Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Jul 23, 2019 23:16:56 GMT
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 24, 2019 16:43:01 GMT
Thanks for the interesting link about Saxony. That's great stuff. The Greens winning FPTP seats there would be quite the turn-up. Unfortunately I also have to point out that in the German city-states, the Senat is the executive. The 'reigning mayor' will be elected by the Bürgerschaft (City Assembly) next month.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jul 24, 2019 19:42:16 GMT
Thanks for the interesting link about Saxony. That's great stuff. The Greens winning FPTP seats there would be quite the turn-up. Unfortunately I also have to point out that in the German city-states, the Senat is the executive. The 'reigning mayor' will be elected by the Bürgerschaft (City Assembly) next month. Well, in Bremen - consisting of 2 cities (Bremen proper & BremerHafen) - it's more complicate. Honestly i have no idea, what would happen, if city and region had different majorities.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 7, 2019 4:28:40 GMT
INSA poll (22-31/7) for Saxony, with the next Landtag election scheduled for the first of September: CDU 28% (+4) [-11.4] AfD 25% [+15.3] Linke 16% [-2.9] Grüne 12% (-4) [+6.3] SPD 8% (+1) [-4.4] FDP 5% (-1) [+1.2] Others 6% [-4.1]
Changes from their last poll (4-11/6) and from the last election.
www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen.htm
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Post by carlton43 on Aug 7, 2019 7:57:05 GMT
INSA poll (22-31/7) for Saxony, with the next Landtag election scheduled for the first of September: CDU 28% (+4) [-11.4] AfD 25% [+15.3] Linke 16% [-2.9] Grüne 12% (-4) [+6.3] SPD 8% (+1) [-4.4] FDP 5% (-1) [+1.2] Others 6% [-4.1]
Changes from their last poll (4-11/6) and from the last election.
www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen.htm
That tends to evidence a very large shift indeed from early June to late July? Is there any reason advanced for this? The shift in the top two parties is dramatic.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Aug 7, 2019 8:28:47 GMT
INSA poll (22-31/7) for Saxony, with the next Landtag election scheduled for the first of September: CDU 28% (+4) [-11.4] AfD 25% [+15.3] Linke 16% [-2.9] Grüne 12% (-4) [+6.3] SPD 8% (+1) [-4.4] FDP 5% (-1) [+1.2] Others 6% [-4.1]
Changes from their last poll (4-11/6) and from the last election.
www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen.htm
That implies the last poll had the AfD in the lead there...is that true?
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 7, 2019 9:00:37 GMT
INSA poll (22-31/7) for Saxony, with the next Landtag election scheduled for the first of September: CDU 28% (+4) [-11.4] AfD 25% [+15.3] Linke 16% [-2.9] Grüne 12% (-4) [+6.3] SPD 8% (+1) [-4.4] FDP 5% (-1) [+1.2] Others 6% [-4.1]
Changes from their last poll (4-11/6) and from the last election.
www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen.htm
That tends to evidence a very large shift indeed from early June to late July? Is there any reason advanced for this? The shift in the top two parties is dramatic. The +- numbers on the right are since the last Landtag elections, on the left since the last poll (so no change since the last poll for AfD & up 4 for CDU).
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 7, 2019 10:35:11 GMT
INSA poll (22-31/7) for Saxony, with the next Landtag election scheduled for the first of September: CDU 28% (+4) [-11.4] AfD 25% [+15.3] Linke 16% [-2.9] Grüne 12% (-4) [+6.3] SPD 8% (+1) [-4.4] FDP 5% (-1) [+1.2] Others 6% [-4.1]
Changes from their last poll (4-11/6) and from the last election.
www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen.htm
That implies the last poll had the AfD in the lead there...is that true? Yes, and I recall some comment on it at the time.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 7, 2019 21:06:31 GMT
INSA poll (22-31/7) for Saxony, with the next Landtag election scheduled for the first of September: CDU 28% (+4) [-11.4] AfD 25% [+15.3] Linke 16% [-2.9] Grüne 12% (-4) [+6.3] SPD 8% (+1) [-4.4] FDP 5% (-1) [+1.2] Others 6% [-4.1]
Changes from their last poll (4-11/6) and from the last election.
www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/sachsen.htm
That tends to evidence a very large shift indeed from early June to late July? Is there any reason advanced for this? The shift in the top two parties is dramatic. The poll numbers for the Greens in Saxony have been quite volatile over the last year ranging from 6% to 16%. Given that their best result at state elections in Saxony so far was 6.4% in 2009, they'd probably be happy to take the 12% if offered. Their national polling numbers are also down a bit, the link below has an up to date tracking graph. pollytix.de/wahltrend/Edit: They did obtain 10.3% (+4.3) at the EP vote in Saxony on a 61.4% nationwide turnout.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 11, 2019 16:54:32 GMT
Brandenburg is the other East German state that goes to the polls on the first of September and Forsa have done the first public taxation of the short campa. (25/7-5/8) AfD 21% (+1) [+8.8] CDU 18% (-1) [-5.0] SPD 17% (-3) [-14.9] Grüne 16% (+4) [+9.8] Linke 14% (-3) [-4.6] FDP 5% [+3.5] BVB/FW 4% (n/a) [+1.3] Others 5% (-2) [+0.9]
Changes are from the last Forsa poll (17-20/12) and from the last state election. www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/brandenburg.htmBVB/FW can be freely translated as 'Brandenburgish United Citizens Movements / Free Voters'. ( German wikipedia article) They did obtain 6.3% at the recent local elections that were held simultaneously with the EP elections and are not to be confused with the Brandenburg branch of Aiwanger's 'Free Voters' party. ( German wikipedia article) Nor with a third 'Free Voters' party in Brandenburg which did spin off from the second one. ( German wikipedia article)
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 11, 2019 21:27:13 GMT
I saw an article the other day about how the hipsters are leaving Berlin (they don't want to live in the Plattenbau fields out east) and are headed for the villages in Brandenburg on the train lines. One to watch for the future.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 11, 2019 21:30:01 GMT
A glance at the Brandenburg splinter FW is interesting. Seems like they had links to the Schill-Partei. And could they find a more made-up-sounding name for a middle-aged Ossi woman than Maria-Ilona Könnecke?
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 11, 2019 21:48:01 GMT
I saw an article the other day about how the hipsters are leaving Berlin (they don't want to live in the Plattenbau fields out east) and are headed for the villages in Brandenburg on the train lines. One to watch for the future. Potsdam has become quite trendy of late.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 11, 2019 21:59:00 GMT
I do wish hipsters from Metropolises would fucking quit doing that
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 12, 2019 8:29:23 GMT
I do wish hipsters from Metropolises would fucking quit doing that Are there many in St Albans?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 12, 2019 9:52:09 GMT
I do wish hipsters from Metropolises would fucking quit doing that Are there many in St Albans? I guess more those that have grown up a bit, had children and so on, though they do exist in more pure form in some areas as well
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 12, 2019 10:05:17 GMT
Are there many in St Albans? I guess more those that have grown up a bit, had children and so on, though they do exist in more pure form in some areas as well Have you a plan to mop up these pockets of resistance?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 12, 2019 10:27:46 GMT
I guess more those that have grown up a bit, had children and so on, though they do exist in more pure form in some areas as well Have you a plan to mop up these pockets of resistance? In St Albans, I am the pocket of resistance
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Post by finsobruce on Aug 12, 2019 10:36:29 GMT
Have you a plan to mop up these pockets of resistance? In St Albans, I am the pocket of resistance
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 12, 2019 17:06:50 GMT
I do wish hipsters from Metropolises would fucking quit doing that Most of the hipsters would wither up and die if they were more than 5km from Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. It's mainly young to young middle aged couples moving out seeking better housing than can be afforded in Berlin which is becoming expensive if you don't want to live in a Plattenbau and also looking for better schools with smaller class sizes and no Turks. The trick for the last ten years has been to move to the nicer bits of the East, first Prenzlauer Berg, then Köpenick and parts of Pankow, but they have become expensive as well. So now its Potsdam and the towns at the end of the S-Bahn lines. When S21 is finished it will open up even more opportunities for this, especially from the North. However, with Berlin being broke and having two expensive projects that have had problems (BER and U5), I wouldn't expect S21 to done before I turn 60.
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