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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 15, 2018 9:02:11 GMT
A week after the poll, Jeff Colyer (Governor of Kansas) has conceded the Republican Primary to Kris Kobach - the Secretary of State and convenor of Trump's election fraud task force that has failed to find any election fraud. Kobach had strong Trump backing.
No polls for the general election yet but there's a strong Independent candidate called Greg Orman who got 42% when he ran for the Senate in 2014.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 15, 2018 9:13:01 GMT
I guess you could say two terms was 'pawlenty enough' Minnesota has been drifting slowly to the right for a while. Will be interesting how November plays out in the State. Democratic sweep now. Walz was the best the Democrats could have got for Governor, their votes in the 1st and 8th Congressional Districts we’re comfortably ahead of their Republican counterparts. They’ll hold what they’ve got, and possibly gain Lewis’ 2nd CD. Turnout was fairly low and with greater enthusiasm on the blue side but things probably won't be so one sided in November. With Waltz top of the ballot the Democrats should hold the 1st District but I would still consider the 8th a toss up.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 15, 2018 9:47:03 GMT
There figures are atrocious in several safe Democrat districts but they held up pretty well in the in the 8th (took about 50% of the vote) which has always looked like a difficult defence for them. Currently 47.1% if you combine the three Republicans to 49.9% for the four Democrats with 68% reporting. In District 5 Cathy McMorris Rodgers is only 525 votes ahead of her Democratic opponent, and combining all the Republicans barely puts her over 50%. Only 64% reporting though, so it’s possible McMorris Rodgers has a lot of favourable territory still to report. And in the 3rd District Jaime Herrera Beutler is only on 40.9% with 70% reporting, and combining the Republican vote only gets her to 49.7%, so effectively a dead heat in that District. Mail in votes continue to slowly trickle in and the GOP position has improved slightly in both of these districts. They are up to about 51% in both of them.
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 17, 2018 12:21:00 GMT
FiveThirtyEight's House model is now up. Explanation of how it works is here. The default version of the model currently shows the Dems with a 74.6% chance of winning the majority.
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 17, 2018 12:34:15 GMT
Quite a few of their individual house ratings look quite suspect - they seem to be relying on the general election a lot.
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 17, 2018 13:22:56 GMT
Quite a few of their individual house ratings look quite suspect - they seem to be relying on the general election a lot. I'd guess that those districts are ones where there isn't currently much (or any) polling of those particular districts, or of districts that the model thinks are similar to those districts. In which case, it's inevitable that a polling-based model will rely more on the general election in predicting them.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 17, 2018 14:43:06 GMT
House polls from credible pollsters are very rare. Monmouth University, praise be upon them, have polled several competitive districts this year and the general trend is that the Democrats seem to be doing okay, although not spectacularly well. My best guess is that the 538 model is about right, the Democrats are favourites to take the House at the moment but not overwhelmingly so.
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 17, 2018 15:53:07 GMT
Quite a few of their individual house ratings look quite suspect - they seem to be relying on the general election a lot. I'd guess that those districts are ones where there isn't currently much (or any) polling of those particular districts, or of districts that the model thinks are similar to those districts. In which case, it's inevitable that a polling-based model will rely more on the general election in predicting them. Not necessarily - for instance, at a glance they have WV-3 as likely Republican, despite polling showing the Democrat leading.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 17, 2018 16:29:00 GMT
I'd guess that those districts are ones where there isn't currently much (or any) polling of those particular districts, or of districts that the model thinks are similar to those districts. In which case, it's inevitable that a polling-based model will rely more on the general election in predicting them. Not necessarily - for instance, at a glance they have WV-3 as likely Republican, despite polling showing the Democrat leading. Larry Sabato’s team discussed WV3. It’s a tough one to forecast - historically Democratic but lurching rapidly to the Republicans (IIRC it was one of Trump’s largest margins of victory), however an open seat is often a competitive seat, the Democratic candidate appears strong, and it’s also Manchin’s home patch and so is expected to do well there win or lose Statewide so he could drag those lower down the ticket along with him. It’s also, like West Virginia as a whole rarely polled so you’ve not got a lot of evidence to work with.
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Post by greenchristian on Aug 17, 2018 16:42:08 GMT
I'd guess that those districts are ones where there isn't currently much (or any) polling of those particular districts, or of districts that the model thinks are similar to those districts. In which case, it's inevitable that a polling-based model will rely more on the general election in predicting them. Not necessarily - for instance, at a glance they have WV-3 as likely Republican, despite polling showing the Democrat leading. Yeah, that one does look odd, even on the polls-only version. From what I can gather, they have a single pollster who has handled that race, and it was back in June. Based solely on what they've said about the model, this must mean that some combination of the following are true: 1) The pollster has a history of being Democrat-leaning 2) The national polls have moved Republican since the date of that sample 3) The Republicans are polling significantly better in districts they've identified as being demographically similar It's worth noting that they say they are placing more weight on diversity of polls than they usually do, so unless another pollster polls this race, it's likely that the district polling is being downgraded by the model.
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 17, 2018 16:58:21 GMT
Not necessarily - for instance, at a glance they have WV-3 as likely Republican, despite polling showing the Democrat leading. Yeah, that one does look odd, even on the polls-only version. From what I can gather, they have a single pollster who has handled that race, and it was back in June. Based solely on what they've said about the model, this must mean that some combination of the following are true: 1) The pollster has a history of being Democrat-leaning 2) The national polls have moved Republican since the date of that sample 3) The Republicans are polling significantly better in districts they've identified as being demographically similar It's worth noting that they say they are placing more weight on diversity of polls than they usually do, so unless another pollster polls this race, it's likely that the district polling is being downgraded by the model. Certainly other handicappers have it as Leans Republican, but admit to surprising themselves. As a handicapper it seems a heart and head quandary - your heart is saying open seat, good Democratic candidate with pretty spectacular fundraising, a not-so-stellar Republican nominee, possible Manchin coattails, looking like a Democratic year, whilst your head is saying big Trump District, been trending Republican for years even when Nick Rahall was clinging on by his fingernails so shouldn’t be competitive.
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 17, 2018 17:07:07 GMT
I think the weirdest rating is in PA-11, which they have as ‘leans R’, whilst no other ratings agency has it as anything but safe.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 17, 2018 17:17:27 GMT
and it’s also Manchin’s home patch No, he's from the north of the state.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 17, 2018 19:14:01 GMT
Democrats as likely to flip Montana as they are Iowa 4th...
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Post by johnloony on Aug 17, 2018 22:27:32 GMT
FiveThirtyEight's House model is now up. Explanation of how it works is here. The default version of the model currently shows the Dems with a 74.6% chance of winning the majority. The fact that we are still three months away from the election means that any such prediction is a load of gucksquelch, regardless of any questions of methodology or accuracy.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Aug 17, 2018 22:42:34 GMT
and it’s also Manchin’s home patch No, he's from the north of the state. Indeed, born in and still lives in Marion County. That being said the 3rd district is certainly where I think he will run furthest ahead of Obama, Clinton, etc. Much of it is still very strong territory for the Democrats at state level, with people like Ojeda easily being elected to the state legislature, even as it has swung heavily Republican in Federal races. I posted this before but it is worth posting again, Logan County in 2016 President: Trump (R) - 80% House of Rep: Jenkins (R) - 82% Governor: Justice (D) - 56% Sec of State: Tennant (D) - 54% Treasurer: Predue (D) - 64% State Senate: Ojeda (D) - 60%
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 17, 2018 23:21:40 GMT
and it’s also Manchin’s home patch No, he's from the north of the state. Sorry, I made the obviously incorrect assumption that when two political handicappers on the same day said Manchin would be strongest in the 3rd it was because that was his hometown political base.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2018 17:00:00 GMT
Who’s going to win Tennessee?
If the Democrats win it’ll be their first victory in a Senate election in Tennessee since 1990.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 21, 2018 17:21:22 GMT
Kansas governor is of passing interest but I suspect Orman is past his peak- he can't tie Brownback to his republican opponent so easily this time.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 21, 2018 19:18:38 GMT
Kansas governor is of passing interest but I suspect Orman is past his peak- he can't tie Brownback to his republican opponent so easily this time. Orman isn't competitive. The only questions is whether he plays spoiler for the Democrat in a race that would otherwise by a toss-up.
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