Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2019 12:30:05 GMT
I trust MRP and this poll seems relatively close to the MRP one
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on May 21, 2019 17:04:54 GMT
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on May 21, 2019 17:14:25 GMT
Interesting as the fieldwork was completed when most people would be sending in their postal votes which will make up a good chunk of electors.
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
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Post by polupolu on May 21, 2019 20:13:08 GMT
Has this only just been published?
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on May 21, 2019 20:17:27 GMT
Has this only just been published? Yes - it was used to update the remain united tactical voting advice this morning, but the tables themselves were only publishwd this afternoon.
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on May 21, 2019 20:22:40 GMT
That second MRP dataset is telling. Labour becoming officially pro-remain would increase their vote share to 38%. This election should be the trigger for Labour officially endorsing remaining in the EU, but I have my doubts.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 21, 2019 20:28:44 GMT
Fieldwork four days old. And I mentally add two points to whatever they give us anyway , call this their 'house effect'. I'd be surprised if this were close to the final result.
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Post by tonygreaves on May 21, 2019 21:26:11 GMT
Me too. But no doubt there will be a flood of polls tomorrow which may all say something different from this. And may all say something different to each other! If I were the Tories now I would be in despair. If I were Labour now I would be very very worried. As I am neither I will just take a detached ironic air to whatever goes on and turn up at the count Sunday to observe the votes with amused interest. (Or perhaps interested amusement).
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 21, 2019 21:47:47 GMT
Me too. But no doubt there will be a flood of polls tomorrow which may all say something different from this. And may all say something different to each other! If I were the Tories now I would be in despair. If I were Labour now I would be very very worried. As I am neither I will just take a detached ironic air to whatever goes on and turn up at the count Sunday to observe the votes with amused interest. (Or perhaps interested amusement). Or perhaps disappointment ... (We are Liberals after all)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 21, 2019 22:02:36 GMT
I believe MRP over traditional polling
There's no point being worried. In the local elections we put out 6 leaflets. 4 in the long campaign, 2 in the short. We canvassed every day. And we lost. We've not put the same effort in and we may lose again. It may be worse. But what would getting sick with worry do?
I've come to the conclusion sometimes you can do as little or as much as you possible and the result is still the same. After the coalition im sure many Lib Dems felt the same way. I'm still going to campaign but I won't be lying awake at night worried. What will be will be.
I remember 2009 was my first stint on a polling station. Things weren't great then. Stuck with it though. Even if some didn't.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 21, 2019 22:17:55 GMT
I believe MRP over traditional polling There's no point being worried. In the local elections we put out 6 leaflets. 4 in the long campaign, 2 in the short. We canvassed every day. And we lost. We've not put the same effort in and we may lose again. It may be worse. But what would getting sick with worry do? I've come to the conclusion sometimes you can do as little or as much as you possible and the result is still the same. After the coalition im sure many Lib Dems felt the same way. I'm still going to campaign but I won't be lying awake at night worried. What will be will be. I remember 2009 was my first stint on a polling station. Things weren't great then. Stuck with it though. Even if some didn't. Very sensible. If you're screwed you're screwed and no amount of leaflets pretending otherwise will make any odds. It was virtually impossible for Labour to have a position while still in talks with the government and now it's too late. There will be better battlegrounds to fight on.
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Post by carlton43 on May 22, 2019 9:24:07 GMT
I believe MRP over traditional polling There's no point being worried. In the local elections we put out 6 leaflets. 4 in the long campaign, 2 in the short. We canvassed every day. And we lost. We've not put the same effort in and we may lose again. It may be worse. But what would getting sick with worry do? I've come to the conclusion sometimes you can do as little or as much as you possible and the result is still the same. After the coalition im sure many Lib Dems felt the same way. I'm still going to campaign but I won't be lying awake at night worried. What will be will be. I remember 2009 was my first stint on a polling station. Things weren't great then. Stuck with it though. Even if some didn't. Sound pragmatic thinking POD. These are odd and febrile times and demand a flexible and long view. When the fog of war surrounds and nothing makes sense, it is as well to hold what one can and to preserve what one may and to take as few risks as possible until that fog clears a bit. When matters are calm and normal in an area where there is a chance of a win, then the better the candidate, campaign and ground effort, usually the better the result. But when all is a roller-coaster of unleashed emotions and a band-wagon of excitement, just sit tight and hope for better days. I think some of us rather hope for stability and boring normality. But then, I am a Conservative!
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clyde1998
SNP
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Post by clyde1998 on May 22, 2019 18:24:03 GMT
The seats the MRP projection gives are: Brx - 28 Lab - 20/21 Lib - 10/11 Con - 6 SNP - 3 Grn - 1 Plaid - 1
For a bit of fun, if you were to group Brexit+UKIP and Lib+Green+CUK, you'd get: Lve - 26 (-2 on headline) Rem - 19 (+7/8) Lab - 17 (-3/4) Con - 4 (-2) SNP - 3 Plaid - 1
Add the SNP+Plaid to the remain grouping too: Lve - 25 (-3 on headline) Rem - 24 (+8/9) Lab - 17 (-3/4) Con - 4 (-2)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2019 21:12:29 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2019 21:13:28 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 11, 2019 21:19:59 GMT
Things more reliable than a combination of 'ComRes' and 'Electoral Calculus' - everything.
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Jun 11, 2019 21:33:37 GMT
Utter garbage. Not a chance in hell that Electoral Calculus can remotely deal with this sort of scenario. Not a chance in hell hypothetical polling of who might be leader means much either.
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carolus
Lib Dem
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Post by carolus on Jun 11, 2019 21:34:32 GMT
The real poll:
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mondialito
Labour
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Post by mondialito on Jun 11, 2019 21:42:41 GMT
Things more reliable than a combination of 'ComRes' and 'Electoral Calculus' - everything. Printed in The Borisgraph, as if it wasn't enough of a joke.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 11, 2019 21:45:32 GMT
Things more reliable than a combination of 'ComRes' and 'Electoral Calculus' - everything. Printed in The Borisgraph, as if it wasn't enough of a joke. All in all this ought to snap any remaining credibility that ComRes has. It's pretty clear what they are.
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