Chile General Election 2017

[Devil Wincarnate]

Blimey, Bachelet really has annoyed people!

[Deleted]

This thread needs a poll. 

[Deleted]

Eight candidates approved:

Fmr. President Sebastian Piñera (Chile Vamos)
Sen. Alejandro Guiller (Nueva Mayoria)
Beatriz Sanchez (Frente Amplio)
Sen. Carolina Goic (Democracia Cristiana)
Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO)
Dep. Jose Antonio Kast (Indie)
Eduardo Artes (Union Patriotica)
Sen. Alejandro Navarro (Pais)

Most of the minor candidates withdrew, Roxana Miranda (ANDHA) and the two independents Carola Canelo and Marcel Claude didn't make the cut. 

[Antiochian]

Considering that most Chileans in Antipodean parts (as are those in places like Montreal) were refugees from the Pinochet regime, it's surprising that Piñera is doing so well.

[finsobruce]

Nov 19, 2017 11:29:23 GMT Antiochian said:

Considering that most Chileans in Antipodean parts (as are those in places like Montreal) were refugees from the Pinochet regime, it's surprising that Piñera is doing so well.

It's quite a long time ago now though isn't it? presumably a lot voting will have grown up entirely under a benevolent democracy and will have different personal politics even though they understand the history.

[Deleted]

Results from Chile itself starting to come in. Official results here

www.servelelecciones.cl/

[Deleted]

Nov 19, 2017 22:07:02 GMT @pjones said:

Results from Chile itself starting to come in. Official results here

www.servelelecciones.cl/

As expected it will be Guiller and Pinera in the second round. With 81.75% of votes counted its

Pinera 36.67
Guiller 22.64
Sanchez 20.34
Kast 7.88
Goic 5.91
Enriquez- Ominami 5.68
Artes 0.51
Navarro 0.37

I've reset the thread poll

[Georg Ebner]

No shifts with 99.?% counted (good to know for the RunOff).
Those polls, which had Pinera at/above 40%, always looked fishy, considering Pinera's unpopularity last time.
These polls, which had Pinera at/below 36%, saw them neck-to-neck in the second round; but, of course, if the left sects assemble around their candidate...

For the Congress the Right received awful 38.?%, but the Left is quite split.

[Deleted]

Chamber of Deputies (155) results:

Por Todo Chile 3.9 (1)
Pais 0.6% 0
Partido Progresista (PRO)​ 3.3% 1

Frente Amplio 16.5% (20)
Revolución Democrática (RD) 5.7% 10
Partido Humanista 4.2% 5
Partido Igualdad 2.2% 1
Partido Ecologista Verde (PEV) 2.1% 1
PODER 1.46% 1
Partido Liberal de Chile 0.8% 2

Sumemos 1.6% (0)
Amplitud 1.0% 0
Ciudadanos 0.5% 0
Todos 0.1% 0

Coalición Regionalista Verde 1.9% (4)
Federación Regionalista Verde Social (FREVS) 1.6% 4
Democracia Regional Patagónica (DRP) 0.3% 0

La Fuerza de la Mayoría 24.1% (43)
Partido Socialista de Chile (PS) 9.8% 19
Partido por la Democracia (PPD)6.1% 8
Partido Comunista de Chile (PCCh) 4.6% 8
Partido Radical Socialdemócrata (PRSD) 3.6% 8

Convergencia Democrática 10.7% (14)
Partido Demócrata Cristiano (PDC) 10.3% 14
MAS Región 0.2% 0
Izquierda Ciudadana (IC) 0.2% 0

Chile Vamos 38.7% (72)
Renovación Nacional (RN) 17.8% 36
Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI) 16.0% 30
Evolución Política (Evópoli) 4.3% 6
Partido Regionalista Independiente (PRI) 0.7% 0

Outside coalitions
Unión Patriótica (UPA) 0.9% 0
Partido de Trabajadores Revolucionarios (PTR) 0.1% 0

Indies 1.8% 1

Valid votes 89.84%
Blank 5.4%
Spoiled 4.76%

[Deleted]

Senate elections were held in regions I, II, IV, VI, IX, XI, and XIV (23 of 50 seats)

Results:

Por Todo Chile 1.4 (0)
Pais 0.4% 0
Partido Progresista (PRO)​ 1.0% 0

Frente Amplio 11.1% (1)
Partido Humanista 3.7% 0
Revolución Democrática (RD) 2.3% 1
Partido Liberal de Chile 1.7% 0
PODER 1.7% 0
Partido Igualdad 1.6% 0

Sumemos 6.8% (0)
Amplitud 3.8% 0
Ciudadanos 2.7% 0
Todos 0.3% 0

Coalición Regionalista Verde 0.2% (0)
Federación Regionalista Verde Social (FREVS) 0.1% 0
Democracia Regional Patagónica (DRP) 0.0% 0

La Fuerza de la Mayoría 22.8% (7)
Partido por la Democracia (PPD) 12.0% 4
Partido Socialista de Chile (PS) 7.5% 3
Partido Radical Socialdemócrata (PRSD) 2.1% 0
Partido Comunista de Chile (PCCh) 1.2% 0

Convergencia Democrática 14.3% (3)
Partido Demócrata Cristiano (PDC) 14.3% 3
MAS Región 0.0% 0

Chile Vamos 37.7% (12)
Renovación Nacional (RN) 21.0% 6
Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI) 12.7% 4
Evolución Política (Evópoli) 4.1% 2

Outside coalitions
Unión Patriótica (UPA) 0.4% 0

Indies 5.3% 0

Valid votes 91.59%
Blank 4.51%
Spoiled 3.9%

[Deleted]

As expected Beatriz Sánchez' Frente Amplio have declined to explicitly endorse Alejandro Guillier, and call on him to "get rid of ambiguous positions" on the pension system, education, constitutional reform and taxes in order to "search majorities among the citizens of Chile". They state that they are not the owners of their 1st round votes, and that "we trust in people and their ability to decide". 

Observers say that most Frente Amplio voters will end up voting for Guillier anyway, but it might still be decisive. 

[Deleted]

Beatriz Sanchez has endorsed Guillier.

[Deleted]

[Deleted]

www.emol.com/especiales/2017/actualidad/nacional/elecciones/resultados_2v.asp#19001

[Merseymike]

Chile appears to have entered a pattern of left and right alternation of this role.

[Deleted]

Dec 19, 2017 10:42:44 GMT Merseymike said:

Chile appears to have entered a pattern of left and right alternation of this role.

Such patterns are usually superficial. This wasn't a result of the centre-right being popular. Left candidates got a clear majority in the first round. It was Frente Amplio and other Hard Left voters staying home in the run-off that was the deciding factor. Chileans seem to think Sanchez would have edged out a win if she had made it to the run-off (higher turnout compensating for moderates going right). But basically one of the main left candidates was too centrist and the other too far left, if the left had had a more "middle of the road" candidate they would have won quite comfortably. 

[The Bishop]

Do you think that the right being able to wave the "Venezuela" shroud around with abandon is having an effect in Latin American elections now?

[Deleted]

Dec 19, 2017 11:04:19 GMT The Bishop said:

Do you think that the right being able to wave the "Venezuela" shroud around with abandon is having an effect in Latin American elections now?

Yes, definitely, but not as much in Chile/Argentina as in Brazil and Colombia where "castrochavismo" is the big bogeyman and Peru where it scares the Mestizo/Ladino middle class. Bolivia is too racially divided for it to be decisive (their leftist tradition has a strong indigenous rights basis, as does Peru but nearly half its Indians are "latinized" Ladinos), and the left remains popular in Ecuador based on their own results. 

Sanchez needed 2.5% more to get in the run-off, but Marco Enriquez-Ominami got 5.7% for the Democratic Socialist Progressive Party and two other "left-left" parties shared 0.9% (the bigger one being a Marxist-Leninist party). The Force of the Majority coalition that backed Gullier includes several Hard Left parties incl. the Communists. There are some internal "feuds" between Frente Amplio and other left wing parties. 

So it was fragmentation and an enthusiasm gap in the run-off that proved decisive (turnout went up 2.3% in the run-off, but it was centre-right/right voters that were mobilized and Hard Left voters that stayed home). Guiller seem to have been left wing enough to mobilize the right against him, but not left wing enough to motivate Frente Amplio supporters to vote for him.