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Post by tonygreaves on Apr 24, 2020 21:10:30 GMT
Presumably the fact that is obvious to almost everyone that the position is shambolic and the Government remarkably incompetent is having some influence on what people think.
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polupolu
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Apr 25, 2020 9:09:26 GMT
Post by polupolu on Apr 25, 2020 9:09:26 GMT
Presumably the fact that is obvious to almost everyone that the position is shambolic and the Government remarkably incompetent is having some influence on what people think. It would be nice to think so. But clearly a sizeable minority are unswayed by what we are seeing, and still think the govenernment has handled "PPE" well.
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The Bishop
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Apr 25, 2020 9:20:10 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Apr 25, 2020 9:20:10 GMT
Its very rare not to get a sizeable minority of partisans rejecting the consensus, though.
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Deleted
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Apr 25, 2020 9:46:59 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 25, 2020 9:46:59 GMT
This is one area where government are struggling with public opinion and its hurt them a little. Its a supply and demand problem. The issue is it hasn't been addressed earlier
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May 1, 2020 18:53:16 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 18:53:16 GMT
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May 1, 2020 18:53:58 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 1, 2020 18:53:58 GMT
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May 7, 2020 9:29:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 7, 2020 9:29:12 GMT
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carlton43
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May 7, 2020 11:25:07 GMT
Post by carlton43 on May 7, 2020 11:25:07 GMT
Interesting. It is probably picking up on people like me that are rapidly moving away from the Government back towards Farage because of the Virus nonsense. My gut feeling is that this will suddenly grow to perhaps as much as 10% more if there is not a very significant relaxation this month.
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Post by syorkssocialist on May 7, 2020 12:22:47 GMT
I don't think polling right now is a waste of time, its still worth looking into what people think of the parties and how they would vote in a theoretical election. I still find the results very interesting. They should, however, be taken with a considerably larger grain of salt than usual.
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pl
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Post by pl on May 7, 2020 12:27:18 GMT
I don't think polling right now is a waste of time, its still worth looking into what people think of the parties and how they would vote in a theoretical election. I still find the results very interesting. They should, however, be taken with a considerably larger grain of salt than usual. The polls will be generally accurate as to how people would vote if there was an election today. But there isn't going to be any elections for quite some time, and today's polls don't take into account any future election campaign. Let's face it, some parties can have a good election campaign and swing the result somewhat - especially if one party is seen as being massively ahead.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on May 7, 2020 12:32:02 GMT
I don't think polling right now is a waste of time, its still worth looking into what people think of the parties and how they would vote in a theoretical election. I still find the results very interesting. They should, however, be taken with a considerably larger grain of salt than usual. The polls will be generally accurate as to how people would vote if there was an election today. But there isn't going to be any elections for quite some time, and today's polls don't take into account any future election campaign. Let's face it, some parties can have a good election campaign and swing the result somewhat - especially if one party is seen as being massively ahead. Additionally there’s no real politics happening; Parliament is basically dormant, none of the Parties are launching big policy initiatives, and, for reasons unfathomable to me, Johnson seems to be benefiting from a rally round the flag moment where he and his shambles of a government are actually thought to be doing/have done a good job managing the pandemic, and any criticism is treasonous.
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May 7, 2020 12:33:10 GMT
Post by pragmaticidealist on May 7, 2020 12:33:10 GMT
I don't think polling right now is a waste of time, its still worth looking into what people think of the parties and how they would vote in a theoretical election. I still find the results very interesting. They should, however, be taken with a considerably larger grain of salt than usual. The polls will be generally accurate as to how people would vote if there was an election today. But there isn't going to be any elections for quite some time, and today's polls don't take into account any future election campaign. Let's face it, some parties can have a good election campaign and swing the result somewhat - especially if one party is seen as being massively ahead. Campaigns rarely make a significant difference, including last year's (aside from a decline in third party support).
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pl
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May 7, 2020 12:35:17 GMT
Post by pl on May 7, 2020 12:35:17 GMT
The polls will be generally accurate as to how people would vote if there was an election today. But there isn't going to be any elections for quite some time, and today's polls don't take into account any future election campaign. Let's face it, some parties can have a good election campaign and swing the result somewhat - especially if one party is seen as being massively ahead. Campaigns rarely make a significant difference, including last year's (aside from a decline in third party support). There were big shifts in the polling during GE10 and GE17. The results at the end were massively different to what was expected at the start of the campaign.
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YouGov
May 7, 2020 13:42:12 GMT
Post by lackeroftalent on May 7, 2020 13:42:12 GMT
With the Lib Dems still struggling to get above 7-8% if and when do we see a poll with the Greens occupying the distant third place?
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May 7, 2020 14:34:56 GMT
Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on May 7, 2020 14:34:56 GMT
With the Lib Dems still struggling to get above 7-8% if and when do we see a poll with the Greens occupying the distant third place?
When you merge with the Lib Dems
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YouGov
May 7, 2020 14:47:22 GMT
Post by pragmaticidealist on May 7, 2020 14:47:22 GMT
Campaigns rarely make a significant difference, including last year's (aside from a decline in third party support). There were big shifts in the polling during GE10 and GE17. The results at the end were massively different to what was expected at the start of the campaign. The gap between Labour and the Tories in 2010, in both seats and the popular vote, wouldn't have been too surprising at the beginning of the campaign. The main effect of the campaign, I would argue, was to shore up the Lib Dem position (although post the first debate many expected a significant advance in their position). 2017 is, yes, an obvious exception.
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Post by Merseymike on May 7, 2020 15:44:58 GMT
With the Lib Dems still struggling to get above 7-8% if and when do we see a poll with the Greens occupying the distant third place? When you merge with the Lib Dems
That would be a major mistake - I don't think that the Greens are necessarily Liberals. They had something of an aliance of convenience last time, but that didn't help them at all - being seen as the radical wing of the LibDems wasn't a sensible move. They need to be prepared to work with others on specifics (like electoral reform) but a merger wouldn't work - there are Greens who want to retain a clear identity rather than see their cause be buried in a larger party
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YouGov
May 7, 2020 17:42:51 GMT
Post by greenchristian on May 7, 2020 17:42:51 GMT
Why not a progressive alliance of Labour, Lib Dems and Green? The Liberals have moved away from Civil Liberties and sit very closely with the Greens and Labour on social issues. Plus there is very little difference between the parties on economic policy. Only sticking point would be electoral reform, which Labour would refuse. I'm not convinced that's true. Even assuming the Lib Dem have something resembling a coherent economic policy at the moment, the three parties come from political traditions that approach economics with very different assumptions. And those traditions tend to lead to very different conclusions, even if occasionally the policy prescriptions happen to coincide.
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YouGov
May 7, 2020 18:33:33 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on May 7, 2020 18:33:33 GMT
Labour, in my view will have to accept proportional representation. If there was a pre-election arrangement with all opposition parties I would support that. We need more parties.
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May 7, 2020 19:53:46 GMT
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Post by london(ex)tory on May 7, 2020 19:53:46 GMT
I don't think polling right now is a waste of time, its still worth looking into what people think of the parties and how they would vote in a theoretical election. I still find the results very interesting. They should, however, be taken with a considerably larger grain of salt than usual. Exactly. Polling now does not tell us what people will do in an election in four years time, but it’s important to maintain the continuous series of data through good times and bad. As psephologists we should all support that as a worthy aim in its own right, regardless of what the figures actually say.
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