I think that many of their positions are just too entrenched at the moment. If you are a brexiteer then is a court-led coup, and if you're a remainer, it's Boris being found guilty of a heinous crime.
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 25, 2019 13:02:11 GMT
Plus it is just possible that despite almost universal media sneering, Labour's position on Brexit is both understood by many voters and not actually that unpopular? Opinium asked a lot of questions about this in their latest poll if you have the energy to go through all the tables. Quick summary (from memory): 1) Labour's position on Brexit is understood better by Lib Dem and Tory voters than by Labour voters (lots of DK there)
2) Significant numbers of Labour voters think their policy is to Revoke, even more to leave with no deal
3) Delay + referendum is favoured by about the same % of current Labour voters as Revoke (about 35% each as I recall)
4) Revoke is a good deal more popular among 2017 Labour voters than among current Labour voters (presumably because of the 25% plus of Labour voters who are now Lib Dem voters) 5) most voters think Labour policy is not clear.
This was all before the Labour conference
Edit, I just posted a few figures in the Opinium thread
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 25, 2019 13:15:11 GMT
Plus it is just possible that despite almost universal media sneering, Labour's position on Brexit is both understood by many voters and not actually that unpopular? What position? Have I missed something?
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 25, 2019 13:52:08 GMT
Plus it is just possible that despite almost universal media sneering, Labour's position on Brexit is both understood by many voters and not actually that unpopular? What position? Have I missed something? More positions than the Kama Sutra, I believe I heard.
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 25, 2019 14:07:00 GMT
Plus it is just possible that despite almost universal media sneering, Labour's position on Brexit is both understood by many voters and not actually that unpopular? Opinium asked a lot of questions about this in their latest poll if you have the energy to go through all the tables. Quick summary (from memory): 1) Labour's position on Brexit is understood better by Lib Dem and Tory voters than by Labour voters (lots of DK there)
2) Significant numbers of Labour voters think their policy is to Revoke, even more to leave with no deal
3) Delay + referendum is favoured by about the same % of current Labour voters as Revoke (about 35% each as I recall)
4) Revoke is a good deal more popular among 2017 Labour voters than among current Labour voters (presumably because of the 25% plus of Labour voters who are now Lib Dem voters) 5) most voters think Labour policy is not clear. This was all before the Labour conference
Edit, I just posted a few figures in the Opinium thread
All very well but if we are being forced into No Deal or Revoke as the only options, how is this likely to bring any sort of sense of coming together? Maybe we are past that.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 25, 2019 14:39:39 GMT
Before the news blew up there was definitely some positive reception to some of policies in what was a policy packed conference. Some of my non political friends from school had shared some of these policies on Facebook. Tge Green New Deal might resonate as I've spoken to voters who dont think anyone will tackle climate change. I think the party made the right decision to ditch any announcements after the news blew up.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 7, 2019 22:07:54 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2019 6:39:14 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 8, 2019 6:49:29 GMT
If you download the tabs Comres list a bunch of recent polls but not that one with Lab amd Con level.
Stalinist rewriting of history or just a duff poll?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 8, 2019 10:57:32 GMT
I wouldn't worry too much, its ComRes
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2019 22:09:07 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 11, 2019 22:12:22 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2019 22:21:49 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 11, 2019 23:33:30 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 12, 2019 9:47:08 GMT
Thats not a 5 point lead
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 12, 2019 10:03:27 GMT
It certainly can be. The Conservatives might be 32.7% and Labour 27.4%. That’s 5% to the nearest percentage. You never quote percentage points in surveys because the margin of error is much greater than 1%. Inappropriate accuracy is one of the frequent sins committed by the innumerate.
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Post by justin124 on Oct 12, 2019 10:19:59 GMT
It certainly can be. The Conservatives might be 32.7% and Labour 27.4%. That’s 5% to the nearest percentage. You never quote percentage points in surveys because the margin of error is much greater than 1%. Inappropriate accuracy is one of the frequent sins committed by the innumerate. In the 1960s and 1970s some pollsters did publish their findings to the nearest decimal point. Final polls for the 1964 election by Gallup and NOP showed Labour leads of 4.5% and 3.1% respectively. Six days before the 1970 election NOP caused shockwaves by giving Labour a 12.4% lead - its final eve of poll survey being a Labour lead of 4.1%. I believe Gallup continued to show party vote shares to the nearest 0.5% until it discontinued UK political polling.
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 13, 2019 14:30:52 GMT
If I remember right, the (in)famous poll (I think NOP) before the Bermondsey by-election showed Simon Hughes in second place (over O'Grady) as a result of going to one decimal point. That was crucial in helping the Liberals to squeeze O'Grady and the Tories. (No doubt someone will have some exact information to tell me I am correct or not!)
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 15, 2019 19:52:30 GMT
Indeed. But that poll was crucial in squeezing O'Grady (not a pleasant thought but there we are).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2019 9:40:16 GMT
Comres have produced a large poll for ITN:
Con 29 Lab 27 LDem 14 Brxt 12 SNP 3
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