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Post by carlton43 on May 25, 2019 14:21:22 GMT
I realize that I often say that all French politicians are shit, and I still believe that, but I think you're being a bit unfair. On the right, I entirely disagree with François-Xavier Bellamy on nearly every issue and he is far, far too socially conservative/religious for me, but he's an intelligent, measured and fairly reasonable man (and, probably, a fairly nice guy). As a philosopher, his reflections on modern society are often quite good (even though I disagree with his political conclusions) or at least well thought-out. His calm, reasoned, intelligent and seemingly genuine demeanour is a welcome change from the rash, abrasive, opportunist and hypocrites we've seen leading the French right for over a decade now. Of course, because he's so calm and probably a bit shy, he's not cut out to be a successful politician in this cut-throat world and he doesn't impress in debates, since he doesn't take much space when all the loudmouths are interrupting one another. I would never vote LR, and once you look below the top 3 people on LR's list you see the same old right-wing deadwood like Morano and Hortefeux, but I respect Bellamy and wouldn't consider him to be shit (his party is another matter). Likewise, on the radical left, I disagree with the LFI cultists on most things, particularly EU-related, but Manon Aubry - also not a politician, although seemingly one who could 'make it' as one, unlike Bellamy - seems to be an intelligent and reasonable young woman - and, also, a far more reasonable and pleasant person than Mélenchon. She defends her ideas well, she speaks rather well and does not come off as a puppet of her leader. I would never vote LFI when there are other choices, and I'm not a fan of a lot of people on the list (too many Mélenchon stooges and hacks), but again I respect Manon Aubry. Not the biggest fan of Raphaël Glucksmann, who reminds me way too much of Michael Ignatieff for his own good (and hasn't really explained what the fuck he did in Georgia and Ukraine, and how/why he went from being a W. Bush neo-con cheerleader to a left-wing social democrat), but he's pleasantly surprised me during the campaign. He seems pretty intelligent, although he's not been particularly impressive in debates and doesn't really offer anyone a convincing reason to vote for him/the PS besides "Pedro Sánchez in Spain is cool/let's be like him". Yannick Jadot isn't the greatest, but he's been a very good, hardworking MEP - given how so many French MEPs take this as a way to scam the EU out of a salary while they're waiting for a better job offer and don't do shit (hi, RN MEPs!), I will always appreciate the MEPs (regardless of party) who actually show up, do real work and have something to show for themselves - who defends his ideas with passion and doesn't mince his words when it comes to the right/far-right's garbage. He's a good guy, intelligent and genuine. That being said, almost all of the remaining top candidates are pretty bad, ranking from a very loud 'meh' to 'crazy garbage'. Devil Wincarnate said "...they're all shit." You reply by saying "...I think you are being a bit unfair." Yet you introduce your piece by stating "...I often say all French politicians are shit, and I still believe that..."
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Smartie
Labour
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Posts: 782
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Post by Smartie on May 25, 2019 18:41:32 GMT
If the exit polls are correct the greens have won a seat in Dublin as the Quota is 20% as the count is been done on a "after Brexit" seat count with the last elected not taking up their seat until after Brexit. How can the Irish and the Dutch release exit polls but we cant?
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Post by curiousliberal on May 25, 2019 18:44:07 GMT
If the exit polls are correct the greens have won a seat in Dublin as the Quota is 20% as the count is been done on a "after Brexit" seat count with the last elected not taking up their seat until after Brexit. How can the Irish and the Dutch release exit polls but we cant? Because of British law pertaining to election results. Ours is stricter than that at the EU level.
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Post by John Chanin on May 25, 2019 19:25:43 GMT
The point is moot since no-one in the UK was prepared to pay for an exit poll.
Anyway what's the problem in waiting 3 days for the result?
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on May 25, 2019 19:56:26 GMT
It will be a blind guess for my patch, and my suspicion would be that the Pirates are seen as a relatively competent startup. I have not noticed any of the public infighting that happened in the Icelandic PP for instance, and all in all i tend to lean towards the Czech scenario and see them as gaining the largest share. Our natural party of government seems to have managed to notice that it wasn't any longer after the last Chamber vote, and their media have started with emitting decent hints that it would be nice not to forget voting for them. Otherwise the only political event i have picked up since last year's elections was the Brexit speech in the Chamber by our Foreign Affairs Minister around the start of the year, where he said he was considering a state of emergency in case of a chaotic outcome¹. Actually it was the job of the Prime Minister to make that speech, but he seems to rightly have estimated that his foreign minister was better at it. And here is the prediction of the (confessed) Luxembourgish member. 16.0% (+1.3) Lëscht 1: DP 12.5% (+8.3) Lëscht 2: Piraten 0.4% Lëscht 3: Déi Konservativ 1.0% (-0.5) Lëscht 4: KPL 6.7% (+0.9) Lëscht 5: déi Lénk 0.4% Lëscht 6: VOLT 16.0% (+1.0) Lëscht 7: déi gréng 12.5% (+0.8) Lëscht 8: LSAP 9.5% (+2.0) Lëscht 9: A.D.R. 25.0% (-12.7) Lëscht 10: CSV
3 seats for the CSPP, and 1 respectively for the Democrats, Greens, and Pirates, because the SWP tend to be the unlucky ones. Wikipedia has a specimen of the ballot paper: lb.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fichier:European_Parliament_election_2019_in_Luxembourg,_Ballot_paper.jpg[1] Likely because Luxembourg is roughly as closely interconnected with the UK as the Irish are in economic terms. More than 1% of the residents are UK citizens for instance.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Post by Vibe on May 25, 2019 20:13:44 GMT
If the exit polls are correct the greens have won a seat in Dublin as the Quota is 20% as the count is been done on a "after Brexit" seat count with the last elected not taking up their seat until after Brexit. How can the Irish and the Dutch release exit polls but we cant? And the BBC say they can't publish the exit polls!!! That is just stupid, especially as they are published all over the internet and our election is over.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
CJ Fox avatar
Posts: 1,067
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Post by Toylyyev on May 25, 2019 20:24:29 GMT
I realize that I often say that all French politicians are shit, and I still believe that, but I think you're being a bit unfair. On the right, I entirely disagree with François-Xavier Bellamy on nearly every issue and he is far, far too socially conservative/religious for me, but he's an intelligent, measured and fairly reasonable man (and, probably, a fairly nice guy). As a philosopher, his reflections on modern society are often quite good (even though I disagree with his political conclusions) or at least well thought-out. His calm, reasoned, intelligent and seemingly genuine demeanour is a welcome change from the rash, abrasive, opportunist and hypocrites we've seen leading the French right for over a decade now. Of course, because he's so calm and probably a bit shy, he's not cut out to be a successful politician in this cut-throat world and he doesn't impress in debates, since he doesn't take much space when all the loudmouths are interrupting one another. I would never vote LR, and once you look below the top 3 people on LR's list you see the same old right-wing deadwood like Morano and Hortefeux, but I respect Bellamy and wouldn't consider him to be shit (his party is another matter). Likewise, on the radical left, I disagree with the LFI cultists on most things, particularly EU-related, but Manon Aubry - also not a politician, although seemingly one who could 'make it' as one, unlike Bellamy - seems to be an intelligent and reasonable young woman - and, also, a far more reasonable and pleasant person than Mélenchon. She defends her ideas well, she speaks rather well and does not come off as a puppet of her leader. I would never vote LFI when there are other choices, and I'm not a fan of a lot of people on the list (too many Mélenchon stooges and hacks), but again I respect Manon Aubry. Not the biggest fan of Raphaël Glucksmann, who reminds me way too much of Michael Ignatieff for his own good (and hasn't really explained what the fuck he did in Georgia and Ukraine, and how/why he went from being a W. Bush neo-con cheerleader to a left-wing social democrat), but he's pleasantly surprised me during the campaign. He seems pretty intelligent, although he's not been particularly impressive in debates and doesn't really offer anyone a convincing reason to vote for him/the PS besides "Pedro Sánchez in Spain is cool/let's be like him". Yannick Jadot isn't the greatest, but he's been a very good, hardworking MEP - given how so many French MEPs take this as a way to scam the EU out of a salary while they're waiting for a better job offer and don't do shit (hi, RN MEPs!), I will always appreciate the MEPs (regardless of party) who actually show up, do real work and have something to show for themselves - who defends his ideas with passion and doesn't mince his words when it comes to the right/far-right's garbage. He's a good guy, intelligent and genuine. That being said, almost all of the remaining top candidates are pretty bad, ranking from a very loud 'meh' to 'crazy garbage'. Devil Wincarnate said "...they're all shit." You reply by saying "...I think you are being a bit unfair." Yet you introduce your piece by stating "...I often say all French politicians are shit, and I still believe that..." As i already have told one member, if you think UK politics is complicated, you better not try the French one. Here is one recommended introductory literature: www.malo-louarn.editionsptitlouis.fr/le-candidat/
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Post by timrollpickering on May 25, 2019 20:26:21 GMT
Is this another case of the EU drawing up a one-way opt-in scheme that some past UK minister nodded their head to in an eagerness to be seen as a good little Europeaner, then was out of office by the time it was implemented and their successor couldn't doing anything to extract us from the needless arrangements, whilst other EU countries who never signed up to the Eurobollocks in the first place just carried on as before?
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Post by carlton43 on May 25, 2019 21:25:00 GMT
Devil Wincarnate said "...they're all shit." You reply by saying "...I think you are being a bit unfair." Yet you introduce your piece by stating "...I often say all French politicians are shit, and I still believe that..." As i already have told one member, if you think UK politics is complicated, you better not try the French one. Here is one recommended introductory literature: www.malo-louarn.editionsptitlouis.fr/le-candidat/ My post has nothing at all to do with French politics. It is entirely about the odd contradiction and absurd post made by one of us.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,271
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Post by Sibboleth on May 25, 2019 22:26:08 GMT
Anyway what's the problem in waiting 3 days for the result? Particularly when it's for an election that is about 99% symbolic.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,114
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Post by Jack on May 25, 2019 22:27:31 GMT
Surely a site full of election nerds should be eager for election results, whatever they are?
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Post by Strontium Dog on May 26, 2019 0:02:49 GMT
How can the Irish and the Dutch release exit polls but we cant? Because of British law pertaining to election results. Ours is stricter than that at the EU level. But we can't make our own laws, I read it on a Leave campaign leaflet...
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,064
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Post by andrea on May 26, 2019 0:11:00 GMT
Partial results from Latvia
Slovakia is also counting right now
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,275
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Post by Tony Otim on May 26, 2019 7:41:30 GMT
Partial results from Latvia Slovakia is also counting right now Looks like JV have done a bit better than expected.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on May 26, 2019 8:38:23 GMT
Slovakia
PS/S (Progressive Slovakia, Liberals) 20.1%. - 4 seats (+4) SMER (Social Democrats) 15.7% - 3 seats (-1) LSNS (People's Party Our Slovakia) 12% -2 seats (+2) KDH (Christian Democrats) 9.7%. - 2 seats (=) SaS (Freedom and Solidarity) 9.6% - 2 seats (+1) OlENO (Ordinary People) 5.3% - 1 seats (=) SMK (Party of the Hungarian Community) 5%. 0 seat (-1) SNS (Slovak National Party) 4.1% 0 KU 3.8% 0 Sme Rodina (We Are Family) 3.8% 0 MosLH (Hungarian minority) 2.6% (-1)
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on May 26, 2019 8:48:47 GMT
90% reported in Latvia
JV- New Unity (EPP) 2 seats Social Democratic Party "Harmony" 2 seats NA (National Alliance, they are in ECR)- 1 seat API (Europhile Liberals) 1 seat LKS (Latvian Russian Union) 1 seat
Last seat in in play between: a second seat for NA, a seat for ZZS (Greesn and farmers) and a third seat for JV
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Post by Antiochian on May 26, 2019 8:53:59 GMT
Predicting the OutCome of the EP-election in Austria is since the Ibiza-video and the end of ÖVP&FPÖ difficult. In general FPÖ doesn't have those SPÖ/ÖVP-voters, who were born as such and would neverever elect another party (except perhaps 2-3% of traditional GermanNationals). As a result, they fell in the EP-election of 2004 to only 6.3%. On the other hand they had a basement of ~10% (2002; 2006), who were quite loyal; these have been increasing recently to ~15% and FPÖ has been able to "harden" this initially fluid crowd, to create its own distinct milieu (ex grege: Strache has had 800.000 FaceBook-followers!). So, if Strache had continued without any shame, FPÖ might have fallen below these 15%; as he stepped immediately down, 15% should be the party's low-limit (and the 35% in the PresidentialElection 2016 would be the maximum). If the GeneralElection was held tomorrow, i'd say, that FPÖ would probably end above 20%. In the EuropeanElection i guess, that while the rightradical (exSPÖ BlueCollars) wing around Kickl will be reenergized, many of the moderate wing around Hofer will be too hardbroken and stay at home (some will go to Kurz). So the FPÖ could end at 15-20%. ÖVP 35, SPÖ 25-30, NEOS and GREENS 5-10, PILZ 0-5. What's a GermanNational? A neo-Anschlusser??
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,516
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Post by The Bishop on May 26, 2019 9:34:35 GMT
It seems to me that the "rule" is that it is OK to publish exit polls before 10PM on Sunday (as said previously, we did just that in 1989) but not actual results?
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,064
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Post by andrea on May 26, 2019 9:49:56 GMT
Indications from Malta count according to PM Muscatt as he arrived to the count:
Labour 55% PN 37%
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Merseymike
Independent
Posts: 39,143
Member is Online
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Post by Merseymike on May 26, 2019 9:56:32 GMT
Indications from Malta count according to PM Muscatt as he arrived to the count: Labour 55% PN 37% For Malta that's an absolute walk over.
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