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Post by lbarnes on Mar 17, 2017 16:42:21 GMT
What is really instructive is that when Labour are in opposition nationally anyone could consider a mere 12% drop in their vote as some sort of positive. Compared to the past few weeks, a mere 12% drop is a definite improvement. It's not an improvement but a less drastic decline. |
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Post by andrew111 on Mar 17, 2017 19:20:44 GMT
Some truth in that tbh, though Labour was dropping share in some local by-elections even at the height of Blairite dominance in the mid 90s. The fact that the LibDems actually fought a campaign here this time, after not bothering in the last few contests, meant their share was always likely to go up even without their uptick more generally. Presumably the Greens also fought a campaign? |
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Post by yellowperil on Mar 17, 2017 20:03:25 GMT
Some truth in that tbh, though Labour was dropping share in some local by-elections even at the height of Blairite dominance in the mid 90s. The fact that the LibDems actually fought a campaign here this time, after not bothering in the last few contests, meant their share was always likely to go up even without their uptick more generally. Presumably the Greens also fought a campaign? Quite. Surely Labour benefited in Newcastle from a divided opposition, with the Greens in possession of the lead opposition role but an apparent inability to maximise their position in by-elections, while the Lib Dems, probably with better organisation but with a rather mixed local history, still had a lot of ground to make up. This is therefore a much more complicated story than Sunderland where the Lib Dems could come in almost unfettered and almost from nowhere. Anyway, Sunderland is very different from Newcastle and it would be very dangerous to make any argument from one to the other. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2017 0:01:44 GMT
Haggard de Toni is just too brilliant to be true. I think I may have spent two weeks of my young life there with the school cadet force, rushing about on what was then an army battle training school. If so it was interesting and very beautiful. Brings back memories of the best ward name poll ran here a few years ago, where Haggard de Toni won the East of England region. It got to the national quarterfinals - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FRlFJ1oBiUcDXDMw7AtI3A2tGS2seQfbnYeBhvGq7iM/edit?usp=sharingI have an idea for another competition which I shall be running after May 4th. Watch this space. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 18, 2017 0:04:16 GMT
Looking forward to it already  |
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Post by middleenglander on Mar 18, 2017 0:24:33 GMT
Blackpool, Warbreck - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Conservative | 728 | 54.8% | +17.5% | +17.4% | +8.9% | +8.1% | Labour | 468 | 35.2% | +6.3% | +7.0% | +4.8% | +4.8% | UKIP | 75 | 5.6% | -13.4% | -13.8% | -3.4% | 3.7% | Liberal Democrat | 57 | 4.3% | -2.8% | -3.0% | -4.8% | -3.5% | Green |
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| -7.5% | -7.7% | -5.5% | -5.7% | Total votes | 1,328 |
| 40% | 41% | 65% | 67% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 5½% since 2015 and2% / 1½% since 2011
Council now 29 Labour, 13 Conservative
Breckland, Saham Toney - Conservative hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 335 | 48.1% | -2.7% | -2.0% | Liberal Democrat | 105 | 15.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent | 104 | 14.9% | -20.1% | -18.8% | UKIP | 80 | 11.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Labour | 72 | 10.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -17.5% | -19.5% | Total votes | 696 |
| 30% | 33% |
Since if meaningful UKIP to Conservative ~ 8½% since 2015
Council now 41 Conservative, 4 UKIP, 2 Labour, 1 Independent, 1 Unionist
Newcastle upon Tyne, South Heaton - Labour hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 768 | 46.8% | -11.8% | -1.6% | -5.4% | -22.6% | Green | 444 | 27.1% | +1.7% | -1.3% | +2.3% | +14.8% | Liberal Democrat | 260 | 15.9% | +11.5% | +9.2% | +9.6% | +6.6% | UKIP | 88 | 5.4% | -1.5% | -1.1% | -4.6% | from nowhere | Conservative | 80 | 4.9% | +0.2% | -3.7% | +0.2% | +0.1% | TUSC |
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| -1.4% | -2.1% | -4.3% | Total votes | 1,640 |
| 72% | 40% | 78% | 96% |
Swing Labour to Green ~ 6¾ since 2016, ~ 3¾ since 2014, ~ 18¾% since 2012 but little change since 2015
Council now 55 Labour, 20 Liberal Democrat, 3 Independent
South Ribble, Walton-le-Dale East - Conservative hold, although previous Councillor was sitting as Independent | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Conservative | 359 | 49.4% | -5.1% | -3.1% | Labour | 262 | 36.0% | -9.4% | -11.4% | Liberal Democrat | 106 | 14.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 727 |
| 35% | 37% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 2% / 4% since 2015
Council now 29 Conservative, 18 Labour, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Independent Labour
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 18, 2017 11:53:38 GMT
Some truth in that tbh, though Labour was dropping share in some local by-elections even at the height of Blairite dominance in the mid 90s. The fact that the LibDems actually fought a campaign here this time, after not bothering in the last few contests, meant their share was always likely to go up even without their uptick more generally. Presumably the Greens also fought a campaign? They certainly did, hence slightly improving their share when the norm is for them to go backwards in council by-elections. |
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