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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 22, 2017 20:10:48 GMT
I mean its ComRes and they're a joke but urgh jesus. There's a delicious irony that it's for the Mirror.
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Tom
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Post by Tom on Apr 22, 2017 20:23:37 GMT
The Lib Dems might not win any seats off the Tories if this poll is true. Sometimes the national swing can be so big it overrides any localised factors (e.g Scotland 2015).
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 22, 2017 20:33:58 GMT
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 22, 2017 21:12:22 GMT
The story of this election is soon going to turn to Labour Crisis if these polls go on like this. That may shake things up quite a bit.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2017 21:15:36 GMT
The Lib Dems might not win any seats off the Tories if this poll is true. Sometimes the national swing can be so big it overrides any localised factors (e.g Scotland 2015). If this poll is true, ie a 12% increase in Con share then they won't lose seats to anyone. But I would be astonished if they really went so high on the day.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 22, 2017 21:23:54 GMT
It may be like the LibDem surge in 2010 (or the smaller movement to Labour in 2015 even) in which real enthusiasm was picked up as real support (when it wasn't). But it's hard to discuss this sort of thing rationally without sounding like someone in denial, which is a comment in itself.
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Tom
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Post by Tom on Apr 22, 2017 21:27:07 GMT
The Lib Dems might not win any seats off the Tories if this poll is true. Sometimes the national swing can be so big it overrides any localised factors (e.g Scotland 2015). If this poll is true, ie a 12% increase in Con share then they won't lose seats to anyone. But I would be astonished if they really went so high on the day. I agree they won't be that high, probably over 45% though. But I also can't see Labour being as high as 25%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2017 21:33:59 GMT
Labour ended up on 40.7% in 2001 after similarly massive poll leads (they were as much as 30 points ahead during the campaign).
But for me, the Copeland by-election result from just two months ago (a 6.7% swing) is evidence that perhaps the opinion polls really are close to the mark this time. New Labour should easily have been able to pick up Uxbridge, Beckenham and Eddisbury on the poll ratings they were getting during the 1997-2001 Parliament. I suppose it was the slump in turnout that prevented their overall majority increasing still further in 2001.
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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 22, 2017 21:53:41 GMT
Final Tory number will be around 40%. A little bird told me.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Apr 22, 2017 21:54:06 GMT
If you pick your mark between the two then the Tories on 45 is where we are at (take a bow Opinium). I think there is some vote piling in the safe seats which is an arse because it will mean the Blue team will be training their guns and phonebank in our direction.
Still. The next few weeks will be fascinating.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2017 22:26:46 GMT
Labour ended up on 40.7% in 2001 after similarly massive poll leads (they were as much as 30 points ahead during the campaign). But for me, the Copeland by-election result from just two months ago (a 6.7% swing) is evidence that perhaps the opinion polls really are close to the mark this time. New Labour should easily have been able to pick up Uxbridge, Beckenham and Eddisbury on the poll ratings they were getting during the 1997-2001 Parliament. I suppose it was the slump in turnout that prevented their overall majority increasing still further in 2001. But we are in government. Polls should be moving towards us.
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Post by akmd on Apr 22, 2017 22:46:16 GMT
Final Tory number will be around 40%. A little bird told me. This is my thinking as well. I am yet to be convinced that the Conservatives will manage 45% or more come polling day.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2017 22:55:17 GMT
Final Tory number will be around 40%. A little bird told me. This is my thinking as well. I am yet to be convinced that the Conservatives will manage 45% or more come polling day. I think we should manage more like 42 to 44, vs 27 or so for Labour. The UKIP collapse should disproportionately benefit us. Add on lab-Con swing voters and I'd be a bit disappointed to be as low as 40.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 22, 2017 23:03:20 GMT
I do think we should read a little more into the Copeland result in which there was a swing of 6.7% - which would translate to a 21% lead on UNS, though I realise the swings are likely to be varied. This is why I'm thinking the Con share is likely be about 43 (as opposed to 40 or above 45).
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 22, 2017 23:07:28 GMT
There was a specific local issue in Copeland though.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Apr 22, 2017 23:11:42 GMT
There was a specific local issue in Copeland though. His name is Corbyn.
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Post by akmd on Apr 23, 2017 8:29:36 GMT
This is my thinking as well. I am yet to be convinced that the Conservatives will manage 45% or more come polling day. I think we should manage more like 42 to 44, vs 27 or so for Labour. The UKIP collapse should disproportionately benefit us. Add on lab-Con swing voters and I'd be a bit disappointed to be as low as 40. I think Conservatives on 42 vs Labour on 27 or even Conservatives on 44 vs Labour on 26 is plausible. Certainly more than so than Conservatives on 50 vs Labour on 25.
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Tom
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Post by Tom on May 13, 2017 17:00:48 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 17:02:21 GMT
Bit of a reversion to the mean there. 50 points is just silly high.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2017 17:05:30 GMT
In the immediate aftermath of the election announcement, ComRes were showing Con 50, Lab 25; this is their first poll since then.
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