South Korean Presidential Election 2017

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To be held on 9 May (almost certainly, but not finally confirmed). The presidential candidates will have 23 days to campaign, which means the parties will have 37 days to finalize their candidate selection.

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The latest Realmeter poll has Minjoo with a decisive lead, and its hard to see a non-Minjoo candidate winning at this point. So the question is who wins their nomination.

Minjoo 47.2
Korea Freedom Party 14.4 (continuity Saenuri)
People's Party 10.7
Bareun Party 6.6 (Saenuri rebels)
Justice Party 5.3

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PM and acting president Hwang Kyo-ahn is polling in 2nd now and is clearly the strongest candidate the "Korea Freedom Party" (or "the party formerly known as Saenuri") could field, but its unclear whether he will run. If he does he has to step down at least 30 days before the election and let Deputy PM and Finance Minister Yoo Il-ho take over as acting president.

But Hwang is in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation as he will be seen as "irresponsible" if he steps down and run, and many in the opposition says he should step down regardless of whether he runs since they don't trust him to secure fair elections and call him a "Park collaborator", he could even become a subject of the investigation himself. Hwang stopped the independent counsel's investigation into the scandal last week and had previously blocked attempts to search the offices of aides to Park inside Cheong Wa Dae (= abusing his authority to protect Park). He is also an ex-posecutor and the opposition say he helped cover up the National Intelligence Service's meddling in the 2012 presidential election.

The Realmeter poll from Thursday had this Top 3:

Moon 36.1
Hwang 14.2
Governor An 12.9

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Is it theoretically possible for the recently ousted President to put her name forward?

[The Bishop]

No, pretty sure she is excluded.

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Mar 11, 2017 12:47:01 GMT swanarcadian said:

Is it theoretically possible for the recently ousted President to put her name forward?

No, the president is term limited to one term, and after being impeached her term has ended.

Even if she could run it would be utterly pointless. She has a segment of loyalists, but her name is toxic among the general public, and the main problem for Hwang is that he tried a little too hard to protect her. 

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The left-populist mayor of South Korea's 2nd city Seongnam, Lee Jae-Myung, is probably the greatest threat to Moon by now (as its hard to see him being blocked by the right). He wants to break of the chaebol (family run business conglomerates) and introduce a basic income to the youth and elderly paid for by land taxes. 

koreaexpose.com/lee-jae-myung-populist-leftwing-unapologetic

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-24/harnessing-trump-and-sanders-korean-populist-rises-in-poll

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The election has been called for May 9 (as expected). PM and acting president Hwang Kyo-ahn has declared he will not run for president.

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As the election has now been declared I will post the latest Realmeter poll to have a baseline of sorts for discussion:

The Minjoo primary (likely more interesting than the general election). Only three candidates matter.

Moon Jae-in 52.7% (centre)
Governor Ahn Hee-jung 22.5% (moderate)
Lee Jae-myung 21.9% (leftist/populist)

The Realmeter poll has a ridiculously small sample (as it was a subsample of their general poll). R&Search from a month ago with an 1,100+ sample has:

Moon Jae-in 38.0%
Governor Ahn Hee-jung 29.8%
Lee Jae-myung 15.5%

Realmeter general poll:

Sim Sang-jung (Justice Party leader) 3.3%

Minjoo candidates: 60.2%
Lee Jae-myung 9.7%
Moon Jae-in 36.0%
Ahn Hee-jung 14.5%

People's Party candidates: 13.9%
Ahn Cheol-soo 11.3%
Sohn Hak-kyu 2.6%

Conservatives: 15.9% (combined)

PM Hwang Kyo-ahn 10.1% (independent, not running)

Bareun: 3.4%
Yoo Seong-min 2.4%
Nam Kyung-pil 1.0%

Korea Freedom Party: 2.4%
Hong Jun-pyo 2.4%

If Moon Jae-in is the Minjoo candidate he will become the next president (barring some crazy scandal) and the same goes for Governor Ahn. If Lee Jae-myung somehow manages to win the Minjoo primary moderate and conservative voters will coalesce around an "anti-Lee" (hard to predict who that would be), but in the current climate he would likely still win. 

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The two Conservative parties and the the People's Party want to hold a constitutional referendum alongside the presidential election, but Minjoo want it to be postponed to the local elections in 2018. The three parties will now try to lure MPs from the anti-Moon faction in Minjoo to join them, but they need a 2/3 majority to get constitutional reform on the ballot.

"Three political parties agreed Wednesday to push for a referendum on constitutional revision for a new presidential system on the same day as the presidential election, May 9. However, the prospect for the referendum appears to be uncertain at the moment because the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), the largest political party, and its leading presidential contender Moon Jae-in are opposed to the idea. On the other hand, the Liberty Korea Party (LKP), the Bareun Party and the People's Party said their floor leaders had reached a consensus to hold the referendum alongside the election.

While the current Constitution sets the presidential term at five years and does not allow a consecutive term, the parties seek to adjust it to four years and to allow two consecutive terms. They also agreed to adopt a semi-presidential system, in which the president takes charge of foreign affairs and security and the National Assembly approved prime minister takes care of domestic affairs."

www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/03/356_225727.html

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I haven't updated this, but Moon won the Minjoo primary, but is now facing competition from Peoples Party leader Ahn Cheol-soo, who has attracted large amounts of Conservatives voters in order to pass Moon Jae-in.

Ahn has emphasizedthat he never participated in street rallies that led to the ouster of Park Geun-hye and retracted his previous opposition to the planned deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). His campaign strategy of trying to rally support from conservative voters could agitate his liberal base in the SW Jeolla region and Greater Seoul.

"Ahn has presented himself as an icon of social integration unlike Moon, who has called for wide-ranging reforms of the established order. As the rivalry between the two candidates heats up, Moon defined Ahn and his followers as "old evils" to be swept up. "This presidential race is a confrontation between myself in changing political power and Ahn in extending the corrupted regime."

www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/04/356_227145.html

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For the first time there will be early voting for a presidential election. It will be on May 4 and 5 and according to a National Election Commission (NEC) poll 17.1 percent of eligible voters say they will vote during the two-day early voting period. It was 12.2% at the parliamentary election last year.

Young people are over represented among early voters (ca. 1,5 times the average) and they skew Liberal, so the early voting turnout will be significant.

For the first time it will be legal for voters to disclose their vote by taking photos of the ballot, and this expected to influence the narrative of the final days.

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Polling averages. Moon (Blue), Ahn (Green), Hong (Red), Justice Party leader Sim (Yellow) and Bareun candidate Yoo (Light Blue). The Conservatives have defected from Ahn again and his miserable performance in the debates have caused the rest. Trump medling in the Korea conflict has generally strengthened the left. 

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"Over a quarter of eligible voters cast ballots during the two-day early voting for the May 9 presidential election. Some 11.07 million people or 26.06 percent of the total electorate voted Thursday and Friday, according to the National Election Commission (NEC).

The voter turnout is a record high since early voting was introduced in 2014. The overall turnout rate was 12.2 percent in the 2016 general election and 11.5 percent in the 2014 local elections."

www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2017/05/356_228874.html

This should guarantee a Moon victory (which already looked certain).

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The first exit polls after voting closed at 8pm gave Moon 41.4% and a substantial lead over all other candidates. Despite heavy rain over 70% of voters had cast their ballot an hour before polls closed, and it looks like a record turnout. 

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South Korea will get a new North Korea policy, and its relations to the US will be more critical, which will likely lead to friction with the Trump administration. Moon's family hails from the north and he has always empathized with the NK civilian population. 

"A Moon Jae-in presidency would represent a real shift in attitude towards North Korea. His policy is to increase contact with North Korea, in contrast to the tighter sanctions of the last ten years. He is unhappy about the deployment of a US anti-missile system on South Korean soil."

"The son of refugees from North Korea, Mr Moon was jailed while a student in the 1970s for leading protests against military ruler Park Chung-hee - Ms Park's father. Later, he served in South Korea's special forces before becoming a human rights lawyer."

www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-39855956

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Exit poll by age


Exit polls by region.

Dark Blue = Moon Jae-In (Minjoo)
Red = Hong Jun-Pyo (Korea Freedom Party)
Green = Ahn Cheol-Soo (People's Party)
Light Blue = Yoo Seung-Min (Bareun)
Yellow= Sim Sang-Jeung (Justice Party)

Hong won the core conservative regions in the SE (Gyeongsang and Daegu), but Moon won everything else, incl. Busan and Ulsan metro areas in the SE. 

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Minjoo only has 125 seats, so Moon needs the People's Party to have a majority in parliament, and he has spend most of the presidential race attacking Ahn, so it might not be easy.

The current distribution is:

Liberals and Progressives: 166
Justice 6
Minjoo 120
People's Party 40

Conservatives: 128
Bareun 20
Korea Freedom Party 107
Saenuri 1 

Indies 5 (all centre-right IIRC)

[John Chanin]

May 9, 2017 17:04:16 GMT @odo said:

Exit poll by age

Dark Blue = Moon Jae-In (Minjoo)
Red = Hong Jun-Pyo (Korea Freedom Party)
Green = Ahn Cheol-Soo (People's Party)
Light Blue = Yoo Seung-Min (Bareun)
Yellow= Sim Sang-Jeung (Justice Party)

Hong won the core conservative regions in the SE (Gyeongsang and Daegu), but Moon won everything else, incl. Busan and Ulsan metro areas in the SE. 

I've only just seen this quite extraordinary chart.  has there ever been such a large age difference anywhere?   Looks like the Freedom party (or whatever it decides to call itself next) is literally dying.

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May 11, 2017 9:12:04 GMT John Chanin said:

May 9, 2017 17:04:16 GMT @odo said:

Exit poll by age

Dark Blue = Moon Jae-In (Minjoo)
Red = Hong Jun-Pyo (Korea Freedom Party)
Green = Ahn Cheol-Soo (People's Party)
Light Blue = Yoo Seung-Min (Bareun)
Yellow= Sim Sang-Jeung (Justice Party)

Hong won the core conservative regions in the SE (Gyeongsang and Daegu), but Moon won everything else, incl. Busan and Ulsan metro areas in the SE. 

I've only just seen this quite extraordinary chart.  has there ever been such a large age difference anywhere?   Looks like the Freedom party (or whatever it decides to call itself next) is literally dying.

This is an extraordinary election given that Saenuri have been so thoroughly discredited and its hard to say how it will play out long term (will the Conservatives remain split in two parties and will the moderates stick with the People's Party etc.). A large segment of older Koreans will always vote Conservative (especially in the east), those are the people who backed the military dictatorship and are deeply suspicious of the Liberals. Younger generations do not have the same loyalty, even if they have right wing opinions. During the campaign Hong had lost almost all voters below 50, but after Ahn flopped in the debates he became the main anti-Moon candidate and regained some. Bareun seems to have flopped and clearly failed to replace "The Party Formerly Known as Saenuri" as the main Conservative force. The loyalists preferred the real deal. The dictatorship was dominated by officers from Gyeongsang (especially North Gyeongsang) and Hong won those provinces.