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Post by slicesofjim on May 23, 2019 21:14:08 GMT
Netherlands exit poll (IPSOS) Labour 5 seats (+2) Cristian Democrats : 4 (-1) People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 (+1) Greens Left 3 (+1) Forum for Democracy 3 (+3) D66 2 (-2) Party of Freedom 1 (-3) Socialist - 1 (-1) 50+ 1 (+1) Party for Animals 0 (-1) Turnout: 40% Seems like we keep our exit polls secret until Sunday night (if we have one) but other countries aren't doing the same thing. John Curtis said there wasn't the money for one. Plenty for programmes where slebs travel abroad though.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 23, 2019 21:28:43 GMT
Seems like we keep our exit polls secret until Sunday night (if we have one) but other countries aren't doing the same thing. John Curtis said there wasn't the money for one. Plenty for programmes where slebs travel abroad though. No exit poll means a more exciting election night.
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2019 21:42:15 GMT
Seems like we keep our exit polls secret until Sunday night (if we have one) but other countries aren't doing the same thing. John Curtis said there wasn't the money for one. Plenty for programmes where slebs travel abroad though. Curtice! Curtice!
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Post by Antiochian on May 23, 2019 22:05:32 GMT
If Turkish Cypriot s can vote where are the polling stations and who is manning them ? Who is paying them to man them who is collecting in the boxes and who is counting them ? Genuinely interested If there are polling stations being run by the TRNC on behalf of the Cypriot government then that is very significant . If Turks are free to vote if they travel to the South to vote then it is bolllocks There are scores of questions I could ask . Who determines eligibility to vote in the TRNC? Are Turkish candidates being offered interview time on TV Ironically maybe more Turkish Cypriots in the UK get to vote in MEP elections in the UK than they would in "Cyprus"...
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Post by mrpastelito on May 23, 2019 22:19:23 GMT
The % in the exit poll PvdA-S&D: 18% (+9) VVD-ALDE: 15% (+3) CDA-EPP: 12% (-2) FvD-ECR: 11% (+11) GL-G/EFA: 11% (+4) CU-SGP-ECR: 8% D66-ALDE: 6% (-9) PVV-ENF: 4% (-9) SP-LEFT: 4% (-6) 50+-EPP: 4% (+1) PvdD-LEFT: 4% Timmermans effect?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 22:28:29 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on May 23, 2019 22:36:51 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 23, 2019 22:38:37 GMT
Well, you could call it Expectation Management I suppose ...
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Post by Andrew_S on May 23, 2019 23:34:35 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 24, 2019 0:40:44 GMT
The UK government does it all the time when its peacekeeping. The current government of TRNC would have been overjoyed to let Cyprus set up polling stations. But the Cypriots dont want Turks getting elected. Nor do they want any normalisation.
It may well be overjoyed but international law declares it a non state. Any voting which took place there would be immediately challenged in a court for a start. turke would be over the moon and the Greeks would throw a wobbly.
A fair few GC's (especially the yoof who attend Uni outside the island and return) are eager for a degree of normalisation. The 5 families north and south, plus the greek orthodox church aint too keen.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on May 24, 2019 8:25:43 GMT
Projection done by GeenStijl blog based on results from 690 polling places. Picture from exit poll broadly confirmed
PvDA 6 seats (5 in the exit poll) VVD 4 (4) CDA 4 (4) FvD 3 (3) Greens 3 (3) CU SGP 2 (2) D66 2 (2) 50+ 1 (1) Party for Animals 1 (0) PS 0 (1) PVV 0 (1)
It is really close for 50+, Animals, Socialists and PVV regarding the threshold (100/26: 3.85%). They are projected to be in the 3.6-3.9% range
When Brexit take place, Netherlands will get 3 extra seats and threshold go down to 3.45% (100/29) and PS and PVV will get their seat (if they miss it this week).
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 24, 2019 8:59:05 GMT
The Sweden poll amuses me. Yesterday there was a piece on the Beeb about Roma, featuring a Swedish MEP from Feminist Initiative. She said it "wasn't practical" to work with the other Roma MEP, who is from Fidesz*. Well, courtesy of the Swedish electorate, she's about to find it even more impractical.
* Roma haven't done too badly under Fidesz, as Orban has found that he can exercise a bit of clientalism on them.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2019 14:00:21 GMT
The UK government does it all the time when its peacekeeping. The current government of TRNC would have been overjoyed to let Cyprus set up polling stations. But the Cypriots dont want Turks getting elected. Nor do they want any normalisation. While Akıncı is more reasonable and he'd probably be open, his party is virtually non-existant in the Assembly. He'd have to persuade the other parties, and the general public to agree to what would be a pretty major breach of TRNC sovereignity. If Akıncı was able to do this and the government still rejected, then you'd have a fair point.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2019 14:06:05 GMT
If Turkish Cypriot s can vote where are the polling stations and who is manning them ? Who is paying them to man them who is collecting in the boxes and who is counting them ? Genuinely interested If there are polling stations being run by the TRNC on behalf of the Cypriot government then that is very significant . If Turks are free to vote if they travel to the South to vote then it is bolllocks There are scores of questions I could ask . Who determines eligibility to vote in the TRNC? Are Turkish candidates being offered interview time on TV Ironically maybe more Turkish Cypriots in the UK get to vote in MEP elections in the UK than they would in "Cyprus"... That wouldn't really be surprising because there are more Turkish Cypriots in Britain than Cyprus. ~150,000 in Cyprus; 130,000 TRNC nationals in Britain, when you add descendents, it easily surpassed 150,000, estimates go as high as 400,000.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 24, 2019 21:48:33 GMT
Let's predict the transfer patterns!
To be elected
Dublin: 3 (4 after Brexit) South: 4 (5 after Brexit) Midlands etc: 4
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myth11
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too busy at work!
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Post by myth11 on May 24, 2019 22:21:12 GMT
If the exit polls are correct the greens have won a seat in Dublin as the Quota is 20% as the count is been done on a "after Brexit" seat count with the last elected not taking up their seat until after Brexit.
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Post by hiberno on May 24, 2019 22:39:18 GMT
If the exit polls are correct the greens have won a seat in Dublin as the Quota is 20% as the count is been done on a "after Brexit" seat count with the last elected not taking up their seat until after Brexit. Greens look like taking 3 seats nationwide, as likely as the Tories having no seats a while ago
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 24, 2019 22:50:49 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 25, 2019 13:14:36 GMT
Predicting the OutCome of the EP-election in Austria is since the Ibiza-video and the end of ÖVP&FPÖ difficult. In general FPÖ doesn't have those SPÖ/ÖVP-voters, who were born as such and would neverever elect another party (except perhaps 2-3% of traditional GermanNationals). As a result, they fell in the EP-election of 2004 to only 6.3%. On the other hand they had a basement of ~10% (2002; 2006), who were quite loyal; these have been increasing recently to ~15% and FPÖ has been able to "harden" this initially fluid crowd, to create its own distinct milieu (ex grege: Strache has had 800.000 FaceBook-followers!). So, if Strache had continued without any shame, FPÖ might have fallen below these 15%; as he stepped immediately down, 15% should be the party's low-limit (and the 35% in the PresidentialElection 2016 would be the maximum). If the GeneralElection was held tomorrow, i'd say, that FPÖ would probably end above 20%. In the EuropeanElection i guess, that while the rightradical (exSPÖ BlueCollars) wing around Kickl will be reenergized, many of the moderate wing around Hofer will be too hardbroken and stay at home (some will go to Kurz). So the FPÖ could end at 15-20%. ÖVP 35, SPÖ 25-30, NEOS and GREENS 5-10, PILZ 0-5.
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Hash
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Post by Hash on May 25, 2019 14:13:29 GMT
I realize that I often say that all French politicians are shit, and I still believe that, but I think you're being a bit unfair. On the right, I entirely disagree with François-Xavier Bellamy on nearly every issue and he is far, far too socially conservative/religious for me, but he's an intelligent, measured and fairly reasonable man (and, probably, a fairly nice guy). As a philosopher, his reflections on modern society are often quite good (even though I disagree with his political conclusions) or at least well thought-out. His calm, reasoned, intelligent and seemingly genuine demeanour is a welcome change from the rash, abrasive, opportunist and hypocrites we've seen leading the French right for over a decade now. Of course, because he's so calm and probably a bit shy, he's not cut out to be a successful politician in this cut-throat world and he doesn't impress in debates, since he doesn't take much space when all the loudmouths are interrupting one another. I would never vote LR, and once you look below the top 3 people on LR's list you see the same old right-wing deadwood like Morano and Hortefeux, but I respect Bellamy and wouldn't consider him to be shit (his party is another matter). Likewise, on the radical left, I disagree with the LFI cultists on most things, particularly EU-related, but Manon Aubry - also not a politician, although seemingly one who could 'make it' as one, unlike Bellamy - seems to be an intelligent and reasonable young woman - and, also, a far more reasonable and pleasant person than Mélenchon. She defends her ideas well, she speaks rather well and does not come off as a puppet of her leader. I would never vote LFI when there are other choices, and I'm not a fan of a lot of people on the list (too many Mélenchon stooges and hacks), but again I respect Manon Aubry. Not the biggest fan of Raphaël Glucksmann, who reminds me way too much of Michael Ignatieff for his own good (and hasn't really explained what the fuck he did in Georgia and Ukraine, and how/why he went from being a W. Bush neo-con cheerleader to a left-wing social democrat), but he's pleasantly surprised me during the campaign. He seems pretty intelligent, although he's not been particularly impressive in debates and doesn't really offer anyone a convincing reason to vote for him/the PS besides "Pedro Sánchez in Spain is cool/let's be like him". Yannick Jadot isn't the greatest, but he's been a very good, hardworking MEP - given how so many French MEPs take this as a way to scam the EU out of a salary while they're waiting for a better job offer and don't do shit (hi, RN MEPs!), I will always appreciate the MEPs (regardless of party) who actually show up, do real work and have something to show for themselves - who defends his ideas with passion and doesn't mince his words when it comes to the right/far-right's garbage. He's a good guy, intelligent and genuine. That being said, almost all of the remaining top candidates are pretty bad, ranking from a very loud 'meh' to 'crazy garbage'.
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