|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 7:56:16 GMT
Post by pragmaticidealist on May 31, 2019 7:56:16 GMT
Quite clearly you would see quite a few bizarre results on these kinds of figures, the kind that would make Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber in 1992 look almost normal.
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,298
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 8:16:09 GMT
via mobile
Post by Tony Otim on May 31, 2019 8:16:09 GMT
Quite clearly you would see quite a few bizarre results on these kinds of figures, the kind that would make Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber in 1992 look almost normal. Any suggestions for seats being won with under 20% of the vote?
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,072
|
Post by cogload on May 31, 2019 8:38:23 GMT
I think the Greens now have a very good chance of becoming the UK's 3rd largest party... ;-)
|
|
mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,368
|
Post by mboy on May 31, 2019 8:43:15 GMT
I have seen very little evidence that we are fighting Peterborough to win - not much on LibDem Voice, no appeal emails. It comes too soon after our amazing result last week to be able to move up the three gears that would be necessary to make a serious impact. Of course, we have won seats before at by-elections where we had very little in the way of entrenched support - Croydon NE springs to mind - but in this case I think the impetus is with the Brexit Party. I will also be quite surprised if the recall petition in Brecon & Radnor reaches the threshold. If the party's got any sense it will be sending all available resource to getting the petition signatures in Brecon, and forgetting about Peterborough...
|
|
carlton43
Non-Aligned
Posts: 48,390
Member is Online
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 8:46:24 GMT
Post by carlton43 on May 31, 2019 8:46:24 GMT
I have seen very little evidence that we are fighting Peterborough to win - not much on LibDem Voice, no appeal emails. It comes too soon after our amazing result last week to be able to move up the three gears that would be necessary to make a serious impact. Of course, we have won seats before at by-elections where we had very little in the way of entrenched support - Croydon NE springs to mind - but in this case I think the impetus is with the Brexit Party. I will also be quite surprised if the recall petition in Brecon & Radnor reaches the threshold. If the party's got any sense it will be sending all available resource to getting the petition signatures in Brecon, and forgetting about Peterborough... I don't think it will come off and very much hope it does not.
|
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 8:47:01 GMT
Post by clyde1998 on May 31, 2019 8:47:01 GMT
Quite clearly you would see quite a few bizarre results on these kinds of figures, the kind that would make Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber in 1992 look almost normal. Any suggestions for seats being won with under 20% of the vote? Closest I've got is the Greens winning the Isle of Wight on 22.5%.
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,517
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 8:55:45 GMT
via mobile
Post by Khunanup on May 31, 2019 8:55:45 GMT
Quite clearly you would see quite a few bizarre results on these kinds of figures, the kind that would make Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber in 1992 look almost normal. Any suggestions for seats being won with under 20% of the vote? Portsmouth South...
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2019 8:57:06 GMT
Any suggestions for seats being won with under 20% of the vote? Closest I've got is the Greens winning the Isle of Wight on 22.5%. Pretty sure the Brexit party would win the Isle of Wight on these figures
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2019 8:58:29 GMT
Any suggestions for seats being won with under 20% of the vote? Portsmouth South... Not expecting much of an increase for your party there then? Increase nationally about 15%, increase locally about 2%
|
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
Post by clyde1998 on May 31, 2019 9:00:33 GMT
That's just silly/ ignorant from Sky News. "Lib Dems would win General Election"..nah... Still, all good for us to counter the usual wasted vote argument, also silly and ignorant. Now we really could do with a Green/LD electoral agreement , when it really could make a massive difference in terms of seats won. My base seat projection on the poll shows: Brx 232, Lib 165, Lab 139, SNP 55, Con 33, Plaid 4, Grn 2, Ind 1, Spkr 1. With an electoral pact between Lib & Grn: Lib/Grn 488, Lab 69, SNP 54, Brx 13, Plaid 4, Ind 1, Spkr 1, Con 0. Canada '93 anyone?
|
|
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 9:01:30 GMT
Post by finsobruce on May 31, 2019 9:01:30 GMT
I'd still be very surprised if the LDs came second because Peterborough contains a significant ethnic minority population thus Labour's vote will likely hold up better than average, beating the Tories must be a distinct possibility though. I'm starting to think Peterborough will be a comfortable Brexit Party win against divided opposition. Yes, sound points. It's very unpromising territory for us. Against your prediction is that Farage's parties have a truly terrible record of running insurgent by-election campaigns whereas our national party knows all about that if we can pull in enough activists from other areas. You gained two seats in the local elections when I think none were expected (Labour gained four and lost one). I suspect your percentage of the vote went up a fair bit and there has been a very recent national move to you by certain types of voters. This would have been regarded as quite promising in times gone by.
it's going to be interesting.
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,517
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 9:02:50 GMT
via mobile
Post by Khunanup on May 31, 2019 9:02:50 GMT
Not expecting much of an increase for your party there then? Increase nationally about 15%, increase locally about 2% It's just about how I could see the Labour & Tory vote collapsing if an election was called tomorrow. With a campaign it'd be very different. Perhaps one of the Southampton or Reading seats with a campaign could be under 20%.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on May 31, 2019 9:09:52 GMT
This huge rise is all down to Vince.... Ever since he decided to step down you have been on the rise 🤣 Miaow.
He'll be happy with his retirement presents I suspect.
|
|
clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 9:12:48 GMT
Post by clyde1998 on May 31, 2019 9:12:48 GMT
Closest I've got is the Greens winning the Isle of Wight on 22.5%. Pretty sure the Brexit party would win the Isle of Wight on these figures Looking at the percentage figures in a bit more detail, that's probably most likely the case. My figures show it as almost a five-way marginal ( ) , with the Conservatives (21.9%) and Labour (12.0%) holding more ground than they probably would in an election. The Isle of Wight would probably have an above average movement to the Brexit Party. I am slowly adding better bases for parties in each constituencies compared to the 2017 general election would be, as a result of the new parties and polarisation of the electorate based on Brexit preference since then.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on May 31, 2019 9:22:12 GMT
Not expecting much of an increase for your party there then? Increase nationally about 15%, increase locally about 2% It's just about how I could see the Labour & Tory vote collapsing if an election was called tomorrow. With a campaign it'd be very different. Perhaps one of the Southampton or Reading seats with a campaign could be under 20%. Yeah you've got to be looking at somewhere where Lib Dem support is actually below average, Labour and Tory support about average and with at least some Green potential - those would be a good bet
|
|
Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,298
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 9:27:42 GMT
via mobile
Post by Tony Otim on May 31, 2019 9:27:42 GMT
How about somewhere like Cardiff West - Labour and Tory votes collapse, Plaid, Lib Dems, Brexit and Greens all pick up votes, but none enough to break 20%?
|
|
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 9:42:00 GMT
Post by finsobruce on May 31, 2019 9:42:00 GMT
It would be odd if we didn't at least look at it very keenly. A lot would depend on the EU actually wanting us back, though. also terms of rejoining. Do Lib Dems support the Euro and schengen Schengen is, if not dead, looking very peeky.
|
|
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 10:11:09 GMT
Post by pepperminttea on May 31, 2019 10:11:09 GMT
Farage complaining about the methodology That is a legitimate criticism though. Pollsters really should be prompting for the Brexit Party now especially seen as they just came top in the European elections.
|
|
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 10:14:12 GMT
Post by finsobruce on May 31, 2019 10:14:12 GMT
Farage complaining about the methodology That is a legitimate criticism though. Pollsters really should be prompting for the Brexit Party now especially seen as they just came top in the European elections. But then they wouldn't have a headline to tout! Which was the whole of point of doing it that way.
Farage is wrong to call it Fake polling though. They are just asking the question in a different way. All polling is like this. It isn't fact, and shouldn't be treated as such.
|
|
Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
|
YouGov
May 31, 2019 10:31:22 GMT
via mobile
Post by Vibe on May 31, 2019 10:31:22 GMT
This huge rise is all down to Vince.... Ever since he decided to step down you have been on the rise 🤣 Miaow.
He'll be happy with his retirement presents I suspect.
Was just kidding. Vince actually did a great job during the European election. The question is can the next leader step up and be as good as cease the day?
|
|