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YouGov
Apr 29, 2017 21:21:25 GMT
Post by lancastrian on Apr 29, 2017 21:21:25 GMT
The Corbyn surge is on. May is in serious trouble.
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cogload
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I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Apr 29, 2017 21:28:23 GMT
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Post by cogload on Apr 29, 2017 21:28:23 GMT
Yep. Thus evergone should calm down. I'm as cool as a cucumber to hear my party's lead has apparently fallen by 10% in a week! The more experienced ones on here are. I think we have some newbugs who have frothed over a series of very frothy polls. A lead of 13% is still huge though.
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cogload
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I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Apr 29, 2017 21:29:36 GMT
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Post by cogload on Apr 29, 2017 21:29:36 GMT
The Corbyn surge is on. May is in serious trouble. Is your tongue firmly lodged in your cheek?
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YouGov
Apr 29, 2017 21:32:27 GMT
Post by lancastrian on Apr 29, 2017 21:32:27 GMT
Sort of on the Corbyn surge. But seriously the Conservatives do probably need to win by double figures to hold their majority with the Scottish and Lib Dem situations, so most of the margin for error has gone in a week.
Corbyn is now looking like he could be acheive more votes than either Brown or Miliband, no doubt to the displeasure of many Labour posters on here.
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Post by thirdchill on Apr 29, 2017 21:33:14 GMT
Yep. Thus evergone should calm down. I'm as cool as a cucumber to hear my party's lead has apparently fallen by 10% in a week! Chances are, it's potentially the latest polls being more accurate. Have always been unconvinced by some of the huge leads of 20% that have been recorded recently. 13% sounds more reasonable and putting the figures into electoral calculus still comes up with a majority of 72, which would be a good result for us (the expectations management from some people has been terrible). TBH the widest I can see the gap being in reality is 16 points (Con 43, Lab 27). I can't see labour falling much below 27, there's enough people out there who don't think much of corbyn but will still vote labour. And despite some polls, I don't see support for us going above 43% even on a good day.
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Tom
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YouGov
Apr 29, 2017 21:59:22 GMT
Post by Tom on Apr 29, 2017 21:59:22 GMT
So the Conservative lead has probably narrowed a bit. I still expect a three figure majority though. Just wait until the Tory attack machine kicks in.
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Deleted
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Apr 29, 2017 22:01:14 GMT
Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2017 22:01:14 GMT
I'm as cool as a cucumber to hear my party's lead has apparently fallen by 10% in a week! Chances are, it's potentially the latest polls being more accurate. Have always been unconvinced by some of the huge leads of 20% that have been recorded recently. 13% sounds more reasonable and putting the figures into electoral calculus still comes up with a majority of 72, which would be a good result for us (the expectations management from some people has been terrible). TBH the widest I can see the gap being in reality is 16 points (Con 43, Lab 27). I can't see labour falling much below 27, there's enough people out there who don't think much of corbyn but will still vote labour. And despite some polls, I don't see support for us going above 43% even on a good day. A 13 point lead is certainly not to be sniffed at and it would be a great achievement on Election Day. The question is: how much narrower is it going to get?
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Tom
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Apr 29, 2017 22:07:20 GMT
Post by Tom on Apr 29, 2017 22:07:20 GMT
Chances are, it's potentially the latest polls being more accurate. Have always been unconvinced by some of the huge leads of 20% that have been recorded recently. 13% sounds more reasonable and putting the figures into electoral calculus still comes up with a majority of 72, which would be a good result for us (the expectations management from some people has been terrible). TBH the widest I can see the gap being in reality is 16 points (Con 43, Lab 27). I can't see labour falling much below 27, there's enough people out there who don't think much of corbyn but will still vote labour. And despite some polls, I don't see support for us going above 43% even on a good day. A 13 point lead is certainly not to be sniffed at and it would be a great achievement on Election Day. The question is: how much narrower is it going to get? It's not going to get much narrower. Just wait till the Conservative attack machine kicks in.
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YouGov
Apr 29, 2017 22:11:56 GMT
Post by marksenior on Apr 29, 2017 22:11:56 GMT
A 13 point lead is certainly not to be sniffed at and it would be a great achievement on Election Day. The question is: how much narrower is it going to get? It's not going to get much narrower. Just wait till the Conservative attack machine kicks in. Lynton Crosby is good at polishing up turds but May's campaign so far is a great big heap of elephant dung so he has his work cut out .
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Deleted
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Apr 29, 2017 22:21:51 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Apr 29, 2017 22:21:51 GMT
Slack water.
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YouGov
Apr 29, 2017 22:35:37 GMT
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Post by seanryanj on Apr 29, 2017 22:35:37 GMT
It's not going to get much narrower. Just wait till the Conservative attack machine kicks in. Lynton Crosby is good at polishing up turds but May's campaign so far is a great big heap of elephant dung so he has his work cut out . Would defo want to stop using strong and stable beginning to sound silly should have been used 2 weeks out from polling day and then ramped up!
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 29, 2017 22:40:34 GMT
Nothing will become clear until the great electoral laundering that UKIP & (proportionally less) Labour will have next Thursday and the media narrative and campaigning impact that will happen in the aftermath.
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YouGov
Apr 29, 2017 23:15:07 GMT
Post by lancastrian on Apr 29, 2017 23:15:07 GMT
Nothing will become clear until the great electoral laundering that UKIP & (proportionally less) Labour will have next Thursday and the media narrative and campaigning impact that will happen in the aftermath. Labour performed similarly to 2012 last year whilst behind in the polls. If they can repeat that performance relative to the polls they could 'win' the NEV on Thursday. What would that do to the campaign?
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Jack
Reform Party
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YouGov
Apr 29, 2017 23:17:39 GMT
Post by Jack on Apr 29, 2017 23:17:39 GMT
The aforementioned thirteen point lead:
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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YouGov
Apr 29, 2017 23:40:35 GMT
Post by Khunanup on Apr 29, 2017 23:40:35 GMT
Nothing will become clear until the great electoral laundering that UKIP & (proportionally less) Labour will have next Thursday and the media narrative and campaigning impact that will happen in the aftermath. Labour performed similarly to 2012 last year whilst behind in the polls. If they can repeat that performance relative to the polls they could 'win' the NEV on Thursday. What would that do to the campaign? There is zero chance they can win the NEV because it's the (almost entirely) counties up in England. It's all going to about seats anyway and all the signs are that where Labour are in a fight with the Tories they're getting stuffed (see local by election after local by election where there's swings from them to the Conservatives almost every time). That's the problem. If it is somewhat better than the signs are pointing to then the results will have less of an impact.
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YouGov
Apr 30, 2017 10:49:07 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 30, 2017 10:49:07 GMT
Noticeable that the Green percentage in that poll is 2%. They were on 3.8% in 2015. Presumably if accurate, that vote will be going to Labour?
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YouGov
Apr 30, 2017 11:09:12 GMT
Post by akmd on Apr 30, 2017 11:09:12 GMT
Some of that Green vote could go to the Lib Dems. I'd be surprised if it was all one-way traffic in Labour's direction.
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YouGov
Apr 30, 2017 11:15:49 GMT
Post by finsobruce on Apr 30, 2017 11:15:49 GMT
Some of that Green vote could go to the Lib Dems. I'd be surprised if it was all one-way traffic in Labour's direction. it isn't a bloc vote after all.
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YouGov
Apr 30, 2017 11:45:25 GMT
Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 30, 2017 11:45:25 GMT
Labour performed similarly to 2012 last year whilst behind in the polls. If they can repeat that performance relative to the polls they could 'win' the NEV on Thursday. What would that do to the campaign? There is zero chance they can win the NEV because it's the (almost entirely) counties up in England. You clearly don't understand how NEV is calculated. The whole point is that it takes account of the areas voting and then adjusts as if it was the whole country, not just the areas where there are elections
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iain
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Apr 30, 2017 18:30:20 GMT
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Post by iain on Apr 30, 2017 18:30:20 GMT
Some interesting Brexit polls:
Best reflects your view: No deal better than a bad deal - 46% Bad deal better than no deal - 22%
There [X] be a referendum to accept/reject the terms of Brexit: Should not - 49% Should - 31%
Britain [X] seek to remain a member of the European Single Market: Should - 51% Should not - 26%
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