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Post by justin124 on May 12, 2019 10:10:36 GMT
One thing I thought about recently is that based on the median age of people in the UK, the majority of Brits alive today will probably have no memory of the 1970s. The median age is 40.2 and a 40 year old in 2019 was born in 1978 or 1979. In another 20 years most people won’t remember the 20th century at all. The passage of time is indeed scary. Everyone should remember this post when the Tories run on the Winter of Discontent next election. I always wondered why Callaghan failed to make the Munich Agreement a big issue at the 1979 election.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 12, 2019 10:15:27 GMT
Everyone should remember this post when the Tories run on the Winter of Discontent next election. I always wondered why Callaghan failed to make the Munich Agreement a big issue at the 1979 election. You joke about that, but at the 1983 election Michael Foot cited Lord Hailsham's pro-Munich candidature in the 1938 Oxford byelection in a speech as an argument against the Conservative government in which Hailsham was Lord Chancellor.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 12, 2019 10:51:46 GMT
But that was a professional seat projection was made using an MRP model though. ‘Some guy off the internet’ is rather less convincing. I'm a guy off the internet. Can I have a go?
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Post by yellowperil on May 12, 2019 11:05:57 GMT
Everyone should remember this post when the Tories run on the Winter of Discontent next election. I always wondered why Callaghan failed to make the Munich Agreement a big issue at the 1979 election. Nobody left here who remembers the 1930s, not even me, even though I am the only one alive in the 30s.
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Post by justin124 on May 12, 2019 11:07:58 GMT
I always wondered why Callaghan failed to make the Munich Agreement a big issue at the 1979 election. Nobody left here who remembers the 1930s, not even me, even though I am the only one alive in the 30s. Indeed - but in 1979 there were still many people who would have remembered the late 1930s.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 12, 2019 11:08:28 GMT
I always wondered why Callaghan failed to make the Munich Agreement a big issue at the 1979 election. You joke about that, but at the 1983 election Michael Foot cited Lord Hailsham's pro-Munich candidature in the 1938 Oxford byelection in a speech as an argument against the Conservative government in which Hailsham was Lord Chancellor. In forty years' time opposition politicians will be bringing up a controversial tweet that some government minister of the day made when they were still in nappies.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2019 13:47:18 GMT
Some interesting results from this poll about voting intention with various Tory leaders.
Boris Johnson: Labour 27 Tories 26 Lib Dem 14 Brexit 10
Dominic Raab: Labour 27 Tories 23 Lib Dem 13 Brexit 11
Amber Rudd: Labour 27 Tories 22 Lib Dem 14 Brexit 13
Obviously, these poll results don't mean much right now, although it is interesting that even with a well known Brexiteer leader like BoJo, the Brexit Party still takes a good chunk of the vote.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on May 12, 2019 13:48:30 GMT
You joke about that, but at the 1983 election Michael Foot cited Lord Hailsham's pro-Munich candidature in the 1938 Oxford byelection in a speech as an argument against the Conservative government in which Hailsham was Lord Chancellor. In forty years' time opposition politicians will be bringing up a controversial tweet that some government minister of the day made when they were still in nappies. Which will show how they're totally unfit to handle the pressing issue of the day - how to implement brexit😉
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 12, 2019 16:59:06 GMT
Some interesting results from this poll about voting intention with various Tory leaders. Boris Johnson: Labour 27 Tories 26 Lib Dem 14 Brexit 10 Dominic Raab: Labour 27 Tories 23 Lib Dem 13 Brexit 11 Amber Rudd: Labour 27 Tories 22 Lib Dem 14 Brexit 13 Obviously, these poll results don't mean much right now, although it is interesting that even with a well known Brexiteer leader like BoJo, the Brexit Party still takes a good chunk of the vote. But isn't hypothetical voting intention polling ("if the party was led by Satan would you be more/less inclined to support said party?") even less reliable than conventional polling ?
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Post by pragmaticidealist on May 12, 2019 18:12:33 GMT
It's tremendously amusing that a Michael Foot percentage of the vote is enough for a clear lead.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2019 18:18:10 GMT
Some interesting results from this poll about voting intention with various Tory leaders. Boris Johnson: Labour 27 Tories 26 Lib Dem 14 Brexit 10 Dominic Raab: Labour 27 Tories 23 Lib Dem 13 Brexit 11 Amber Rudd: Labour 27 Tories 22 Lib Dem 14 Brexit 13 Obviously, these poll results don't mean much right now, although it is interesting that even with a well known Brexiteer leader like BoJo, the Brexit Party still takes a good chunk of the vote. But isn't hypothetical voting intention polling ("if the party was led by Satan would you be more/less inclined to support said party?") even less reliable than conventional polling ? Yes.
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Post by finsobruce on May 12, 2019 18:32:21 GMT
I always wondered why Callaghan failed to make the Munich Agreement a big issue at the 1979 election. Nobody left here who remembers the 1930s, not even me, even though I am the only one alive in the 30s. I barely remember my 30s.....
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Post by finsobruce on May 12, 2019 18:33:28 GMT
But that was a professional seat projection was made using an MRP model though. ‘Some guy off the internet’ is rather less convincing. I'm a guy off the internet. Can I have a go? I'll nominate you. I'm sure we can find someone be a seconder.
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on May 12, 2019 20:34:29 GMT
Small sub samples, but interesting. Suggests the Lib Dems could win 2 seats in a couple of regions, with very split totals between other parties. Obvs these would be balanced out by poor totals in the midlands and north...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2019 21:28:36 GMT
Small sub samples, but interesting. Suggests the Lib Dems could win 2 seats in a couple of regions, with very split totals between other parties. Obvs these would be balanced out by poor totals in the midlands and north... is this the MRP or traditional poll
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Post by woollyliberal on May 15, 2019 7:56:37 GMT
New @comres European election poll for @telegraph
Brexit Party 27% (=) Lab 25%, (=) Con 15%, (+2) LD 13%, (-1) Grn 7% (-1) CHUK 6%, (=) UKIP 3%, (=) SNP 3%,
Fieldwork 10-12 May
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 15, 2019 8:12:48 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on May 15, 2019 8:53:43 GMT
New @comres European election poll for @telegraph Brexit Party 27% (=) Lab 25%, (=) Con 15%, (+2) LD 13%, (-1) Grn 7% (-1) CHUK 6%, (=) UKIP 3%, (=) SNP 3%, Fieldwork 10-12 May Nice to see a consistent poll for once. This looks close to what we are likely to see.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 15, 2019 9:24:38 GMT
ComRes usually give us about 2% less than the average across all pollsters. So 13 from them may not be too bad.
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Post by curiousliberal on May 15, 2019 12:02:00 GMT
It seems odd that we're polling level in the Euros and the GE, though.
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