Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2017 0:34:38 GMT
Virginia has an open primary where voters can vote in one of the primaries. Northam seems to have gotten a lot of votes from (what used to be) moderate NOVA Republicans, which then meant the GOP primary skewed more right than expected. Many other moderates likely just stayed home. All in all Stewart got much closer than expected.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2017 0:50:57 GMT
The Democratic turnout "going through the roof" clearly included a lot of usual Republicans.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2017 14:05:28 GMT
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nitory
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Post by nitory on Jun 14, 2017 15:18:05 GMT
Wonder where in the state Perriello used to represent? 🤔 Shocking on the R side Stewart carried the suburban 10 th and 11 th districts.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 14, 2017 15:23:07 GMT
Wonder where in the state Perriello used to represent? 🤔 Shocking on the R side Stewart carried the suburban 10th and 11th districts. I wouldn't call it shocking. It is the effect of GOP moderates voting in the Dem primary or staying home. Trump supporting Ed Gillespie is not a man that inspires either loyalty or enthusiasm in the suburbs. Yes, Periello did well in his old 5th district, but also in the neighboring 6th.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 16, 2017 15:27:08 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2017 8:00:55 GMT
A new low...
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2017 15:34:11 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 19, 2017 21:56:52 GMT
Looks like the dirty campaign worked..
EDIT: They significantly underpolled Ossoff in the 1st round, so maybe not..
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 20, 2017 22:48:33 GMT
Polls close in just over 10 minutes in almost all precincts for the Georgia special election (and also in the South Carolina special election).
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 20, 2017 23:04:25 GMT
Ad for Tuesday's election in Georgia The spending in this ad was all but non existent. It wasn't a serious campaign ad, just a way of impressing elements of the base who no doubt watched this over and over again online.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 20, 2017 23:07:03 GMT
Looks like the dirty campaign worked.. Graphic removedEDIT: They significantly underpolled Ossoff in the 1st round, so maybe not.. Trafalgar are a GOP firm who largely engage in narrative polling. If they get the result right it will be a fluke.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jun 20, 2017 23:13:10 GMT
For what it's worth I think Ossoff will edge this. The GOP tactics have been dubious at best and while such tactics have played well in Georgia before it is hard to see them working here in one of the top 10 most educated districts in the country. That being said this has been an extraordinary campaign with immense spending on both sides that has smashed all records for a house race so a Handal win wouldn't be surprising.
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Jun 20, 2017 23:43:12 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2017 23:46:41 GMT
Looking good for the GOP.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2017 0:52:26 GMT
Politico update:
"In fully reporting precincts on June 20, Republican Karen Handel has 48.6 precent of the vote, and Democrat Jon Ossoff has 51.4 percent of the vote. Handel is running 2.3 points behind where Republicans ran in those precincts in April. Ossoff is running 2.3 points ahead of where Democrats ran in those precincts in the primary."
And Parnell is clearly over performing expectations. I.e. Union County had a 20-point Democratic swing from the presidential result.
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Post by lancastrian on Jun 21, 2017 23:33:33 GMT
Disastrous result for the Democrats, doing worse than Hilary. Few GOP representatives need worry about their seats in the midterms. Plenty of Democratic senators do.
It's incredible that they've failed to win a single seat when Trump is supposedly so unpopular. Maybe the truth is that he isn't unpopular at all.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2017 0:55:07 GMT
Disastrous result for the Democrats, doing worse than Hilary. Few GOP representatives need worry about their seats in the midterms. Plenty of Democratic senators do. It's incredible that they've failed to win a single seat when Trump is supposedly so unpopular. Maybe the truth is that he isn't unpopular at all. Its not "disastrous". It was a mistake to nationalize the race (but the Scalise shooting couldn't be predicted and the DNC doesn't control what donors prioritize). The vast majority of Romney-Clinton voters voted for Ossoff and if they do so in 2018 across the country the Democrats will pick up a lot of seats in places like Texas, California and Pennsylvania, but in the grand scheme of things I am not sure this poll in suburban Georgia is really indicative of much. The contested seats have all been in Conservative areas and the Democrats have generally improved their vote share - sometimes spectacularly so. There is no reason to question that Trump is unpopular, the question is how much it will affect other GOP candidates in 2018.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2017 7:08:44 GMT
The Democrats are as unpopular as Trump, maybe even slightly less. The party comes across as a single issue party concerned with just opposing Trump rather then talking about how they would improve the economy etc, which has coincided with the rise of Bernie and the ultra progressive left within the Democrats.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jun 22, 2017 11:01:30 GMT
Representative Jacky Rosen is going to run for the US Senate in Nevada next year. This is the sort of seat where Democrats need to win to have any chance of regaining the Senate (realistically 2020). This is the only Republican held Senate seat in a state won by Hillary Clinton up this year. The incumbent Republican Dean Heller only barely won in 2012 due to an abysmal Democratic opponent and his approval is underwater in many polls. Rosen is a 1st term Democrat in a district which very marginally went Trump after very marginally going for Obama in 2012. Like Heller in 2012, she only won due to a poor opponent, so it's possible she could actually be safer going for the Senate than running for re-election. Rosen was supposedly chosen because she's basically a blank slate and there's no one better. Before being elected in 2016, she was a Synagogue leader. apnews.com/4244e64a518449699e8168de55d762f8/APNewsBreak:-Nevada-House-member-plans-to-run-for-Senate
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