Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Jun 6, 2018 0:42:44 GMT
Anyone interested in the primaries tonight can find the results here as they trickle in: link
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Izzyeviel
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Post by Izzyeviel on Jun 6, 2018 2:46:27 GMT
Something to look out for. Also squeaky bum time for the Democrats in three CA Seats: 10, 39, and 48...
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 6, 2018 8:34:53 GMT
Gonna be a little longer before this is a certainty, but Democrats look to have avoided lock out in every California primary. Republicans are on track to be locked out in 10/53 districts along with the Senate. Will take weeks, particularly for LA county (election fuck up), before all the ballots are counted, and the Election Day votes are almost always better for Democrats. Will post later when more ballots are counted.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 6, 2018 8:46:41 GMT
Democrats have taken a seat off the Republicans in the Missouri State Senate - district 17, which went narrowly for Trump in 2016. It has voted for Democrats in some other contests but last night it was nearly 60-40.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 6, 2018 9:07:42 GMT
Democrats have taken a seat off the Republicans in the Missouri State Senate - district 17, which went narrowly for Trump in 2016. It has voted for Democrats in some other contests but last night it was nearly 60-40. However there was a successful recall against a Democratic State Senator in California, meaning the Party has lost its supermajority in the legislature.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 6, 2018 11:57:14 GMT
Gonna be a little longer before this is a certainty, but Democrats look to have avoided lock out in every California primary. Republicans are on track to be locked out in 10/53 districts along with the Senate. Will take weeks, particularly for LA county (election fuck up), before all the ballots are counted, and the Election Day votes are almost always better for Democrats. Will post later when more ballots are counted. The Democrats appear to have been locked out in the 8th district but since this is a safe GOP district that doesn't really matter. Unless there are some bizarre swings with mail in ballots the Democrats are safe everywhere else although they had a couple of close shaves in the 10th and 49th. The former saw a GOP candidate who didn't report spending any money get over 14% and nearly edge out the top of 5 Democrats. In the Senate race Feinstein polled 44% with De Leon coming second with an underwhelming 11%. The general election looks like being pretty one sided.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 6, 2018 12:12:57 GMT
Underwhelming to say the least. Feinstein will end up less than 5% below what she got in 2012 despite facing what was supposed to be a credible challenge. Part of the problem was that many pollsters only named Feinstein and De Leon or those 2 along with a Republican. This non-Feinstein vote coalesced around De Leon in these polls which made him look a lot more popular than he actually was with the full ballot. Be interesting to see if he can beat Loretta Sanchez's 2016 performance.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 6, 2018 12:29:13 GMT
Underwhelming to say the least. Feinstein will end up less than 5% below what she got in 2012 despite facing what was supposed to be a credible challenge. Part of the problem was that many pollsters only named Feinstein and De Leon or those 2 along with a Republican. This non-Feinstein vote coalesced around De Leon in these polls which made him look a lot more popular than he actually was with the full ballot. Be interesting to see if he can beat Loretta Sanchez's 2016 performance. You have to assume that a decent chunk of Sanchez's vote came Republicans supporting the more conservative of the two Democratic candidates. Most of those voters will be going for Feinstein this time so unless De Leon can make a breakthrough with Democrat voters he could end up getting a real drubbing. He seems to have thought that just being to the left of Feinstein would result in a surge of support for him but he has badly underestimated just how deeply entrenched Feinstein is.
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Post by jamie on Jun 6, 2018 15:45:31 GMT
You have to assume that a decent chunk of Sanchez's vote came Republicans supporting the more conservative of the two Democratic candidates. Most of those voters will be going for Feinstein this time so unless De Leon can make a breakthrough with Democrat voters he could end up getting a real drubbing. He seems to have thought that just being to the left of Feinstein would result in a surge of support for him but he has badly underestimated just how deeply entrenched Feinstein is. I think De Leon could do alright with Republicans simply off the back of not being Feinstein. While she is more moderate, I don't really see her brand of liberalism appealing to Republicans and she is more well known than Harris was in 2016 so a lot of Republicans will automatically vote for any other candidate, especially if they don't really know De Leon.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 6, 2018 16:46:52 GMT
You have to assume that a decent chunk of Sanchez's vote came Republicans supporting the more conservative of the two Democratic candidates. Most of those voters will be going for Feinstein this time so unless De Leon can make a breakthrough with Democrat voters he could end up getting a real drubbing. He seems to have thought that just being to the left of Feinstein would result in a surge of support for him but he has badly underestimated just how deeply entrenched Feinstein is. I think De Leon could do alright with Republicans simply off the back of not being Feinstein. While she is more moderate, I don't really see her brand of liberalism appealing to Republicans and she is more well known than Harris was in 2016 so a lot of Republicans will automatically vote for any other candidate, especially if they don't really know De Leon. De León won’t have any appeal to Republicans; Feinstein’s negatives amongst “progressives” will be positives to Republicans - voted to authorise the Iraq War, very collaborative on the Intelligence Committee, opposes single payer healthcare, is very reluctant to overly criticise Trump. But the most likely scenario is most Republicans vote for Cox in the Governor’s election and their House candidate whilst skipping the Senate ballot altogether. I think that was evidenced by Cox getting considerable outside help whilst Bradley, the leading Republican in the Senate Primary was largely left to fend for himself, the thinking being it was vital not to get blanked from both the marquee races, and the Governors being the most likely to finish in the top two.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 6, 2018 19:08:09 GMT
De León won’t have any appeal to Republicans; Feinstein’s negatives amongst “progressives” will be positives to Republicans - voted to authorise the Iraq War, very collaborative on the Intelligence Committee, opposes single payer healthcare, is very reluctant to overly criticise Trump. But the most likely scenario is most Republicans vote for Cox in the Governor’s election and their House candidate whilst skipping the Senate ballot altogether. I think that was evidenced by Cox getting considerable outside help whilst Bradley, the leading Republican in the Senate Primary was largely left to fend for himself, the thinking being it was vital not to get blanked from both the marquee races, and the Governors being the most likely to finish in the top two. I think Feinstein very strong views on guns alone will sink her with a large chunk of Republicans who could have backed her. She should get the genuinely moderate and less partisan Republican vote, but a lot of the core Republican vote could back De Leon. It's not so much De Leon has an appeal so much as they already hate Feinstein, and De Leon's very lacklustre/low key campaign so far doesn't suggest that voters will necessary even get to know him well enough to form a negative opinion and therefore could vote for him as the non-Feinstein candidate. But I agree that a big chunk will just leave the ballot paper blank for this race in the end.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 6, 2018 23:06:12 GMT
De León won’t have any appeal to Republicans; Feinstein’s negatives amongst “progressives” will be positives to Republicans - voted to authorise the Iraq War, very collaborative on the Intelligence Committee, opposes single payer healthcare, is very reluctant to overly criticise Trump. But the most likely scenario is most Republicans vote for Cox in the Governor’s election and their House candidate whilst skipping the Senate ballot altogether. I think that was evidenced by Cox getting considerable outside help whilst Bradley, the leading Republican in the Senate Primary was largely left to fend for himself, the thinking being it was vital not to get blanked from both the marquee races, and the Governors being the most likely to finish in the top two. I think Feinstein very strong views on guns alone will sink her with a large chunk of Republicans who could have backed her. She should get the genuinely moderate and less partisan Republican vote, but a lot of the core Republican vote could back De Leon. It's not so much De Leon has an appeal so much as they already hate Feinstein, and De Leon's very lacklustre/low key campaign so far doesn't suggest that voters will necessary even get to know him well enough to form a negative opinion and therefore could vote for him as the non-Feinstein candidate. But I agree that a big chunk will just leave the ballot paper blank for this race in the end. The gun nuts won't vote Feinstein or De Leon but moderate suburban Republicans, of which there are quite a few in California, will likely vote for Feinstein in significant numbers. You do however raise the problem for De Leon. If he runs a good campaign and becomes better known he will probably increase his vote from the left but by doing so he will also convince more Republicans to back Feinstein.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 6, 2018 23:30:09 GMT
Looking at house races there are 7 GOP held seats that Clinton carried in 2016 and these are the obvious pick up chances for the Democrats. There was no primary in the 21st district because Rep David Valadao (R) and TJ Cox (D) are the only two candidates and so both advance to the general election. In the other 6 seats the percentage of votes case for each party was as follows
10th (Jeff Denham): GOP 52.1, Dem 47.9 25th (Steve Knight): GOP 52.8, Dem 47.2 39th (Ed Royce - OPEN): GOP 54.1, Dem 44.2, Other 1.8 45th (Mimi Walters): GOP 53.2, Dem 44.4, Other 2.4 48th (Dana Rohrabacher): GOP 53.8, Dem 45.4, Other 0.8 [Rohrabacher only polled 30.3%] 49th (Darrell Issa - OPEN): Dem 50.4, GOP 48.3, Other 1.3
Given that the Democrats have consistently under performed in primaries in California I would suggest that the 49th now looks to lean towards the Democrats, that the 10th, 25th and 48th are genuine toss ups with perhaps the most slight Democratic tilts, that the 39th has a slight GOP tilt and that the 45th leans towards the GOP.
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iain
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Post by iain on Jun 6, 2018 23:32:29 GMT
Looking at house races there are 7 GOP held seats that Clinton carried in 2016 and these are the obvious pick up chances for the Democrats. There was no primary in the 21st district because Rep David Valadao (R) and TJ Cox (D) are the only two candidates and so both advance to the general election. In the other 6 seats the percentage of votes case for each party was as follows 10th (Jeff Denham): GOP 52.1, Dem 47.9 25th (Steve Knight): GOP 52.8, Dem 47.2 39th (Ed Royce - OPEN): GOP 54.1, Dem 44.2, Other 1.8 45th (Mimi Walters): GOP 53.2, Dem 44.4, Other 2.4 48th (Dana Rohrabacher): GOP 53.8, Dem 45.4, Other 0.8 [Rohrabacher only polled 30.3%] 49th (Darrell Issa - OPEN): Dem 50.4, GOP 48.3, Other 1.3 Given that the Democrats have consistently under performed in primaries in California I would suggest that the 49th now looks to lean towards the Democrats, that the 10th, 25th and 48th are genuine toss ups with perhaps the most slight Democratic tilts, that the 39th has a slight slight GOP tilt and that the 45th leans towards the GOP. I have read elsewhere that the ballots coming in over the next couple of weeks tend to favour Democrats (and will make up a substantial amount of the total votes cast) so those Republican margins should shrink further.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 6, 2018 23:36:50 GMT
Looking at house races there are 7 GOP held seats that Clinton carried in 2016 and these are the obvious pick up chances for the Democrats. There was no primary in the 21st district because Rep David Valadao (R) and TJ Cox (D) are the only two candidates and so both advance to the general election. In the other 6 seats the percentage of votes case for each party was as follows 10th (Jeff Denham): GOP 52.1, Dem 47.9 25th (Steve Knight): GOP 52.8, Dem 47.2 39th (Ed Royce - OPEN): GOP 54.1, Dem 44.2, Other 1.8 45th (Mimi Walters): GOP 53.2, Dem 44.4, Other 2.4 48th (Dana Rohrabacher): GOP 53.8, Dem 45.4, Other 0.8 [Rohrabacher only polled 30.3%] 49th (Darrell Issa - OPEN): Dem 50.4, GOP 48.3, Other 1.3 Given that the Democrats have consistently under performed in primaries in California I would suggest that the 49th now looks to lean towards the Democrats, that the 10th, 25th and 48th are genuine toss ups with perhaps the most slight Democratic tilts, that the 39th has a slight slight GOP tilt and that the 45th leans towards the GOP. I have read elsewhere that the ballots coming in over the next couple of weeks tend to favour Democrats (and will make up a substantial amount of the total votes cast) so those Republican margins should shrink further. Based on previous elections they will probably shrink a bit and I have factored this into my ratings. Of course it should be emphasised that all of these races are competitive and a lot can happen over the next 5 months.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2018 23:43:42 GMT
My great aunt will be voting Republican (United Russia) in the 48th as usual.
Mr. Rochrabacher loves to spout off in my area of expertise - patent law. Of course his views are ill considered baloney.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 7, 2018 14:49:21 GMT
Democrats had higher turnout in 11/12 New Jersey districts. The sole Republican one was the 5th which narrowly went for Trump but had an uncontested Democratic incumbent. Statewide almost 2/3 of votes were for Democrats compared to the usual ~55%. Obviously Democrats will not take all 12 in November, but there's 3 districts that they probably need for a House majority and 2 of them are open and had competitive primaries so higher turnout at this stage is a good sign for them.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 7, 2018 16:48:01 GMT
Looking at house races there are 7 GOP held seats that Clinton carried in 2016 and these are the obvious pick up chances for the Democrats. There was no primary in the 21st district because Rep David Valadao (R) and TJ Cox (D) are the only two candidates and so both advance to the general election. In the other 6 seats the percentage of votes case for each party was as follows 10th (Jeff Denham): GOP 52.1, Dem 47.9 25th (Steve Knight): GOP 52.8, Dem 47.2 39th (Ed Royce - OPEN): GOP 54.1, Dem 44.2, Other 1.8 45th (Mimi Walters): GOP 53.2, Dem 44.4, Other 2.4 48th (Dana Rohrabacher): GOP 53.8, Dem 45.4, Other 0.8 [Rohrabacher only polled 30.3%] 49th (Darrell Issa - OPEN): Dem 50.4, GOP 48.3, Other 1.3 Given that the Democrats have consistently under performed in primaries in California I would suggest that the 49th now looks to lean towards the Democrats, that the 10th, 25th and 48th are genuine toss ups with perhaps the most slight Democratic tilts, that the 39th has a slight GOP tilt and that the 45th leans towards the GOP. Some more number crunching of California by Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics (Larry Sabato’s outfit): www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/democrats-seem-to-pass-the-top-two-test/
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 13, 2018 10:33:02 GMT
Some ructions in Nevada in State Assembly district 36. Incumbent Republican James Oscarson lost his primary to Dennis Hof, who is the largest owner of licensed brothels in the state (Nevada being Nevada, they are all legal).
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 13, 2018 11:58:21 GMT
Republican Representative Mark Sanford, who some may remember disappearing to Argentina for an affair in 2009 while governor, has finally been defeated. However, he only lost his the South Carolina 1st district primary due to his lack of support for Trump, rather than the affair bit.
In Virginia 10th district, state senator Jennifer Wexton comfortably beat her well funded and viral rivals in the Democratic primary. Meanwhile, incumbent representative Barbara Comstock only got 60% of the primary vote against a weak conservative challenger in a district that is packed with Washington DC moderate suburbia. She won reelection by 6% in 2016 as Clinton won by 10%, but she doesn't seem that strong of a personal vote going by that primary result (she's not particularly moderate either). Republicans lost House of Delegates seats in this district last year and Northam carried this ancestrally Repulican district by 14%. Even if Democrats don't take the House it's hard to see this district not falling pretty easily.
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