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Post by marksenior on May 13, 2017 18:14:13 GMT
The previous Comres had LDs at 11 so they are down 1 not down 2 . A bit depressing that a pollster whose trade is based on mathematics cannot subtract 10 from 11 correctly .
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Post by Formerly.... on May 14, 2017 13:08:19 GMT
I can't seem to find the tables and the link on the ComRes website isn't working but is that a rounding thing (ie previously 11.4, now 9.6 - which rounds out at 11 and 9 but down 1.8 which rounds up to 2)?
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on May 14, 2017 13:51:53 GMT
I can't seem to find the tables and the link on the ComRes website isn't working but is that a rounding thing (ie previously 11.4, now 9.6 - which rounds out at 11 and 9 but down 1.8 which rounds up to 2)? No, it's easier for some in the LD's to moan and blame the pollsters for their poor performance. Instead of looking into why they are in single figures again! despite Labour in turmoil. I do think people just want to move on from Brexit and not to keep hearing Farron's moaning. This country is in desperate need on Centerist party that can appeal to the whole country, who can take on the Conservatives.
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Post by carlton43 on May 14, 2017 16:06:52 GMT
If there is such an out-turn and a large Conservative majority, the whole political dynamic will start to change again in reaction to it. That was slow in the case of Blair, a bit quicker with the SNP. There will be a reaction and a trending towards the centre because of a perceived divergence of Labour Left and Conservatives Right. It is largely a matter of chance as to the 'when' the mood changes in enough of the public to start to fracture the Conservative position.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 27, 2017 17:12:10 GMT
Con 46% (-2) Lab 34% (+4) LD 8% (-2) UKIP 5% (-) SNP 4% (-) Grn 2% (-1)
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2017 17:22:04 GMT
Con 46% (-2) Lab 34% (+4) LD 8% (-2) UKIP 5% (-) SNP 4% (-) Grn 2% (-1) Less bad than I feared. I think weve hit the bottom now.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2017 17:26:06 GMT
10-12 point lead. I think we are about the last election (8-9%) now so are in for a loss of seats.
Which would be remarkable for all the wrong reasons.
10 point lead with 12 days to go (thank the maker) would see a majority of 80 or so?
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2017 17:28:36 GMT
I shall be watching with interest as to where the party leaders go in the next week.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2017 17:28:50 GMT
10-12 point lead. I think we are about the last election (8-9%) now so are in for a loss of seats. Which would be remarkable for all the wrong reasons. 10 point lead with 12 days to go (thank the maker) would see a majority of 80 or so? I think thats sensible. I dont quite understand why you campaign is failing so badly - youhave a message to sell. Still think Scotland will save you from losing seats though.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2017 17:36:09 GMT
Plenty of us have our thoughts on why the campaign is misfiring..I am sure that post election we will have our thread on here to discuss our opinions.
I do think that the Conservative Party will be on the end of a hammering in 2022. In what shape, or form, my party is in is another thing entirely.
I despise the Conservative position on Europe and am not socialist nor have any time for the Green's distinct brand of authoritarianism. I do clutch at a couple of straws in that I think the Scottish party will provide the next leaders (one interim and one more afterward) and the FDP survived a near death experience not too long ago.
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Tom
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Post by Tom on May 27, 2017 17:58:07 GMT
Plenty of us have our thoughts on why the campaign is misfiring..I am sure that post election we will have our thread on here to discuss our opinions. I do think that the Conservative Party will be on the end of a hammering in 2022. In what shape, or form, my party is in is another thing entirely. I despise the Conservative position on Europe and am not socialist nor have any time for the Green's distinct brand of authoritarianism. I do clutch at a couple of straws in that I think the Scottish party will provide the next leaders (one interim and one more afterward) and the FDP survived a near death experience not too long ago. I agree the Conservatives will likely get hammered in 2022. The public generally wearies of parties after about 10 years. 1992 was an aberration.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2017 18:05:30 GMT
The Tory honeymoon is going to be very very shortlived. The council elections next year could be very ugly.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2017 18:08:12 GMT
The Tory honeymoon is going to be very very shortlived. The council elections next year could be very ugly. Nah, even if Brexit is as unpleasant as you think it wouldnt be in time for 2018. Arent you making the risk of thinking that everyone views the world like you do?
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Tom
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Post by Tom on May 27, 2017 18:09:19 GMT
The Tory honeymoon is going to be very very shortlived. The council elections next year could be very ugly. If the Brexit talks start going badly it may well help the Tories actually. May vs the EU etc.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2017 18:11:22 GMT
ComRes always weight their findings "bigly" against Labour - apparently the original figures here show a Tory lead of less than 4 points.
The presumption of them - and other pollsters - is that turnout patterns this time will be the same as two years ago. But what if they aren't?
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2017 18:22:43 GMT
The Tory honeymoon is going to be very very shortlived. The council elections next year could be very ugly. Nah, even if Brexit is as unpleasant as you think it wouldnt be in time for 2018. Arent you making the risk of thinking that everyone views the world like you do? Nope. 60 bn quid and rising budget deficit, council cuts and tax rises to come in November. Brexit is the icing on the cake. The social fabric is crumbling (school classes getting bigger, running out of cash) with more to come next year. There will be a need to raise revenue. CGT on house sales perhaps, raiding FSP lump sums? This is a binary ge. And cleverly framed as such.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2017 18:24:02 GMT
ComRes always weight their findings "bigly" against Labour - apparently the original figures here show a Tory lead of less than 4 points. The presumption of them - and other pollsters - is that turnout patterns this time will be the same as two years ago. But what if they aren't? Have the data tables been published?
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2017 18:32:28 GMT
N.b SWMBO is trying to get a Steiner orientated Free School off the ground with others. It is (to her) a slow and frustrating process but the big issue is money. The pot is empty. And this in a city which is about to cut 10m from the schools budget for local LA schools and has had what can only be described as a "nipper explosion"...
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cogload
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Post by cogload on May 27, 2017 18:39:22 GMT
This is the key.
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Post by thirdchill on May 27, 2017 19:08:22 GMT
ComRes always weight their findings "bigly" against Labour - apparently the original figures here show a Tory lead of less than 4 points. The presumption of them - and other pollsters - is that turnout patterns this time will be the same as two years ago. But what if they aren't? They probably had to weight a fair bit. Their unweighted 2015 vote recall had more labour than conservative voters (2 more labour voters).
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