jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 2, 2018 11:11:43 GMT
It would be interesting to see the focus groups on this, yes. The split ticketing is very positive, shows that people are actually looking at the candidates rather than simply voting a party line. True. In Baker's case he's continuing the tradition of moderate Republican governor who blocks Democratic excesses. The Democrats have veto proof majorities so he's essentially governing as a moderate Democrat; socially liberal but please let's not tax people out of existence.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 2, 2018 16:59:37 GMT
It would be interesting to see the focus groups on this, yes. The split ticketing is very positive, shows that people are actually looking at the candidates rather than simply voting a party line. True. In Baker's case he's continuing the tradition of moderate Republican governor who blocks Democratic excesses. The Democrats have veto proof majorities so he's essentially governing as a moderate Democrat; socially liberal but please let's not tax people out of existence. Yes, he is a complete bona fide RINO as virtually all New England Republicans who can actually get elected and stay elected are. Indeed the Republican Party in New England bears no real relation to the party in the rest of the country. NB Maine is a different kettle of fish completely and the New England I refer to in this context doesn't include that state which really is a law unto itself.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 2, 2018 17:52:37 GMT
Yes, he is a complete bona fide RINO as virtually all New England Republicans who can actually get elected and stay elected are. Indeed the Republican Party in New England bears no real relation to the party in the rest of the country. NB Maine is a different kettle of fish completely and the New England I refer to in this context doesn't include that state which really is a law unto itself. New Hampshire Republicans are probably the other major exception (tho still often more moderate than other regions). Baker is the most RINOy along with Scott in Vermont. Case in point, his sky high approvals are actually better with Democrats than with Republicans.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Jun 2, 2018 19:34:48 GMT
So we've said that the New England Republicans bear no relation to the rest of the country except in three of the six New England states. Lol.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 3, 2018 5:09:59 GMT
I’m not sure if we aren’t being harsh on Maine GOPers; LePage is I think an exception rather than the rule, elected twice with the help of left-leaning Independent Eliot Cutler. He’s not had a particularly good relationship with Party colleagues in the State legislature, and Bruce Poliquin who won the Second Congressional District seems much closer to Susan Collins’ traditional New England Republicanism than to LePage’s Tea Party inspired brand.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 3, 2018 9:33:46 GMT
So we've said that the New England Republicans bear no relation to the rest of the country except in three of the six New England states. Lol. NH and Maine have been mentioned above, what is the other?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 3, 2018 9:37:13 GMT
So we've said that the New England Republicans bear no relation to the rest of the country except in three of the six New England states. Lol. NH and Maine have been mentioned above, what is the other? Connecticut can be a bit wobbly, remember they nominated that “I am not a witch” woman to run for the open Senate seat I think it was when Chris Dodd retired.
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Jun 3, 2018 10:08:13 GMT
NH and Maine have been mentioned above, what is the other? Connecticut can be a bit wobbly, remember they nominated that “I am not a witch” woman to run for the open Senate seat I think it was when Chris Dodd retired. Christine O'Donnell? I'm sure that was Delaware.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 3, 2018 10:10:53 GMT
Connecticut can be a bit wobbly, remember they nominated that “I am not a witch” woman to run for the open Senate seat I think it was when Chris Dodd retired. Christine O'Donnell? I'm sure that was Delaware. Yes, it was Biden’s seat wasn’t it; Connecticut was Linda McMahon from World Wrestling Experience (now head of the Small Business Administration).
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mondialito
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Post by mondialito on Jun 3, 2018 10:26:24 GMT
Christine O'Donnell? I'm sure that was Delaware. Yes, it was Biden’s seat wasn’t it; Connecticut was Linda McMahon from World Wrestling Experience (now head of the Small Business Administration). I forgot about McMahon's candidacy! Didn't WWE make references to her run in their plot line at the time?
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 3, 2018 10:38:32 GMT
Yes, it was Biden’s seat wasn’t it; Connecticut was Linda McMahon from World Wrestling Experience (now head of the Small Business Administration). I forgot about McMahon's candidacy! Didn't WWE make references to her run in their plot line at the time? I don’t know, my dad used to watch it, but I always preferred the Mick McManus/Giant Haystacks style on World of Sport on a Saturday. McMahon ran twice I think, both when Dodd and Lieberman retired?
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 3, 2018 11:35:55 GMT
So we've said that the New England Republicans bear no relation to the rest of the country except in three of the six New England states. Lol. Well I only picked out Maine which is a bit more 'wild country' than the rest of NE. I don't think the other NE states Republicans are out of line at all with each other.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jun 3, 2018 21:13:08 GMT
Yes, it was Biden’s seat wasn’t it; Connecticut was Linda McMahon from World Wrestling Experience (now head of the Small Business Administration). I forgot about McMahon's candidacy! Didn't WWE make references to her run in their plot line at the time? Very unlikely, due to electoral laws (the reruns of TV shows with Fred Thompson had to stop when Fred Thompson ran in the 2008 presidential primary, until he dropped out).
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 4, 2018 12:09:25 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 4, 2018 21:48:26 GMT
The Minnesota governor Democratic primary is turning into a mess. State rep Erin Murphy (Minneapolis metro) won the endorsement at the convention a couple of days ago. However, US rep Tim Walz (rural southern Minnesota) didn't really contest it so remained the favourite for the actual primary. At the same time, otherwise progressive and popular attorney general Lori Swanson lost the endorsement for re-election largely on the back of her past A+ rating from the NRA. She's now suddenly turned around and announced a run for governor. Not only that, but her running mate is retiring US rep Rick Nolan (rural northern Minnesota), who had previously endorsed Walz and seemed to be retiring from politics. Hard to say who will win. Walz was favourite as he was both reasonably progressive and from rural Minnesota. However, the Swanson and Nolan ticket will steal a significant number of rural voters and moderates who would have gone for Walz which helps Murphy. This race is anyways game now. On the positive side there's no shortage of quality candidates. On the other hand, at least 1 representative has given up their seat for nothing, leaving 2 toss-up districts that could cost the Democrats the US House of Representatives.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 5, 2018 11:04:30 GMT
There are primaries today in Alabama, California, Iowa, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
The really important state is California where the jungle primary / top two system threatens to deny Democrats some decent shots at pick ups. In the 39th (Open), 48th (Dana Rohrabacher) and 49th (Darrell Issa) the large number of Democrats running combined with both races have 2 credible GOP candidates means that it is possible that two GOP candidates proceed to the General election. There is also a slim possibility of this happening 50th (Duncan Hunter). In the Senate race Diane Feinstein is going to top the ballot and despite his apparent lack of support Kevin De Leon may well join her for a Dem v Dem contest in November. The GOP are doing better in the race for Governor with John Cox likely to make it through to the general election where he will lose to Gavin Newsom.
The GOP Senate primary in Montana is also very competitive with 4 fairly serious candidates running for the chance to face Jon Tester. State Auditor Matt Rossendale and County Judge Russ Fagg look to be the front runners. Both should be broadly acceptable to most GOP voters and will be competitive in November.
South Dakota has a very competitive GOP primary for Governor with Rep Kristi Noem and Attorney General Marty Jackly neck and neck in a recent poll. Noem announced her run way back in November 2016 and was considered prohibitive favourite, if she loses it will be a shocking defeat for someone who was highly regarded and considered to have a significant political future.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 5, 2018 12:21:18 GMT
The Minnesota governor Democratic primary is turning into a mess. State rep Erin Murphy (Minneapolis metro) won the endorsement at the convention a couple of days ago. However, US rep Tim Walz (rural southern Minnesota) didn't really contest it so remained the favourite for the actual primary. At the same time, otherwise progressive and popular attorney general Lori Swanson lost the endorsement for re-election largely on the back of her past A+ rating from the NRA. She's now suddenly turned around and announced a run for governor. Not only that, but her running mate is retiring US rep Rick Nolan (rural northern Minnesota), who had previously endorsed Walz and seemed to be retiring from politics. Hard to say who will win. Walz was favourite as he was both reasonably progressive and from rural Minnesota. However, the Swanson and Nolan ticket will steal a significant number of rural voters and moderates who would have gone for Walz which helps Murphy. This race is anyways game now. On the positive side there's no shortage of quality candidates. On the other hand, at least 1 representative has given up their seat for nothing, leaving 2 toss-up districts that could cost the Democrats the US House of Representatives. I’ve got a very good friend who after Saturday’s Convention resigned from the DFL Executive in Walz’s Congressional District, as did the Chair, both to work on Nolan’s campaign. The feeling amongst Walz’s camp is that Swanson is a spoiler, going after Murphy before withdrawing and endorsing Walz. Murphy is thought to be basically just being difficult because she desperately wanted Al Franken’s Senate seat, and Is miffed because Dayton ruled her out without interviewing her, but her voting record in the State House is less than stellar, and the Sanders PAC have thus far refused to endorse her. She’s also potentially going to earn the opposition of gun control groups as she voted against an assault weapons ban on school campuses. Nolan would have retired anyway, his daughter is terminally ill (has apparently already outlived her prognosis) and he didn’t want to be leaving Minnesota on a weekly basis to be in DC. The other conventional wisdom is that Walz is sitting on a ton of cash that dwarves(dwarfs?) anything the other two can raise.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 5, 2018 12:53:38 GMT
The feeling amongst Walz’s camp is that Swanson is a spoiler, going after Murphy before withdrawing and endorsing Walz. I would have assumed that Swanson + Nolan would take more from Walz than Murphy? And it seems a sad end(?) to Swanson's political career to just run as a spoiler when she would still have probably won the primary for attorney general (less activist selectorate).
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 5, 2018 12:57:38 GMT
The feeling amongst Walz’s camp is that Swanson is a spoiler, going after Murphy before withdrawing and endorsing Walz. I would have assumed that Swanson + Nolan would take more from Walz than Murphy? And it seems a sad end(?) to Swanson's political career to just run as a spoiler when she would still have probably won the primary for attorney general (less activist selectorate). It seems an odd move by Swanson as she won the first round of voting at the convention on Saturday 52-48 but then immediately withdrew and endorsed her opponent. A suggestion doing the rounds is that Keith Ellison will give up his House seat to run for Attorney General and Swanson will run for his House seat. Given that today is filing deadline day we’ll know soon enough.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 5, 2018 13:00:34 GMT
It seems an odd move by Swanson as she won the first round of voting at the convention on Saturday 52-48 but then immediately withdrew and endorsed her opponent. A suggestion doing the rounds is that Keith Ellison will give up his House seat to run for Attorney General and Swanson will run for his House seat. Given that today is filing deadline day we’ll know soon enough. This is all very bizarre. Oh well, should at least settle down in a few days after the filing deadline when things become clearer.
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