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Post by Arthur Figgis on Aug 12, 2019 18:45:34 GMT
I do wish hipsters from Metropolises would fucking quit doing that Most of the hipsters would wither up and die if they were more than 5km from Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. It's mainly young to young middle aged couples moving out seeking better housing than can be afforded in Berlin which is becoming expensive if you don't want to live in a Plattenbau and also looking for better schools with smaller class sizes and no Turks. The trick for the last ten years has been to move to the nicer bits of the East, first Prenzlauer Berg, then Köpenick and parts of Pankow, but they have become expensive as well. So now its Potsdam and the towns at the end of the S-Bahn lines. When S21 is finished it will open up even more opportunities for this, especially from the North. However, with Berlin being broke and having two expensive projects that have had problems (BER and U5), I wouldn't expect S21 to done before I turn 60. The U5 extension is a travesty, and will ruin the fabulous U55.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 12, 2019 20:10:32 GMT
Most of the hipsters would wither up and die if they were more than 5km from Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. It's mainly young to young middle aged couples moving out seeking better housing than can be afforded in Berlin which is becoming expensive if you don't want to live in a Plattenbau and also looking for better schools with smaller class sizes and no Turks. The trick for the last ten years has been to move to the nicer bits of the East, first Prenzlauer Berg, then Köpenick and parts of Pankow, but they have become expensive as well. So now its Potsdam and the towns at the end of the S-Bahn lines. When S21 is finished it will open up even more opportunities for this, especially from the North. However, with Berlin being broke and having two expensive projects that have had problems (BER and U5), I wouldn't expect S21 to done before I turn 60. The U5 extension is a travesty, and will ruin the fabulous U55. You'll still have U4 for short pointless lines.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 12, 2019 20:19:00 GMT
I do wish hipsters from Metropolises would fucking quit doing that Most of the hipsters would wither up and die if they were more than 5km from Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. It's mainly young to young middle aged couples moving out seeking better housing than can be afforded in Berlin which is becoming expensive if you don't want to live in a Plattenbau and also looking for better schools with smaller class sizes and no Turks. The trick for the last ten years has been to move to the nicer bits of the East, first Prenzlauer Berg, then Köpenick and parts of Pankow, but they have become expensive as well. So now its Potsdam and the towns at the end of the S-Bahn lines. When S21 is finished it will open up even more opportunities for this, especially from the North. However, with Berlin being broke and having two expensive projects that have had problems (BER and U5), I wouldn't expect S21 to done before I turn 60. I remember Wolfgang Thierse moaning about Swabians (as ever), and then claiming that Berlin subsidises various places. Until it was embarrassingly shown that Berlin is perennially bust and is basically subsidised by, of all places, Brandenburg.
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Post by iainbhx on Aug 12, 2019 20:43:40 GMT
Most of the hipsters would wither up and die if they were more than 5km from Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg. It's mainly young to young middle aged couples moving out seeking better housing than can be afforded in Berlin which is becoming expensive if you don't want to live in a Plattenbau and also looking for better schools with smaller class sizes and no Turks. The trick for the last ten years has been to move to the nicer bits of the East, first Prenzlauer Berg, then Köpenick and parts of Pankow, but they have become expensive as well. So now its Potsdam and the towns at the end of the S-Bahn lines. When S21 is finished it will open up even more opportunities for this, especially from the North. However, with Berlin being broke and having two expensive projects that have had problems (BER and U5), I wouldn't expect S21 to done before I turn 60. I remember Wolfgang Thierse moaning about Swabians (as ever), and then claiming that Berlin subsidises various places. Until it was embarrassingly shown that Berlin is perennially bust and is basically subsidised by, of all places, Brandenburg. There is a strange concentration of Swabians in Prenzlauer Berg, you can tell by the fights over a dropped eurocent. Berlin City Government is flat broke and likely to stay that way for decades. Brandenburg is benefiting from the sort of people who are moving there.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Aug 12, 2019 20:51:59 GMT
I remember Wolfgang Thierse moaning about Swabians (as ever), and then claiming that Berlin subsidises various places. Until it was embarrassingly shown that Berlin is perennially bust and is basically subsidised by, of all places, Brandenburg. There is a strange concentration of Swabians in Prenzlauer Berg, you can tell by the fights over a dropped eurocent. Berlin City Government is flat broke and likely to stay that way for decades. Brandenburg is benefiting from the sort of people who are moving there. Why's Berlin so hard up? Are there any other German Lander who are financially screwed?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 12, 2019 22:51:49 GMT
Berlin has a fairly narrow tax base compared to most major German cities, and the costs of reconstruction have not helped. That and a lot of spending on fripperies- now was not the time to rebuild the old Prussian palace, for example.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 13, 2019 18:28:55 GMT
Are there any other German Lander who are financially screwed? Already traditionally burdened with heavy debts are Berlin, Bremen and Saarland.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
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Post by Toylyyev on Aug 30, 2019 19:25:41 GMT
I guess the last polls for the September first elections are out, so here is the average of the three results from distinct pollsters (FGW, INSA, Infratest Dimap) with fieldwork beyond 20/8 in Saxony: CDU 30.3% (+2.3) [-9.1] AfD 24.5% (-0.5) [+14.8] Linke 15% (-1) [-3.9] Grüne 11% (-1) [+5.3] SPD 7.8% (-0.2) [-4.6] FDP 5% [+1.2] Others 6.4% (+0.4) [-3.7]
Changes from the (22-31/7) INSA poll upthread and from the last state election. Idem for Brandenburg: SPD 21.7% (+4.7) [-10.2] AfD 21.3% (+0.3) [+9.1] CDU 17.2% (-0.8) [-5.8] Linke 14.7% (+0.7) [-3.9] Grüne 13.5% (-2.5) [+7.3] FDP 5% [+3.5] BVB/FW 4.3% (+0.3) [+1.6] Others 2.3% (-2.7) [-1.6]
Changes from the ( 25/7-5/8) Forsa poll upthread and from the last state election.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 31, 2019 14:48:41 GMT
A lot of talk that the CDU might use these elections to knife AKK.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2019 12:40:33 GMT
An interesting point I saw earlier. Saxony has only had four minister-presidents since democracy returned. There was a fifth, but he was an interim appointee ahead of elections.
That's very stable.
Saxony has also had the only leader of a Land for whom German was their second language- Stanislaw Tillich, 2008-2017, is a Sorb.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2019 14:28:28 GMT
Liveblog- apologies, in German only, so a bit of a summary: - Turnout in Saxony at 14h CET is twice as high as the same time at the last election... Dresden in particular is on 61% up from 38%, which implies some huge turnouts in the more rural areas. - Not as spectacular, but turnout in up from 22.4% to 31.3% at 14h (figures from RBB, the Berlin-Brandenburg public broadcaster) - The last poll had the FDP and Brandenburg Freie Waehler on the 5% threshold or nearabouts. Neither won seats in 2014. There are suggestions that the FW will get a direct mandate though, which is the first I've heard of it. - The comedian Jan Boehmermann, best known for his run in with Sultan Erdo, is apparently joining the SPD and wants to join the party leadership. Oh well, as comedians go, he won't be as laughable as Andrea Nahles.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 1, 2019 15:52:40 GMT
Unlikely, that FW will win a FPTP-seat; but, weak as the field is, not impossible.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 1, 2019 15:59:10 GMT
- The last poll had the FDP and Brandenburg Freie Waehler on the 5% threshold or nearabouts. Neither won seats in 2014. There are suggestions that the FW will get a direct mandate though, which is the first I've heard of it. The FW won 3 seats there last time. The candidate who might win a direct mandate is an ex-SPD member of the Landtag. Well, the scholastic, parliamentary and meteorological summer is almost over. Popcorn's at the ready. Here we go...
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Sept 1, 2019 16:08:38 GMT
Unlikely, that FW will win a FPTP-seat; but, weak as the field is, not impossible. Teltow-Fläming III is the constituency to watch. Saxony basically turned into a CDU-AfD duel and Brandenburg into an SPD-AfD one. Never let it be said that polls don't influence people. (Could be a reason for the increased turnout too.) FDP on 4.8% in the exit poll in both states!
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 1, 2019 16:12:16 GMT
Exit polls, Infratest Dimap for ARD and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF. The former usually has slightly more left-wing numbers. Saxony: ARD ZDF
CDU 32% (-7.4) 45 CDU 33.5% (-5.9) 46 AfD 27.5% (+17.8) 38 AfD 27.5% (+17.8) 38 Linke 10.5% (-8.4) 14 Linke 10.5% (-8.4) 14 Grüne 9% (+3.3) 12 Grüne 8% (+2.3) 11 SPD 8% (-4.4) 11 SPD 8% (-4.4) 11 FDP 4.8% (+1.0) FDP 4.5% (+0.7) FW 3% FW 3% 120 120 FW are Aiwanger's 'Free Voters' here, unlike in Brandenburg as mentioned earlier.
Brandenburg: ARD ZDF
SPD 27.5% (-4.4) 26 SPD 26.5% (-5.5) 25 AfD 22.5% (+10.3) 22 AfD 24.5% (+12.3) 23 CDU 15.5% (-7.5) 15 CDU 15.5% (-7.5) 15 Linke 11% (-7.6) 10 Linke 10.5% (-8.1) 10 Grüne 10% (+3.8) 10 Grüne 10% (+3.8) 10 FDP 4.8% (+3.5) FDP 4.5% (+3.2) BVB/FW 5% (+2.3) 5 BVB/FW 5% (+2.3) 5 88 88
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 1, 2019 16:13:18 GMT
Ah, so what often happens in state elections happened in Brandenburg.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2019 16:49:44 GMT
Katja Kipping claims Die Linke were "victims of a tactical vote". Yes, Katja, your voters tactically voted for the AfD...
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,894
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Post by jamie on Sept 1, 2019 17:04:42 GMT
Katja Kipping claims Die Linke were "victims of a tactical vote". Yes, Katja, your voters tactically voted for the AfD Can Die Linke continue to pretend that their voters are all progressive socialists as opposed to many being nostalgic, reactionary pensioners?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 1, 2019 17:08:22 GMT
ARD reports that if the figure for the SPD in Saxony is correct, it will be the lowest SPD score in any Land-level election ever.
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 1, 2019 17:23:56 GMT
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