1992 exit polls were right

[greenchristian]

The 1992 BBC exit poll projected the following distribution of seats:
Conservative 301
Labour 298
Liberal Democrat 24
Others 28

If the result had turned out that way, what would have been the impact?

[Deleted]

Apr 9, 2017 21:14:08 GMT greenchristian said:

The 1992 BBC exit poll projected the following distribution of seats:
Conservative 301
Labour 298
Liberal Democrat 24
Others 28

If the result had turned out that way, what would have been the impact?

Another general election in Autumn 1992.

[carlton43]

Thread closed!

[Andrew_S]

ITN/Harris exit poll:

Con 41%
Lab 37%
LD 18%
Others 4%

Con 305
Lab 294
LD 25
Others 27

[Harry Hayfield]

According to Mark Pack's database of polls the exit polls were:
BBC: Con 40%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 6%
ITN: Con 41%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 5%
Sky: Lab 41%, Con 38%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 3%

So taking an average we get Con 40%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 4% which according to Electoral Calculus gives us Lab 307, Con 295, Lib Dem 25, Others 24 (Lab short by 19) so therefore you would have a Lab / Lib Dem confidence and supply agreement until at least the autumn where a constitutional convention document would have been published outlining electoral reform. After that, anyone's guess.

[No Offence Alan]

May 3, 2017 16:18:12 GMT swanarcadian said:

Apr 9, 2017 21:14:08 GMT greenchristian said:

The 1992 BBC exit poll projected the following distribution of seats:
Conservative 301
Labour 298
Liberal Democrat 24
Others 28

If the result had turned out that way, what would have been the impact?

Another general election in Autumn 1992.

With Portillo as Conservative leader?

[Deleted]

May 3, 2017 22:03:14 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

According to Mark Pack's database of polls the exit polls were:
BBC: Con 40%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 6%
ITN: Con 41%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 5%
Sky: Lab 41%, Con 38%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 3%

So taking an average we get Con 40%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 4% which according to Electoral Calculus gives us Lab 307, Con 295, Lib Dem 25, Others 24 (Lab short by 19) so therefore you would have a Lab / Lib Dem confidence and supply agreement until at least the autumn where a constitutional convention document would have been published outlining electoral reform. After that, anyone's guess.

By my admittedly dodgy arithmetic if you average a 4, 5 and 3 point lead you don't come to a 2 point lead.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 4, 2017 7:10:34 GMT joe said:

May 3, 2017 22:03:14 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

According to Mark Pack's database of polls the exit polls were:
BBC: Con 40%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 6%
ITN: Con 41%, Lab 36%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 5%
Sky: Lab 41%, Con 38%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 3%

So taking an average we get Con 40%, Lab 38%, Lib Dem 18%, Others 4% which according to Electoral Calculus gives us Lab 307, Con 295, Lib Dem 25, Others 24 (Lab short by 19) so therefore you would have a Lab / Lib Dem confidence and supply agreement until at least the autumn where a constitutional convention document would have been published outlining electoral reform. After that, anyone's guess.

By my admittedly dodgy arithmetic if you average a 4, 5 and 3 point lead you don't come to a 2 point lead.

You do if you average a 4 point lead a 5 point lead and a 3 point deficit though

[Deleted]

May 4, 2017 7:14:34 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 4, 2017 7:10:34 GMT joe said:

By my admittedly dodgy arithmetic if you average a 4, 5 and 3 point lead you don't come to a 2 point lead.

You do if you average a 4 point lead a 5 point lead and a 3 point deficit though

I did say it was dodgy! Apologies Mr. Hayfield.

[afleitch]

The seat projections were based on the differentials within voters polled in key marginals. Best thing to do is 'Backwards Baxter' from the 1992 results. Based on BBC/ITN of:

Con 40.5
Lab 36
Lib 18

You do actually end up with CON 309, LAB 295, LIB 23. Tories would probably hobble along with Ulster Unionists until they can call a further GE.