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YouGov
Dec 10, 2019 23:39:39 GMT
Post by edgbaston on Dec 10, 2019 23:39:39 GMT
Interesting that the last one had Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross as an SNP gain and this one has the Lib Dems miles ahead. Shows that they don’t really have a clue about these sort of seats. I thought of you when I saw that. Utterly erroneous.
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YouGov
Dec 10, 2019 23:55:24 GMT
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 10, 2019 23:55:24 GMT
Most marginal seats on the YouGov model (using the Times figures)
Tied (notional winner and runner up)
Bedford (Lab over C) Bolton North East (Lab over C) Delyn (Lab over C) Glasgow East (SNP over Lab) Moray (C over SNP) Ochil and South Perthshire (SNP over C) Stockton South (Lab over C) Vale of Clwyd (C over Lab) Wolverhampton South West (Lab over C)
One point difference
Aberconwy (C over Lab) Aberdeen South (C over SNP) Bradford South (Lab over C) Cheltenham (C over L Dem) Dagenham and Rainham (C over Lab) East Renfrewshire (SNP over C) Gedling (Lab over C) Gordon (SNP over C) Great Grimsby (C over Lab) Lanark and Hamilton East (C over SNP) Lincoln (Lab over C) Rutherglen and Hamilton East (Lab over SNP) Sedgefield (C over Lab) Warrington South (Lab over C) Winchester (L Dem over C) Wrexham (C over Lab)
Two point difference
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (C over SNP) Banff and Buchan (C over SNP) Bolsover (C over Lab) Chingford and Woodford Green (C over Lab) Dewsbury (Lab over C) Esher and Walton (C over L Dem) Harrow East (C over Lab) Hendon (C over Lab) Hyndburn (Lab over C) Kensington (Lab over C) Midlothian (SNP over Lab) Milton Keynes North (C over Lab) Stoke-on-Trent Central (Lab over C) Vale of Glamorgan (C over Lab) Workington (Lab over C) Worsley and Eccles South (Lab over C)
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 0:20:32 GMT
via mobile
Post by thirdchill on Dec 11, 2019 0:20:32 GMT
Looking at some of labours safest seats, I feel that YouGov are significantly underestimating their vote share in these seats.
Seats which had labour at 80 percent and over now seem to have them in low 70s or high 60s in some cases.
I do not believe the labour vote is decreasing that much in these seats.
That would go some way to explaining 9 percent majority and majority of only 30, which I feel is a bit low for that gap between con and lab. Gap more likely to be around 6 percent for a 30 seat majority.
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,306
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Post by YL on Dec 11, 2019 9:01:00 GMT
Worth again counselling caution for a poll method that we have all shown quite serious doubts about, especially its engagement with independents. It is worth counselling caution, but frankly I think it is as good as anything we've got; I would certainly take it over anonymous briefings from "sources" associated with parties. And remember Canterbury before scoffing at its predictions too much. (Though it would be interesting to compare its performance with the other two MRPs I'm aware of out there.)
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WJ
Non-Aligned
Posts: 3,094
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Post by WJ on Dec 11, 2019 9:11:47 GMT
I do wonder whether this represents a true tightening of how people would actually vote. I see it as being similar to getting your hair cut. The days before, you tell yourself "I'm going to get something new" knowing full well that when you get in the barber's chair, you'll ask for exactly the same thing you've always had. Many of the Tories that have high ideas of voting Lib Dem or Labour voters voting Tory actually have no intention of doing so, no matter what they tell the pollsters.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,600
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 11:20:22 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Dec 11, 2019 11:20:22 GMT
May be worth remembering that these predictions are based on an overall Tory lead nationally of 43-34. If things *do* turn out closer than that....
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,306
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Post by Sibboleth on Dec 11, 2019 11:34:39 GMT
I would caution against over-analysing any of the shifts shown in individual constituencies - by definition they won't mean much at all except in aggregate.
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johng
Labour
Posts: 4,494
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 11:37:43 GMT
Post by johng on Dec 11, 2019 11:37:43 GMT
I do wonder whether this represents a true tightening of how people would actually vote. I see it as being similar to getting your hair cut. The days before, you tell yourself "I'm going to get something new" knowing full well that when you get in the barber's chair, you'll ask for exactly the same thing you've always had. Many of the Tories that have high ideas of voting Lib Dem or Labour voters voting Tory actually have no intention of doing so, no matter what they tell the pollsters. Some polls are showing 20% of voters are undecided. We'll have a record number of people deciding in the voting booth this time round in my opinion.
Yougov's 9% Tory lead could easily increase or decrease to the top or bottom of current polls (15%-6%)or perhaps even beyond.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,600
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 11, 2019 11:40:56 GMT
"Late deciders" are generally overstated as a factor in elections - a lot end up not voting at all, and those that do tend to split much as with public opinion more widely. However there is some evidence that 2017 was different in both respects - could the same happen again?
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 11:48:28 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Dec 11, 2019 11:48:28 GMT
Has the LibDem campaign really sucked
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,600
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 11:49:07 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Dec 11, 2019 11:49:07 GMT
Has the LibDem campaign really sucked This is a question? If so then yes. Yes, it has.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,853
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 11:56:48 GMT
Post by jamie on Dec 11, 2019 11:56:48 GMT
"Late deciders" are generally overstated as a factor in elections - a lot end up not voting at all, and those that do tend to split much as with public opinion more widely. However there is some evidence that 2017 was different in both respects - could the same happen again? The current undecideds look rather Labour friendly. Not a sure thing, but i would expect them to disproportionately break for Labour which would close the gap a little.
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 12:19:45 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Dec 11, 2019 12:19:45 GMT
16 seats have moved from Con to Lab between the first and second YouGov MRP studies: Bedford, Clwyd South, Dewsbury, Hyndburn, Kensington, Leigh, Stockton South, Stoke Central, Stroud, Vale Of Clwyd, Warrington South, Warwick, West Bromwich East, Wolv' SW, Workington, Ynys Mon. 3 seats have moved from SNP to Lab: East Lothian, Kirkcaldy, Rutherglen. 2 seats have moved from Con to Lab: Chipping Barnet, Putney. 2 seats have moved from Con to SNP: Angus, Gordon. 2 seats have moved from Con to LD: S Cambs, Winchester. 1 seat has moved from Lab to Con: Sedgefield. 1 seat has moved from SNP to LD: Caithness. 1 seat has moved from SNP to Con: Lanark. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LfRjAazZUbSjAOQ0w_ctAPWKfi5hBKilNj0LvuIZp9U/edit#gid=0
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 13:07:53 GMT
Post by Deleted on Dec 11, 2019 13:07:53 GMT
Na h-Eileanan an Iar has 22% for Conservatives. I think not. I suppose the lack of a Christian Party candidate might help the Conservatives, although since it is the isles, normal logic doesn't apply.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,853
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Post by jamie on Dec 11, 2019 13:21:50 GMT
Noticed a few constituencies where YouGov give a vote share for 'Other' despite there being no independent/minor party standing. Errors were present in their previous November model as well.
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 13:43:14 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Dec 11, 2019 13:43:14 GMT
Has the LibDem campaign really sucked This is a question? If so then yes. Yes, it has. Sometimes my personal perceptions differ from others, but Tories Get Brexit Done, and Labour NHS, simples. LibDems, havent a clue
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 13:46:37 GMT
via mobile
Post by Vibe on Dec 11, 2019 13:46:37 GMT
This is a question? If so then yes. Yes, it has. Sometimes my personal perceptions differ from others, but Tories Get Brexit Done, and Labour NHS, simples. LibDems, havent a clue Peoples' vote?
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 14:46:53 GMT
Post by mrpastelito on Dec 11, 2019 14:46:53 GMT
Sometimes my personal perceptions differ from others, but Tories Get Brexit Done, and Labour NHS, simples. LibDems, havent a clue Peoples' vote? Revoke!
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 14:52:58 GMT
via mobile
jamie likes this
Post by andrew111 on Dec 11, 2019 14:52:58 GMT
Has the LibDem campaign really sucked This is a question? If so then yes. Yes, it has. It is always worth bearing in mind that in any sensible country the Lib Dems would be about to increase their representation in Parliament from 48 to around 80.
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YouGov
Dec 11, 2019 14:57:52 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Dec 11, 2019 14:57:52 GMT
Sometimes my personal perceptions differ from others, but Tories Get Brexit Done, and Labour NHS, simples. LibDems, havent a clue Peoples' vote? Turn off, "Not another vote" The majority of people I know don't care if we are in or out.
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