SNP heading for disaster? Scotland votes No again.

[Adrian]

In a word, yes. The SNP politically really has no option but to take the chance on a second referendum, but if the result is negative again, the party will take a hit. Luckily for them, Labour is very weak at the moment, with weak leaders on both sides of the border, so the effects will be reduced accordingly. (This fact will have figured in Sturgeon's decision.) There is though the real prospect of the Tories picking up several seats in both parliaments.

[fourringcircus]

There would be no IndyRef3. The SNP would most likely fracture (to some degree) with nowhere for the politicians to go. The Tories would gloat, but they would be well minded to take care of where they extolled their triumphs. In a post Brexit world, the Scottish Parliament would likely be disolved by Westminster Tories. Scotland would cease to be anything more than a historical 'nation' and have the same place / relevance in the UK as somewhere like Yorkshire - it would simply become a region. I doubt if it would be such a nice place for southern imperialists to retire to either. Doomed by Brexit and compounded by a failure to regain their sovereignty, I hate to imagine which tangent might be followed by some of the less savoury characters in society. Someone with nothing to further lose could be the next McGuiness.

[Jack]

Mar 30, 2017 14:42:04 GMT fourringcircus said:

There would be no IndyRef3. The SNP would most likely fracture (to some degree) with nowhere for the politicians to go. The Tories would gloat, but they would be well minded to take care of where they extolled their triumphs. In a post Brexit world, the Scottish Parliament would likely be disolved by Westminster Tories. Scotland would cease to be anything more than a historical 'nation' and have the same place / relevance in the UK as somewhere like Yorkshire - it would simply become a region. I doubt if it would be such a nice place for southern imperialists to retire to either. Doomed by Brexit and compounded by a failure to regain their sovereignty, I hate to imagine which tangent might be followed by some of the less savoury characters in society. Someone with nothing to further lose could be the next McGuiness.

And then nuclear war breaks out and we all die.

[Pete Whitehead]

Mar 30, 2017 14:42:04 GMT fourringcircus said:

There would be no IndyRef3. The SNP would most likely fracture (to some degree) with nowhere for the politicians to go. The Tories would gloat, but they would be well minded to take care of where they extolled their triumphs. In a post Brexit world, the Scottish Parliament would likely be disolved by Westminster Tories. Scotland would cease to be anything more than a historical 'nation' and have the same place / relevance in the UK as somewhere like Yorkshire - it would simply become a region. I doubt if it would be such a nice place for southern imperialists to retire to either. Doomed by Brexit and compounded by a failure to regain their sovereignty, I hate to imagine which tangent might be followed by some of the less savoury characters in society. Someone with nothing to further lose could be the next McGuiness.

FTFY

[fourringcircus]

Mar 30, 2017 14:53:37 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

FTFY

[Tom]

Mar 30, 2017 14:54:38 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Mar 30, 2017 14:42:04 GMT fourringcircus said:

There would be no IndyRef3. The SNP would most likely fracture (to some degree) with nowhere for the politicians to go. The Tories would gloat, but they would be well minded to take care of where they extolled their triumphs. In a post Brexit world, the Scottish Parliament would likely be disolved by Westminster Tories. Scotland would cease to be anything more than a historical 'nation' and have the same place / relevance in the UK as somewhere like Yorkshire - it would simply become a region. I doubt if it would be such a nice place for southern imperialists to retire to either. Doomed by Brexit and compounded by a failure to regain their sovereignty, I hate to imagine which tangent might be followed by some of the less savoury characters in society. Someone with nothing to further lose could be the next McGuiness.

I strongly disagree with just about all of that. Abolishing the Scottish Parliament would be political suicide for the Conservatives in Scotland: they would be consigning all of their Westminster targets in Scotland over to other political parties (probably the SNP). Why would they want to dissolve the Parliament? What purpose does that serve other than furthering the case for Scottish independence? I'm against devolution but I accept that there's no turning back now.

I also don't believe that the SNP would fracture. Why would they? They would still have a clear goal to make Scotland independent (although it might not seem achievable after failing for a second time), a relatively solid base of 45-47% of the Scottish vote and no real pro-independence opposition. Realistically I could only see a small section of the SNP fracturing off from the main party in favour of remaining outside of the European Union: but honestly I can't see Europe splitting the party until Scotland becomes independent (if it ever does).

Would you still vote SNP after a second referendum on independence? If so there's a big thorn in your argument. 

Thing is I think many who voted Yes do not see Scottish Independence as the be all and end all. Ideally they would like Independence, but if the idea is dead for a generation I can see many of these less tribal people voting for other parties.

Following a second referendum defeat (and with a big bout of infighting) I can envision the SNP falling to 38-42% in the polls.

[fourringcircus]

Mar 30, 2017 14:54:38 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

I strongly disagree with just about all of that. Abolishing the Scottish Parliament would be political suicide for the Conservatives in Scotland: they would be consigning all of their Westminster targets in Scotland over to other political parties (probably the SNP). Why would they want to dissolve the Parliament? What purpose does that serve other than furthering the case for Scottish independence? I'm against devolution but I accept that there's no turning back now.

Not unusual for us to disagree!  How could it be political suicide?  Two No votes in succession would leave Scotland at the mercy of Westminster.  Regardless of whether or not the SNP could fill all the Scottish seats at Westminster, there would never be a Scottish PM (EVEL has taken care of that already).  The Scottish contingent would be just as powerless as they are at the moment and would probably have fewer seats after boundary changes too.  Closing Holyrood would make perfect sense as it would avoid the possibility of the situation we have today where the PM is over-riding the mandate of the SG.  In short, there would be nothing whatsoever that the Scottish polity could do about it.  It can't be suicide if it doesn't actually affect the party in London.

Mar 30, 2017 14:54:38 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Would you still vote SNP after a second referendum on independence? If so there's a big thorn in your argument. 

I wouldn't waste my time voting!

[iain]

Mar 30, 2017 11:48:43 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Currently the opinion polls and boundary changes in Scotland would imply that the Conservatives are on course to take somewhere in the region of 8-10 Scottish constituencies come 2020

[/div][/quote]

You've said this a few times, but is it actually true? With a result of 45-28 (which I think would be pretty good for the Cons) then you would only gain 1 constituency in the Scottish Parliament, and would only win 4 seats at Westminster based on universal swing. On the new boundaries, I'd probably take that down to 3.

[iain]

Mar 30, 2017 15:04:45 GMT fourringcircus said:

Mar 30, 2017 14:54:38 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

I strongly disagree with just about all of that. Abolishing the Scottish Parliament would be political suicide for the Conservatives in Scotland: they would be consigning all of their Westminster targets in Scotland over to other political parties (probably the SNP). Why would they want to dissolve the Parliament? What purpose does that serve other than furthering the case for Scottish independence? I'm against devolution but I accept that there's no turning back now.

Not unusual for us to disagree!  How could it be political suicide?  Two No votes in succession would leave Scotland at the mercy of Westminster.  Regardless of whether or not the SNP could fill all the Scottish seats at Westminster, there would never be a Scottish PM (EVEL has taken care of that already).  The Scottish contingent would be just as powerless as they are at the moment and would probably have fewer seats after boundary changes too.  Closing Holyrood would make perfect sense as it would avoid the possibility of the situation we have today where the PM is over-riding the mandate of the SG.  In short, there would be nothing whatsoever that the Scottish polity could do about it.  It can't be suicide if it doesn't actually affect the party in London.

Mar 30, 2017 14:54:38 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Would you still vote SNP after a second referendum on independence? If so there's a big thorn in your argument. 

I wouldn't waste my time voting!

Of course the Scottish Parliament wouldn't be abolished. It is now essentially entrenched in the U.K. constitution.

[fourringcircus]

Mar 30, 2017 14:54:38 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Abolishing the Scottish Parliament would be political suicide for the Conservatives in Scotland

David Mundel said:

"I said this in autumn, this will be a significant change for the Scottish parliament because devolution to Scotland and other parts of the UK was predicated on membership of the EU, we won't be in the EU and therefore that will bring change with it"

The easiest way for London to rid themselves of the 'problem of the Scots' would be to disolve Holyrood on a whim after Brexit. Nobody could stop it from happening and even if Scotland were to have a full house of SNP MP's in Westminster, it wouldn't matter a jot.

[Lord Twaddleford]

In the event of a second "No to Scottish independence" vote in a post-EU Britain, the notion that the Scottish Parliament strikes me as presposterous. If any of the two devolved mainland legislatures are abolished, it's more likely that the Welsh Assembly will be the one to go, and I don't think that's bloody likely either! Though, now that the notion has been brought up, if Holyrood does get the chop, where does that leave Cardiff Bay (assuming it doesn't get axed first)?

[Jack]

Mar 30, 2017 15:12:29 GMT fourringcircus said:

Mar 30, 2017 14:54:38 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Abolishing the Scottish Parliament would be political suicide for the Conservatives in Scotland

David Mundel said:

"I said this in autumn, this will be a significant change for the Scottish parliament because devolution to Scotland and other parts of the UK was predicated on membership of the EU, we won't be in the EU and therefore that will bring change with it"

The easiest way for London to rid themselves of the 'problem of the Scots' would be to disolve Holyrood on a whim after Brexit. Nobody could stop it from happening and even if Scotland were to have a full house of SNP MP's in Westminster, it wouldn't matter a jot.

Why would the Conservative & UNIONIST party do something that would almost guarantee the separation of the UK?

[fourringcircus]

Mar 30, 2017 15:22:16 GMT Jack said:

Why would the Conservative & UNIONIST party do something that would almost guarantee the separation of the UK?

With no Scottish Parliament and just a small group of troublesome MP's in Westminster, who the hell would be able to separate the UK?

[carlton43]

If faced with the choice then many people will take a position and think about it more deeply for a while. 20% get excited at each end of the choice. 60% not really that concerned about a second failure of referendum. Move on and think about tea and holidays. The Unionists rejoice, take more heart and work harder for more seats. The Separatists are despondent with many giving up on the party and even on politics altogether.

Next elections at each level sees a drop in TO mainly because of disillusioned former SNP supporters. Main beneficiaries to start with will be Conservatives. They will gain quite a lot of seats. Other parties fewer seats at first. If there is a transition to new leadership in the SNP (and there might not be?) and it remains stolid and solid with continuing good organization, then the problems will be a drop in candidate numbers and quality, a drop in income and members, and a drop in active pavement support. That will result in losses which will be heavy in places.

The SNP then needs to morph into more than a separatist party with a raft of longer term policies and to make up its mind whether to be Centre Left or Centre Right. It has to opt for the former as so many on the right are Unionist. That will be a serious problem for Labour as the SNP will be seen by many to be a more efficient and more effective and less extreme socialist party than Labour.

The consequent loss of the Right and Centre Right out of the SNP should prove to be a massive benefit to the Conservatives and to a lesser extent the LDs. There will be a significant realignment of the Borders, South West, Tayside, NW and Highlands. The Central Lowlands will be a major battle ground between SNP and Labour. SNP Westminster representation likely to fall off a cliff as being irrelevant.

Conservative and Labour fortunes will fluctuate according to who is in power at Westminster. That will affect Labour more severely than the Conservatives. The SNP will be increasingly judged on how well it does at Holyrood. A really bad period for the SNP at Holyrood coupled with an unpopular Conservative Government at Westminster will be the major possibly entry point for a Labour re-invention.

[fourringcircus]

Mar 30, 2017 15:28:14 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

This is really daft scare-mongering. Stop being so relentlessly negative, never going to happen (and I'm pretty sure you know that )   

That's exactly what I was going to say in response to your opening post!!!

[fourringcircus]

Not wishing to be partisan, I've done the same, although I'm sure it's not the first time. You must have said something sensible that I liked before!!

EDIT:  Just gone back to check and I have indeed liked one of your posts before.

[Tom]

For the Conservatives to come first in a Scottish Parliament election I guess they would have to be winning constituencies such as Clydesdale, the Highland constituencies, East Lothian, all of Aberdeenshire and Angus, all of Edinburgh bar the East and North etc. Is this at all plausible?

[Pete Whitehead]

Hamilton ?!

[The Bishop]

This is emerging as a not uncommon CyberNat meme - can we expect "VOTE YES OR HOLYROOD GETS IT!" to be a major Nat scare tactic during IndyRef 2?

[johnr]

Apr 1, 2017 12:10:21 GMT The Bishop said:

This is emerging as a not uncommon CyberNat meme - can we expect "VOTE YES OR HOLYROOD GETS IT!" to be a major Nat scare tactic during IndyRef 2?

Already happening. Apparently, we will be punished for voting No. (Although they said that last time as well - I'm still waiting for our NHS to be privatised).