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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 14:58:38 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Dec 11, 2019 14:58:38 GMT
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Vibe
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Dec 11, 2019 14:59:39 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Dec 11, 2019 14:59:39 GMT
This is a question? If so then yes. Yes, it has. It is always worth bearing in mind that in any sensible country the Lib Dems would be about to increase their representation in Parliament from 48 to around 80. And then from there possibly hive off support from both sides and be the dominant party. They would have to drop policies like raising income tax mind you.
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 15:00:30 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Dec 11, 2019 15:00:30 GMT
This is a question? If so then yes. Yes, it has. It is always worth bearing in mind that in any sensible country the Lib Dems would be about to increase their representation in Parliament from 48 to around 80. in any sensible country we would not have 3/4 bad leaders at the same time
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Post by safc26 on Dec 11, 2019 15:01:42 GMT
I think it is easy to get fixated on the individual seat projections.
The projected majority of 28 compares pretty favourably with a projected 38 on a purely uniform swing. There's no doubt going to be quite a few individual surprises but my hunch is that uniform swing will probably still end up being quite close to the actual result.
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 16:43:08 GMT
Post by Merseymike on Dec 11, 2019 16:43:08 GMT
It is always worth bearing in mind that in any sensible country the Lib Dems would be about to increase their representation in Parliament from 48 to around 80. And then from there possibly hive off support from both sides and be the dominant party. They would have to drop policies like raising income tax mind you. Under PR, then clearly voting patterns would be very different - though there are not many countries where the Liberal party dominates (largely because under PR no party dominates)
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middyman
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 16:45:20 GMT
Post by middyman on Dec 11, 2019 16:45:20 GMT
This is a question? If so then yes. Yes, it has. It is always worth bearing in mind that in any sensible country the Lib Dems would be about to increase their representation in Parliament from 48 to around 80. I am not sure sensible people would vote for a party whose message has gone from "we could become the Government" to the ultra-negative "Stop Boris".
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Dec 11, 2019 17:52:38 GMT
Has the LibDem campaign really sucked This is a question? If so then yes. Yes, it has. I certainly think there will be a post-mortem, but in assessing the effectiveness of the campaign it is worth looking at this independent analysis showing only 5.8% of coverage focussing on us. Nigel Farage has actually got more coverage, and look how he's doing. You can add in that most of the coverage we get has been hostile (as would a lot of everyone else's tbf, but most of them get at least some positive coverage.)
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 18:02:25 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 11, 2019 18:02:25 GMT
And then from there possibly hive off support from both sides and be the dominant party. They would have to drop policies like raising income tax mind you. Under PR, then clearly voting patterns would be very different - though there are not many countries where the Liberal party dominates (largely because under PR no party dominates) Outside Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands, I'm struggling to think of liberal parties (and in particular left-liberal parties) leading the government even under PR. And I'm not counting the Macronistas.
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 11, 2019 18:10:04 GMT
Under PR, then clearly voting patterns would be very different - though there are not many countries where the Liberal party dominates (largely because under PR no party dominates) Outside Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands, I'm struggling to think of liberal parties (and in particular left-liberal parties) leading the government even under PR. And I'm not counting the Macronistas. And even in Denmark and Netherlands its largely down to the decline of the traditional Christian Democratic parties, whose voters have switched to right wing Liberals. The Danish set-up is the strangest - a right wing liberal party called 'Left'
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 18:29:36 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 11, 2019 18:29:36 GMT
Outside Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands, I'm struggling to think of liberal parties (and in particular left-liberal parties) leading the government even under PR. And I'm not counting the Macronistas. And even in Denmark and Netherlands its largely down to the decline of the traditional Christian Democratic parties, whose voters have switched to right wing Liberals. The Danish set-up is the strangest - a right wing liberal party called 'Left' For lots of the talk about how Continental politics is different, the traditional pattern of two large Volksparteien (as the Germans call them), with others on the edge, is hardly different to ours.
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 11, 2019 18:38:26 GMT
And even in Denmark and Netherlands its largely down to the decline of the traditional Christian Democratic parties, whose voters have switched to right wing Liberals. The Danish set-up is the strangest - a right wing liberal party called 'Left' For lots of the talk about how Continental politics is different, the traditional pattern of two large Volksparteien (as the Germans call them), with others on the edge, is hardly different to ours. Well, Spain and Malta have been even more dominated by two parties than we have - though its starting to shift in Spain. Not sure if its permanent though
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 18:40:23 GMT
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Post by ibfc on Dec 11, 2019 18:40:23 GMT
Under PR, then clearly voting patterns would be very different - though there are not many countries where the Liberal party dominates (largely because under PR no party dominates) Outside Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands, I'm struggling to think of liberal parties (and in particular left-liberal parties) leading the government even under PR. And I'm not counting the Macronistas. I would think all the parties you mentioned are more similar to Cameron’s Conservatives than the Liberal Democrats (especially Venstre and VVD). IMO, a pure PR system in the UK would see a fairly large right wing populist party like the Danish People’s Party or the Sweden Democrats to the right of a more socially liberal Conservative Party. The Lib Dems as they currently are would probably be a slightly smaller party like the Social Liberals in Denmark or the D66 in the Netherlands.
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 18:45:27 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 11, 2019 18:45:27 GMT
It is always worth bearing in mind that in any sensible country the Lib Dems would be about to increase their representation in Parliament from 48 to around 80. in any sensible country we would not have 3/4 bad leaders at the same time Yes, under PR all the Parties would have to learn the art of compromise (including mine, although we have at least tried it)
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 18:53:40 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Dec 11, 2019 18:53:40 GMT
It is always worth bearing in mind that in any sensible country the Lib Dems would be about to increase their representation in Parliament from 48 to around 80. I am not sure sensible people would vote for a party whose message has gone from "we could become the Government" to the ultra-negative "Stop Boris". Stopping Boris is just a precursor to anything sensible happening. That is probably why a number of well known life long Tories are recommending people not to vote for him.
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nelson
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Dec 11, 2019 18:53:54 GMT
Post by nelson on Dec 11, 2019 18:53:54 GMT
Outside Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands, I'm struggling to think of liberal parties (and in particular left-liberal parties) leading the government even under PR. And I'm not counting the Macronistas. And even in Denmark and Netherlands its largely down to the decline of the traditional Christian Democratic parties, whose voters have switched to right wing Liberals. Don't you mean Belgium? The Christian Democratic parties in Scandinavia are small and unimportant, and the Danish is even smaller than the Norwegian and Swedish ones. The Liberals were always the main centre-right party in Denmark apart from a brief period in the 80s where the Conservatives were bigger.
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Vibe
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Dec 11, 2019 18:59:43 GMT
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Post by Vibe on Dec 11, 2019 18:59:43 GMT
I am not sure sensible people would vote for a party whose message has gone from "we could become the Government" to the ultra-negative "Stop Boris". Stopping Boris is just a precursor to anything sensible happening. That is probably why a number of well known life long Tories are recommending people not to vote for him. With hindsight, they should probably have gone with a more positive message.
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 19:54:58 GMT
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 11, 2019 19:54:58 GMT
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middyman
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Dec 11, 2019 20:05:31 GMT
Post by middyman on Dec 11, 2019 20:05:31 GMT
Anybody would think that a paralysed Parliament is desirable.
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wallington
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Dec 11, 2019 20:25:46 GMT
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Post by wallington on Dec 11, 2019 20:25:46 GMT
I am starting to feel Bolsover is going to be one of them overhyped damp squibs. I guess we will know by Friday morning. But with my general prediction, I'm probably wrong.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 11, 2019 20:30:59 GMT
I am starting to feel Bolsover is going to be one of them overhyped damp squibs. I guess we will know by Friday morning. But with my general prediction, I'm probably wrong. At least the Tories seem to have learned this time not to chase after two in a bush when there's a bird i'th' hand.
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