Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on May 20, 2019 11:20:49 GMT
Some country by country previews. Germany - 96 seatsWhether or not the UK MEPs are elected, Germany will remain with 96 MEPs. Plans to introduce a minimum vote threshold have also been scrapped, so the abundance of micro-parties could well continue. 2014 result: CDU/CSU (EPP) 34 seats (35.4%) SPD (PES) 27 seats (27.3%) Greens (G-EFA) 11 seats (10.7%) Linke (GUE-NGL) 7 seats (7.4%) AfD (ECR*^) 7 seats (7.0%) FDP (ALDE) 3 seats (3.4%) Freie Wahler (ALDE*) 1 seat (1.5%) Pirates (G-EFA*) 1 seat (1.5%) Tierschutzpartei (GUE-NGL*) 1 seat (1.3%) NPD (Non-inscrits) 1 seat (1.0%) Familie (ECR*) 1 seat (0.7%) ODP (Ecological Democratic Party) (G-EFA*) 1 seat (0.6%) Die Partei (Non-inscrit) 1 seat (0.6%) * Joined grouping post-election ^ Since 2014, the AfD grouping has split - 1 remains in AfD now aligned to EFDD, 5 remain in the ECR in the LKR (Liberal Conservative Reformers, although one of the 5 is now independent) and 1 is in the ENF with Die Blaue Partei. Polls would indicate SPD likely to be main losers with CDU/CSU also possibly down a few and Greens, AfD and FDP picking up seats UPDATE: I had somehow missed the little important detail that the Familie MEP subsequently defected to FW. Polling update: most polls now have the Greens in a clear second ahead of the SPD and maybe looking to pick up 7-8 seats. CDU are definitely down and may lose 3-5 seats. SPD could lose around 10. Linke are basically standing still. AfD are up on 2014, but level or a touch down on the last federal elections, probably looking at 2-4 gains. With a similar picture for FDP. Of the small parties, FW could get an extra MEP or maybe even 2, and the Pirates, Die Partei and Tierschutzpartei will probably hold. The others, difficult to say at the moment as I can't find many polls they're specified in.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 20, 2019 13:04:44 GMT
Tony Otim- there was an article in a magazine the other week (Stern I think) where a pollster said that lots of these parties are not being mentioned by anyone in their samples. I believe that anyone on for over 0.5% is getting a mention.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 20, 2019 13:18:55 GMT
If Turkish Cypriot s can vote where are the polling stations and who is manning them ? Who is paying them to man them who is collecting in the boxes and who is counting them ? Genuinely interested If there are polling stations being run by the TRNC on behalf of the Cypriot government then that is very significant . If Turks are free to vote if they travel to the South to vote then it is bolllocks There are scores of questions I could ask . Who determines eligibility to vote in the TRNC? Are Turkish candidates being offered interview time on TV They vote in the South if they have Republic of Cyprus documentation, or dual nationality. The editor of Afrika, a "lively" newspaper in the north is also a candidate. Incidentally Mr Levent was charged with upsetting the Great Sultan in Ankara, however a district judge threw the case out citing freedom of expression. As the TRNC is a non country then placing ballot boxes within it's jurisdiction is a no no. Especially to the raving lunatics of the far right in the south as it it will be another step toward de facto recognition (which let's face it is already creeping in).
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on May 20, 2019 13:29:18 GMT
Tony Otim- there was an article in a magazine the other week (Stern I think) where a pollster said that lots of these parties are not being mentioned by anyone in their samples. I believe that anyone on for over 0.5% is getting a mention. But as last time shows, it doesn't take much more than 0.5% to get a seat, so I'm not sure you can rule anyone out yet...
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on May 20, 2019 14:27:52 GMT
Some country by country previews. Germany - 96 seatsPolls would indicate SPD likely to be main losers with CDU/CSU also possibly down a few and Greens, AfD and FDP picking up seats UPDATE: I had somehow missed the little important detail that the Familie MEP subsequently defected to FW. . The Familie MEP had then left also FW. Now he is in Bundis C- Christen für Deutschland (top candidate in Euro list)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on May 20, 2019 20:01:30 GMT
FranceAll change - the voting system's changed, half of the parties have changed name and half of the MEPs elected last time have changed party or grouping. Results from 2014: Front National (FN) | (ENF) | 24.9% | 24 seats | Row 1 column 5 | UMP | (EPP) | 20.8% | 20 seats | Row 2 column 5 | PS + PRG | (S&D) | 14.0% | 13 seats | (12 PS, 1 PRG (Parti Radical de Gauche) | MoDem & UDI | (ALDE) | 9.9% | 7 seats | (4 MoDem, 1 New Centre, 1 AC (Centrist Alliance), 1 PR (Parti Radical)) | EELV | (G-EFA) | 9.0% | 6 seats |
| Front Gauche (FG) | (GUE/NGL) | 6.6% | 4 seats | (1 PCF (Communist), 1 PG (Left), 1 unaffiliated, 1 AO-M (Overseas Alliance) |
Currently these 74 MEPS sit in the following Groupings: EPP - 20 (16 LR (Les Republicains, new name for UMP), 2 Agir (la droite constructive - a breakaway from LR/UMP) and 2 Divers Droite) ENF - 15 (14 RN (Rassemblement National, new name for FN), 1 RBM ) S&D - 12 (7 PS, 3 Generation.s (Hamon's breakaway), 1 LREM (Macron's lot), 1 PRG) ALDE - 7 (2 MoDem, 2 RM, 1 UDI, 1 LREM, 1 Generation Citoyens) G-EFA- 6 (5 EELV, 1 Divers Ecologie) EFDD - 6 (2 DLF (Debout la France, formerly Debout La Republique, Dupont-Aignan's lot), 2 LP (Les Patriots, FN splinter), 1 Les France Libres, 1 Independents (all are ex-FN)) GUE-NGL - 5 (2 PCF, 1 FG, 1 AO-M, 1 Mouvement Republicain et Citoyen) Non- Incrits - 3 (1 RN, 1 Ind and 1 Comites Jeanne) For 2019, France is moving from regional constituencies to a national list with a 5% threshold. MoDem have continued their alliance with Macron's En Marche (LREM) but UDI are going their own way meaning a likely wipeout. The Communists are also going their own way from Melanchon's France Insoumise (the new Front Gauche). Whilst the UK remains France stays on 74 seats, but will gain an extra 5 if the UK leaves. Polling indicates that it will be tight between LREM and RN for first place, both should get about 20ish seats. LR look like coming third, losing a handful of seats compared to 2014. EELV and FI will almost certainly make the quota and maybe gain 1 or 2 seats compared to 2014, whilst PS look like just scraping in with a few seats, whilst Hamon's Generation.s look like missing out. DLF are right on the cusp in most polls, whether they make it or not could affect the seat numbers for the parties above. So, from recent polling it looks like PS will sneak in above the threshold, maybe holding 4 seats, but DLF won't. The most recent polls have RN in a very narrow lead over LREM, but they have underperformed their polling in the past, so I'd say still 50-50 who comes top. They are, in any case according to the polls, a touch down in votes and probably seats compared to 2014. LR could lose around 8 seats, EELV could gain a seat on a slightly reduced voteshare, whilst FI could double FG's representation from last time.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 20, 2019 20:08:11 GMT
I receive emails from the PCF so you don't have to. Why to vote for the PCF...
Raison n°1 : un parti qui ne s’est pas trompé sur l’Europe
Raison n°2 : le solide bilan des eurodéputés PCF sortants
Raison n°3 : la seule liste qui compte 50% d’ouvriers et d’employés
Raison n°4 : la liste qui permet d’élire quatre eurodéputés de gauche qui ne lâcheront rien
Raison n°5 : la perspective de reconstruire une gauche rassembleuse
Raison n°6 : la belle surprise de la campagne !
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,276
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Post by andrea on May 20, 2019 20:35:25 GMT
I receive emails from the PCF so you don't have to. Why to vote for the PCF... Raison n°1 : un parti qui ne s’est pas trompé sur l’Europe
Raison n°2 : le solide bilan des eurodéputés PCF sortants
Raison n°3 : la seule liste qui compte 50% d’ouvriers et d’employés
Raison n°4 : la liste qui permet d’élire quatre eurodéputés de gauche qui ne lâcheront rien
Raison n°5 : la perspective de reconstruire une gauche rassembleuse
Raison n°6 : la belle surprise de la campagne !they took a bit more effort in the offical material, even if they didn't manage to find a 6h point. You have to vote for them for Une vie digne, un travail qui paie (that's 1400 euros after tax for them) Le social et l’écologie au cœur (more transport by train. A single state can oppose EU decisions that lead to a regression of your living conditions) L’argent pour les services publics Produire en France Enfin, une vraie démocratie en Europe (cut Junker's salary by 3). Mind you, in relation to their point 3 in the email, among the candidates they advertise on the leaflet, I only count 1 and 1/2 overiers programme-candidats.interieur.gouv.fr/data-pdf-propagandes/28a8ff9a4ad46a2ed1e70ee951c0bd7c6efae88e6df96abc41a8b7a46bb96ea6-profession-de-foi.pdf
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on May 22, 2019 17:58:27 GMT
Tomorrow is voting day in the Netherlands Ireland vote on Friday Saturday: Slovakia, Malta and Latvia Czech Republic vote on Friday and Saturday Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyane, Saint-Barhélémy, Saint-Martin, Saint-Pierre et-Miquelon and Polynésie Française also vote on Saturday. Remaining countries vote on Sunday European Parliament electoral services are expected to collect estimates starting from 6PM with the following timetable: www.europarl.europa.eu/resources/library/media/20190521RES52073/20190521RES52073.pdf
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 22, 2019 20:03:42 GMT
So, the Muslims get to vote, if they have Greek Cypriot documentation, if they travel to the south to vote. Through Greek checkpoints with uniformed guards. Then they can vote for Greek Cypriot candidates. How will the UK avoid a descent into barbarism when we leave this bastion of liberal democracy? Not quite. There is Levent as mentioned above plus the AKEL candidate is a TC.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 22, 2019 20:11:17 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 0:59:30 GMT
Damned if you do, damned if you don't. If Turks were excluded from the vote, the criticism would be that they are being shut out; if they are included, then the criticism is that they have to travel to the checkpoints. The reason why voting is at the checkpoints is because the Cypriot government is unable to set up polling stations in the North.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 9:20:44 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on May 23, 2019 9:28:38 GMT
Apparently when Farage was at the corn exchange in Edinburgh the other day, McDonald's in the Add a next door had a sign up saying they had been requested not to sell milkshakes that day. Of course, this then prompted the nearest Burger King to put up a sign advertising they were still selling milkshakes.
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Post by finsobruce on May 23, 2019 9:38:13 GMT
Apparently when Farage was at the corn exchange in Edinburgh the other day, McDonald's in the Add a next door had a sign up saying they had been requested not to sell milkshakes that day. Of course, this then prompted the nearest Burger King to put up a sign advertising they were still selling milkshakes. Isn't the free market a wonderful thing?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 23, 2019 13:04:24 GMT
A government can't set up polling stations in territory it doesn't control.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 23, 2019 19:27:04 GMT
Netherlands exit poll (IPSOS)
Labour 5 seats (+2) Cristian Democrats : 4 (-1) People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 (+1) Greens Left 3 (+1) Forum for Democracy 3 (+3) D66 2 (-2) Christian Union-SGP 2 (=) Party of Freedom 1 (-3) Socialist - 1 (-1) 50+ 1 (+1) Party for Animals 0 (-1)
Turnout: 40%
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Post by Andrew_S on May 23, 2019 19:34:27 GMT
Netherlands exit poll (IPSOS) Labour 5 seats (+2) Cristian Democrats : 4 (-1) People's Party for Freedom and Democracy 4 (+1) Greens Left 3 (+1) Forum for Democracy 3 (+3) D66 2 (-2) Party of Freedom 1 (-3) Socialist - 1 (-1) 50+ 1 (+1) Party for Animals 0 (-1) Turnout: 40% Seems like we keep our exit polls secret until Sunday night (if we have one) but other countries aren't doing the same thing.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrea on May 23, 2019 19:47:24 GMT
The % in the exit poll
PvdA-S&D: 18% (+9) VVD-ALDE: 15% (+3) CDA-EPP: 12% (-2) FvD-ECR: 11% (+11) GL-G/EFA: 11% (+4) CU-SGP-ECR: 8% D66-ALDE: 6% (-9) PVV-ENF: 4% (-9) SP-LEFT: 4% (-6) 50+-EPP: 4% (+1) PvdD-LEFT: 4%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on May 23, 2019 21:01:26 GMT
The % in the exit poll PvdA-S&D: 18% (+9) VVD-ALDE: 15% (+3) CDA-EPP: 12% (-2) FvD-ECR: 11% (+11) GL-G/EFA: 11% (+4) CU-SGP-ECR: 8% D66-ALDE: 6% (-9) PVV-ENF: 4% (-9) SP-LEFT: 4% (-6) 50+-EPP: 4% (+1) PvdD-LEFT: 4% If those are accurate then FvD have seriously underperformed their polling - most recent polls had them in the lead ahead of VVD, IIRC. Would be a very good and slightly unexpected result for PvdA.
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