iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Sept 9, 2019 20:32:04 GMT
I think I've mucked this up again. Anyway, point is that I think Mike is quite right about the LD --> UKIP vote in 2015. I think we underestimated how much of our vote was a "sod the lot of you" vote, and therefore in 2015 voted UKIP because we were no longer the political party that seemed least like a political party. That was now UKIP. So I wouldn't be surprised if a substantial % of the 2015 UKIP vote was former LDs, odd though that sounds in a way. But that seems unlikely to be true in 2019 / 2020 / whenever, as opposition to brexit has maybe given the prospective LD vote more coherence.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 9, 2019 20:50:40 GMT
I think I've mucked this up again. Anyway, point is that I think Mike is quite right about the LD --> UKIP vote in 2015. I think we underestimated how much of our vote was a "sod the lot of you" vote, and therefore in 2015 voted UKIP because we were no longer the political party that seemed least like a political party. That was now UKIP. So I wouldn't be surprised if a substantial % of the 2015 UKIP vote was former LDs, odd though that sounds in a way. But that seems unlikely to be true in 2019 / 2020 / whenever, as opposition to brexit has maybe given the prospective LD vote more coherence. I'm surprised the Lib Dems were not aware of this or that it came as a surprise. This was certainly apparent to me as a UKIP candidate in an area where there was strong Lib Dem support and where plenty of my votes (and my most ardent activists as it happens) were coming from that source. But it was apparent far earlier. I have related the tale before that in 2004, two Lib Dem councillors of my acquiantance (in another Hertfordshire town) voted UKIP in the European election - in one case that was on the same day as one of them was standing for the council. The mainstay of their local support was the council estates from which they both hailed themselves and neither they nor their voters were in any way interested in national Lib Dem policy positions. One of these in fact indeed admitted to me that they were slightly undecided in the European election over whether to vote for UKIP or the BNP!
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iang
Lib Dem
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Post by iang on Sept 9, 2019 21:17:49 GMT
I didn't say we were unaware of this, or that it was a surprise, but I think we did - quite significantly - underestimate it. And of course the coalition meant we were compromised, and unable to play the "outside the political establishment" card that we had been able to in previous elections. I am though somewhat horrified by the BNP seeming like a plausible choice!
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 9, 2019 21:28:01 GMT
I think I've mucked this up again. Anyway, point is that I think Mike is quite right about the LD --> UKIP vote in 2015. I think we underestimated how much of our vote was a "sod the lot of you" vote, and therefore in 2015 voted UKIP because we were no longer the political party that seemed least like a political party. That was now UKIP. So I wouldn't be surprised if a substantial % of the 2015 UKIP vote was former LDs, odd though that sounds in a way. But that seems unlikely to be true in 2019 / 2020 / whenever, as opposition to brexit has maybe given the prospective LD vote more coherence. I'm surprised the Lib Dems were not aware of this or that it came as a surprise. This was certainly apparent to me as a UKIP candidate in an area where there was strong Lib Dem support and where plenty of my votes (and my most ardent activists as it happens) were coming from that source. But it was apparent far earlier. I have related the tale before that in 2004, two Lib Dem councillors of my acquiantance (in another Hertfordshire town) voted UKIP in the European election - in one case that was on the same day as one of them was standing for the council. The mainstay of their local support was the council estates from which they both hailed themselves and neither they nor their voters were in any way interested in national Lib Dem policy positions. One of these in fact indeed admitted to me that they were slightly undecided in the European election over whether to vote for UKIP or the BNP! I agree, plenty of UKIP votes used to be Lib Dem. At the moment those voters will stick with Brexit supporting Parties. However more traditional remain-voting Tories are switching to Lib Dem now credibility has been restored to pre 2010 levels. That is what is going on in this poll. I would see that as a strong point for Wollaston, for example, but it is hard to judge how strong.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2019 22:08:18 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 10, 2019 23:26:05 GMT
Polls are all over the place - anything from a 14% Tory lead to neck and neck within a couple of weeks!
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 11, 2019 12:13:28 GMT
Polls are all over the place - anything from a 14% Tory lead to neck and neck within a couple of weeks! A couple of days, actually
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 11, 2019 17:25:18 GMT
a day is a long time in politics
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 14, 2019 21:59:15 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 14, 2019 22:20:44 GMT
This would give (acc to Electoral Calc) CON 260 LAB 272 LD 53 SNP 43 PC 3 GRN 1 NI 18 Tories get more votes but fewer seats than Labour - FPTP eh?
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Post by andrewp on Sept 14, 2019 22:26:17 GMT
This would give (acc to Electoral Calc) CON 260 LAB 272 LD 53 SNP 43 PC 3 GRN 1 NI 18 Tories get more votes but fewer seats than Labour - FPTP eh? 2 polls tonight- one would give the Conservatives a majority of 122, the other a hung parliament and probably a Lab/ SNP/ PC/ Green administration!
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 14, 2019 23:11:32 GMT
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
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Post by Vibe on Sept 15, 2019 8:15:07 GMT
This would give (acc to Electoral Calc) CON 260 LAB 272 LD 53 SNP 43 PC 3 GRN 1 NI 18 Tories get more votes but fewer seats than Labour - FPTP eh? 2 polls tonight- one would give the Conservatives a majority of 122, the other a hung parliament and probably a Lab/ SNP/ PC/ Green administration! They are proving clueless again
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Post by justin124 on Sept 22, 2019 19:54:31 GMT
CON: 29% (+1) LAB: 27% (-) LDEM: 21% (+1) BREX: 13% (-) GRN: 5% (-)
via @comres, 18 - 19 Sep
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 23, 2019 12:22:21 GMT
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on Sept 23, 2019 12:25:43 GMT
Interesting, but subject to the usual caveats about hypothetical polls.
EDIT ... and also perhaps overtaken by events at the Labour conference.
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Post by agbutler on Sept 25, 2019 7:39:32 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 25, 2019 10:40:28 GMT
Plus it is just possible that despite almost universal media sneering, Labour's position on Brexit is both understood by many voters and not actually that unpopular?
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middyman
Conservative
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Post by middyman on Sept 25, 2019 10:51:25 GMT
Plus it is just possible that despite almost universal media sneering, Labour's position on Brexit is both understood by many voters and not actually that unpopular? You may be right but what does not appear to have been the subject of comment is that the sort of deal proposed by Corbyn i.e. to all intents and purposes staying in the Customs Union and Single Market inc freedom of movement will be characterised as Brino meaning that the second referendum will be a choice between Remain and Brino, i.e. neither is really Leave.
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Sept 25, 2019 11:05:48 GMT
Plus it is just possible that despite almost universal media sneering, Labour's position on Brexit is both understood by many voters and not actually that unpopular? Or perhaps, as much more likely, most people haven't paid attention and have instead only noticed the news about Boris breaking the law?
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